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meteora3255

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3 reasons the Golden State Warriors will win the NBA Championship

Before the season started it seemed like we were destined for Cavs-Warriors III. While the Cavaliers haven’t looked like a contender recently, the Warriors have rolled. Golden State has easily locked up the number one overall seed and home court all the way through the Finals. It may not be shocking, and the NBA rarely is during the playoffs, but Golden State will win the NBA Finals and these three factors are a big reason why.

1. They can weather the storm

In late February Kevin Durant went down with a knee injury. At the time, Durant was the Warriors leading scorer at 25.7 point per game (he has since been overtaken by Stephen Curry). Durant missed a little over a month at a crucial moment in the playoff race. If you went to any team still fighting for playoff seeding and told them they would lose their leading scorer for a month it would incite panic.

Instead, the Warriors have thrived, going 20-5 while Durant was out between Feb. 28 and April 5. The Warriors weren’t just beating cupcakes during that time either. Without Durant, they have two wins over Houston, a win over San Antonio and wins over several other playoff caliber teams. Overall without Durant they have gone 8-4 against playoff teams, assuming Chicago makes it in the East.

When the Warriors signed Durant in the offseason it was coming off a collapse in the NBA Finals. A lot of that collapse was attributed to Curry’s nagging injury along with Draymond Green’s suspension. The Durant signing was insurance. Over the course of a tight seven game series even one bad quarter can spell doom. If one of their All-Stars gets hurt, has a bad game or gets shut down they have enough firepower to push on. So far, the Warriors have shown they can withstand losing one of their stars.

2. They have the best player

In the playoffs games can often be decided by a small number of possessions. It’s during those moments that it helps to have a guy that can get buckets, especially late in the shot clock. Durant gives the Warriors exactly that. On top of that he has become a defensive force this season.

Caught up in Russell Westbrook and James Harden’s historic seasons, it’s easy to forget that Durant has put up MVP worthy numbers himself. Per 36 minutes Durant is averaging 26.9 points, 8.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 1.2 steals and 1.7 blocks per game. Those numbers are similar to LeBron’s averages during his 2012 and 2013 MVP campaigns, with Durant trading some assists for blocks. The point is that Durant is the best player on the best team and any other year that would have him near the top of the MVP balloting.

It’s not just traditional stats that show how good Durant is. Based on stats from Basketball Reference, with Durant off the court the Warriors have a net rating of 7.9. That would still be good for best in the league but the jump with Durant is mind boggling. When Durant is on the floor the Warriors net rating is 15.1, which is almost double that of the number two Spurs. Simply put, the Warriors can feel confident they have the best player in almost every matchup.

3. They are the best team

Golden State rounds this all out by being the best team by any metric. If you want to just look at raw numbers, Golden State has the league’s best record, currently at 66-15, and the best point differential with 11.59. If you want to dip into more advanced stats, the Warriors lead the league in offensive rating and are second in defensive rating based on Basketball Reference numbers. They are the only team in the top five in both categories. Lastly, the Warriors net rating is 11.45 while the second-place Spurs sport a 7.58. For comparison, the Spurs are closer to the sixth-place Raptors than they are the Warriors.

No matter how you cut it, it’s hard to find a place where Golden State will be at a disadvantage in the playoffs. They have more All-Stars, the best player and the best team plus home court advantage. Barring injury they should be the clear favorite. Even then, it may still take a Herculean effort to knock them off.

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13 Comments

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rorie

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It's going to be an interesting playoffs. If the Cavs keep playing like they do and lose to the Celtics or someone, which seems entirely possible, then there's going to be a LOT of shit-talking on both them and the Warriors if they wind up winning the championship (didn't someone a couple years ago shit-talk the Warriors after winning because "well, they didn't play US" or something like that?) without having played the Cavs.

Regardless, the Warriors are playing well. Certainly well enough to win four out of seven games on any team if they execute. The one thing that I've noticed about Curry and some of the rest of the players is that they tend to get showboaty when they feel bored though, which results in some really weird losses to bad teams. We'll see what happens!

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meteora3255

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Edited By meteora3255

@rorie: You are thinking about the Clippers. Doc Rivers said the Warriors lucked out in avoiding the Spurs and Clippers after the title in 2015.

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rorie

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@rorie: You are thinking about the Clippers. Doc Rivers said the Warriors lucked out in avoiding the Spurs and Clippers after the title in 2015.

Yep, that was on the tip of my tongue. I mean, the Spurs are definitely going to give the Warriors a run any time they play, but I think they beat the Clips two of three times that year?

