PS3 Possible Holiday Masturbatory Speculation

So far, the PS3 has shit lined up for the holiday, after a very strong beginning of the year (Heavy Rain, God of War III, White Knight, Final Fantasy yes I know is not exclusive, but it will sell much better on PS3). That can't possibly stay that way, can it? I suppose it's possible Sony sees Halo Reach, Natal, possibly Gears and (in my opinion) Crackdown II in August and just said "y'know what? Fuck it. It's not even worth trying to compete with that, we'll just sell 3rd party stuff this holiday and not waste our money." 
However, I sure hope that's not the case. Also, number 1 is a guarantee, I think. Anyway... here I... go?

List items

  • Probability: 100% A lot of people are all pissed off about this being delayed again. I will join you... if when this releases this holiday it doesn't have rewind and custom liveries. If it does, then fuck all you whiners. But, yeah; it makes all the sense in the world for Sony to move this, their biggest exclusive left, to the holiday since they currently have nothing we know of planned. And if that delay makes the game significantly better: Great!

  • Probability: 50%. The third one. I'm not sure it's a good idea if there is both a new Halo and a new Gears. If it's just Reach, maybe, if Killzone 3 can jump a couple of months earlier, or later.

  • Probablity: 30%. There was some leaked information about a billboard advertising this in a movie and that movie wasn't slated to come out until 2011... or something like that. Insomniac has to be working on something for this year though, right? They always have a release every year, and now they have TWO studios. Hm. New IP? That'd be great. Fap.

  • Probability: 30%. This title has only had its name leaked, still, to this day. But... man.

  • Probability: 75% How could I forget about this!? Mmm... dead griffin.

  • Probability: 60%, though I thought that last year. I don't know what's taking so long. Heh, but you know what would be great? If it came out the same time aaassss...

  • Probability: 70%. Rockstar exclusive, and Jack Tretton did say it was going to be a holiday 2010 title. I think. Would Rockstar AND Jacky Bear lie to me?

  • Probability: 75%. This would be higher if, again, I hadn't thought this was a sure thing LAST YEAR.

  • Probability: 20%. I just don't think this is going to come out this holiday. I think they'll wait. I'm probably totally wrong though and they're going to release it to try and spur Move.