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notnert427

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1 reason they might not: The San Antonio Spurs. I won't even disagree that the Warriors have the most talented group of starters overall, but they remind me of some recent Clippers teams that were similarly loaded. There's a difference between having a collection of talent and having a team. The Warriors are more the former than the latter. There's an argument that Kawhi Leonard is the best overall player in the NBA, but that's not what makes the Spurs dangerous. It's the same thing we've seen from the franchise for so many years; it's unselfish team play.

Curry, Durant, and Thompson are tremendous players, but they all are prone to trying to "take over" games every now and then. They're all shooters, for better and worse. It generally works out because they rarely all go cold and as such, they can typically just outscore the opposition, but playoff basketball is a different animal. I'm not entirely sold on the Warrior defense because it leans heavily on Draymond Green, who is fairly easy to get into foul trouble. The Spurs can offer the defense to limit their scoring, and the Warriors already tend to get frustrated at times. I'm not saying Golden State can't just talent their way to the championship as they may very well do, but I just don't see it being some sure thing, and the Spurs won't just lay down for them.

This is all, of course, assuming the Warriors and Spurs take care of business until they meet. I'm not chalking that up just yet, either, as the Western Conference has several really good teams. Meanwhile, I fully expect the Eastern Conference to just high-five LeBron on his way to the championship series once again. Must be nice.

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meteora3255

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@notnert427: Saying that the Warriors can only hope "talent their way to the championship" or that they just "typically outscore their opposition" sells them extremely short. They have a system in place and have been running that system with most of these players for the last few years. They have consistently been elite on both sides of the ball, even in the playoffs. The Warriors aren't just rolling the balls out.

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CJduke

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It would be crazy if the Celtics could somehow pull it off and win the whole thing but I doubt they will. Even still Isiah Thomas is such an incredible player. He's 5'9 and somehow averages 29 points a game. Always amazes me when I watch him. Reminds me of why I loved Iverson so much back in the day.

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Qrowdyy

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Edited By Qrowdyy
@rorie said:

Regardless, the Warriors are playing well. Certainly well enough to win four out of seven games on any team if they execute. The one thing that I've noticed about Curry and some of the rest of the players is that they tend to get showboaty when they feel bored though, which results in some really weird losses to bad teams. We'll see what happens!

I feel like while a lot of teams ramp up their level of play when the playoffs start, the Warriors seem to do the opposite. No matter how stratospheric their regular season was GS always seems to come back down to earth a little when the playoffs start. So that's a concern.

I think its because the increased physicality of the playoffs doesn't mesh well with the Warriors finesse style. Regular season fouls are just good defense in the playoffs(something which resulted in a lot of whining from GS fans last year).

I feel like OKC exposed how to to beat the Warriors(the smaller, weaker team) last year. Out Rebound, Out Defend, Out Hustle. Easier said than done, of course, and with the Cavs dogging it recently maybe the only team of the same caliber as last years OKC team(other than GS) is the Spurs.

@meteora3255 said:

2. They have the best player

Yeah ok. I'm gonna call fanboy on that one. No coach in their right mind would take KD over Lebron(This is coming from a Rockets fan). Is KD having a great regular season, undoubtedly. Is KD benefiting greatly from playing in the Warriors system, of course. This is also why he's not being considered for MVP because the 2 guys that are legitimate candidates have achieved a great deal while working with a lot less.

The thing Durant doesn't do that Lebron does, is elevate his teammates. This has a lot to do with KD's somewhat suspect Basketball IQ(something which Lebron is universally praised for). KD just isn't a leader. He's a silent assassin. When he takes charge he often makes the wrong decisions. For example, OKC could have easily won last years Western Conference Finals, if KD didn't start playing hero ball in the waning moments of a couple of games.

Durant is a strong contender for second best player though :)

Also I more or less agree with your other points. Although I wouldn't place so much faith in regular season stats. We've seen teams completely change their dynamic/identity in April/May before. The playoffs are For Real, in a way the regular season isn't.

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meteora3255

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Edited By meteora3255

@qrowdyy: I don't really believe Durant is the best player either. The point I was going for was that with the exception of the Cavs the Warriors can feel confident they have the best player on the court against any given opponent. Is there something to debate there? Certainly, but it's not unreasonable for the Warriors to think that.

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Qrowdyy

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This is all, of course, assuming the Warriors and Spurs take care of business until they meet. I'm not chalking that up just yet, either, as the Western Conference has several really good teams. Meanwhile, I fully expect the Eastern Conference to just high-five LeBron on his way to the championship series once again. Must be nice.

Dude, the eastern conference is such a shitshow. Lebron has been in the last six finals. SIX. Lets get some new blood in there. smh

Curry, Durant, and Thompson are tremendous players, but they all are prone to trying to "take over" games every now and then. They're all shooters, for better and worse. It generally works out because they rarely all go cold and as such, they can typically just outscore the opposition, but playoff basketball is a different animal. I'm not entirely sold on the Warrior defense because it leans heavily on Draymond Green, who is fairly easy to get into foul trouble. The Spurs can offer the defense to limit their scoring, and the Warriors already tend to get frustrated at times. I'm not saying Golden State can't just talent their way to the championship as they may very well do, but I just don't see it being some sure thing, and the Spurs won't just lay down for them.

That's very much traditional basketball wisdom talking. A jump shooting team can't win a championship. Its been 100% accurate in the past. Except the Warriors have bucked that trend, they're the exception to the rule. Which is why everyone's being throwing around superlatives about them for the past 2 years(remember when people were seriously debating whether Curry was better than Jordan last season, HAH!). The Warriors do go cold on occasion, but not often enough to bank on for a 7 game series. Barring some kind of mental collapse the Spurs will have to flat out beat the Warriors when they're clicking on all cylinders at least twice to win that matchup.

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Deathstriker

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@qrowdyy said:
@rorie said:

Regardless, the Warriors are playing well. Certainly well enough to win four out of seven games on any team if they execute. The one thing that I've noticed about Curry and some of the rest of the players is that they tend to get showboaty when they feel bored though, which results in some really weird losses to bad teams. We'll see what happens!

I feel like while a lot of teams ramp up their level of play when the playoffs start, the Warriors seem to do the opposite. No matter how stratospheric their regular season was GS always seems to come back down to earth a little when the playoffs start. So that's a concern.

I think its because the increased physicality of the playoffs doesn't mesh well with the Warriors finesse style. Regular season fouls are just good defense in the playoffs(something which resulted in a lot of whining from GS fans last year).

I feel like OKC exposed how to to beat the Warriors(the smaller, weaker team) last year. Out Rebound, Out Defend, Out Hustle. Easier said than done, of course, and with the Cavs dogging it recently maybe the only team of the same caliber as last years OKC team(other than GS) is the Spurs.

@meteora3255 said:

2. They have the best player

Yeah ok. I'm gonna call fanboy on that one. No coach in their right mind would take KD over Lebron(This is coming from a Rockets fan). Is KD having a great regular season, undoubtedly. Is KD benefiting greatly from playing in the Warriors system, of course. This is also why he's not being considered for MVP because the 2 guys that are legitimate candidates have achieved a great deal while working with a lot less.

The thing Durant doesn't do that Lebron does, is elevate his teammates. This has a lot to do with KD's somewhat suspect Basketball IQ(something which Lebron is universally praised for). KD just isn't a leader. He's a silent assassin. When he takes charge he often makes the wrong decisions. For example, OKC could have easily won last years Western Conference Finals, if KD didn't start playing hero ball in the waning moments of a couple of games.

Durant is a strong contender for second best player though :)

Also I more or less agree with your other points. Although I wouldn't place so much faith in regular season stats. We've seen teams completely change their dynamic/identity in April/May before. The playoffs are For Real, in a way the regular season isn't.

Yeah, KD is a better shooter than LBJ, but LBJ is a better all around player due to his passing, scoring in the post, defense, more durable, and leadership. If Lebron had Westbrook, Harden, and others on his team he would've won a chip, "tamed" Westbrook rather than running from him, and kept them together as long as they were winning. Seems like KD "just wants to play ball", while LBJ looks at it more as a business and "his team" since he's part coach and GM too. Warriors will probably win... Cavs and maybe Spurs are the only teams that can really stop them, which makes KD leaving to the Warriors such a lame move. Him going to Celtics, Clippers, Heat, etc would've been more interesting for the league.

I dislike the Warriors since Draymond is a straight up dirty player. Much like Bruce Bowen, which is one of the reasons I used to hate the Spurs. Plus Curry is cocky in such a 10 year old way (running around the court with his arms out like he's an airplane) it's pretty annoying. They're all highly skilled, but unlikable IMO.

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mems1224

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Edited By mems1224

Of course theyll win. Anything less than a chip from them this season would be a complete and utter failure. The only team I can see giving them issues is Houston and that's only if they're hot for the entire series which is doubtful because of how fast the warriors are on defense. I don't think SA can survive a shoot out with them and the Cavs are not as good this year

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JJWeatherman

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Well, they're playing the Blazers in the first round, and so I'm going to have to correct you and let you know that they actually won't make it out of that first round.

Pictured below, is myself:

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meteora3255

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@jjweatherman: The Blazers will at least steal one game, the "Lillard and McCollum can't miss and combine for 80 points" type of game. That's all the belief I can give you.