Boldness encouraged, Accuracy & explanations not required
Now that E3 is nearly here and the consoles have been revealed but not completely revealed, it is the perfect time to make predictions. We know just enough to make some fun guesses, but not enough to really completely discount anything.
So look into your crystal balls and let loose your mad theories here Giant Bomb!
Here’s mine
Console Wars
Console Winner - None
The theme of this gen will be fragmentation and contraction. Gaming will ultimately be stronger and healthier once we reach the other side of this gen but getting there will be rough.
Each platform will siphon off segments of the gaming population to the point that none will “win”. Xbox will take the mass market, Sony will take the old time console hardcore, Nintendo will reposition the Wiiu as a kid’s toy and take the kids market enough to save the company, Steam and other PC platforms will take the future as they bridge the gap to TV. The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity in a few years like the N-Gage and the 3D0.
But what is unusual this time is that fewer gamers double dip on multiple consoles, which causes them all to struggle (Save for Steam) like they haven't this past three gens.
Console Survivors - Sony, Steam , Player to be named Later
Microsoft will largely exit the gaming business because they will find the TV entertainment business more lucrative. Nintendo will quit the console business since they realize gimmicks aren’t enough, unlike the wishes of most they will still publish only on their platforms which will handhelds and very underpowered cheap Ouya like min-consoles. They will become the Tiger Electronics of the future, low powered low priced portable gaming machines. Stuff you see in discount bins at 7-11.
Sony will be the last man standing and will try the traditional gaming console one more time with the Playstation 5. They may try to bundle a digital only Playstation 5 inside their TVs
Steam and the other digital PC services will be full competition for Sony as the ease of PC gaming on the TV becomes easier and easier.
Someone else will enter the gaming market, most likely Apple or possibly Google or maybe even Yahoo. And they will be strong enough to make another go in next next gen but they won’t win this round.
Vita crossplay will be a bigger success than anyone could have guessed
After a drastic price cut Sony’s Vita will finally start to catch on with young kids and parents who want to play classic games and don’t have much tv time. The Vita against all odds will battle back to relevance against the 3DS.
Microsoft will halfheartedly position a Windows Phone vs the 3DS and Vita as a portable gaming system
It won't be successful, due to lack of clear consumer rationale. But will find niche oddball use as a Fantasy Sports crossover with the X1
Steam will start acquiring competition and will buy out Desura and GoG.
Desura brand will be retired, but GoG will continue to operate as a separate brand although their policies will start mirror Steam’s.
The Business of Games
Publisher Bankrupticies- Activision, Square Enix
Activision will finally overplay its’ hand on it’s mega hits and will be the big shocker. But once Call of Duty and World of Warcraft finally falter and Kotick retires, the publisher will make a rapid descent into a quick chapter 11 bankruptcy as they will fail to replace their money machines. Activision will survive but will be forced to sell Blizzard to a Chinese company to pay off creditors.
While most would assume EA was the one in dire straits, their willingness to change allows them to survive and thrive.
Square Enix will overplay their hand in desperation to save the money pit that is FF XIV and will be forced to break up the company. The remains of Eidos (Tomb Raider, Sleeping Dogs, Hitman) will be acquired by Ubisoft. Final Fantasy and the Squaresoft brands of old will be acquired by Capcom. Nintendo & Sega will acquire the Enix properties such as Dragon Quest and Star Ocean.
Nintendo & Sega merge-
In a case of the weak combine to become stronger, the once hated rivals merge to become the ultimate gaming force among young children and pre-teens. Nintendega will focus primarily on being wholesome kid friendly , but parent friendly wallet friendly entertainment. They will make handhelds and Ouya priced mini consoles that are closed environment for TV. Most of the Sega corporate culture and personnel will be jettisoned.
Used Games, DRM and their impact- Gamestop and Best Buy go under
The DRM the publishers mandate will be just strict enough that Gamestop will lose it’s primary appeal to consumers faster than anyone realizes, which causes their major profit center to collapse taking them with it. The digital future is much closer than the console makers realize.
Best Buy will be brought to heel by showrooming and severe mismanagement. Best Buy will survive as primarily as an appliance company, but much smaller than they are today. The twin killing of these two gaming retail giants will cause massive disruptions in the hardware supply chain. The Console makers will scramble to find new channels to get their consoles to people as Target and Wal-Mart start to use their new leverage on themto squeeze their margins for better deals.
Sony will make the transition to digital day1 AAA releases faster and better than Microsoft which will help them survive to the next round, although they will have trouble moving hardware until they sign an exclusive distribution deal with Amazon. Betting on the right horse in the e-commerce race Sony will rapidly take market share. Sony will close their remaining Sony Style stores as part of the Amazon deal.
Microsoft having burned bridges in the indie community who are digital heavy will make the transition as well but struggle for titles in the transition period. They will attempt to get their console in unusual brick and mortar retailers such as grocery stores, pharmacies and Home Depot, their Microsoft stores and a web store of their own, but their refusal to bend over to Amazon’s demands will cost them dearly in terms of install base in the long term as gamers move their buying more or less completely online.
New game prices drop to 39.99 midway through-
Once the digital only future arrives early due to retailer bankruptcies, consumers balk at 59.99 for something they can't resell. In desperation to lure them back Sony and Microsoft begin a desperate price war and ultimately do win most back. Developers respond by pushing more and more content to DLC initially and trying to use episodic gaming where creatively possible.
DLC stays around and grows stronger-
After one too many customers gets burned by a Season Pass left unfulfilled, Microsoft steps in and sets hard mandatory content and pricing guidelines for all DLC. Sony as usual of late gets to play the good guy with publishers but still benefits. Consumers win, and overall DLC is a better experience next gen
Gamera will also have the option of buying just the single player or multiplayer component of games once Publishers feel confident piracy is less of a worry than present.
F2P never makes it work on consoles-
The console viewing experience for whatever reason just isn't impulsive enough for the F2P crowd. As a result most of the F2P games never pass quality control for the consoles and the ones that do have very sparsely populated communities which kill them off quickly. They remain primarily on mobile and PC and continue to grow rapidly there
New AA Publishers-
The biggest surprise of next gen is the revival of AA games. As games go more digital their prices become more elastic allowing mid budget games a chance to thrive once more now being sold in the 25-35 dollar range. Most Sports and Puzzle games now fall into this realm.
Indie games will lose a lot of prominence as result but will still exist.
Trends and Gameplay
Gen defining Gameplay Innovation – VR and the return of single player gaming.
No surprise here. The Oculus rift and things like it will change the ways games are played. They are something the consumer instantly gets how it makes their gaming experience different unlike the multimedia functions of X1 or the streaming services like Gaikai of the PS4. . But it’s a very solitary experience and one that de-emphasizes achievements and social networking. VR will be very rough at first but will be really getting going by the end of the gen.
Gaming will return to its’ escapism roots.
New IP will abound-
Partly part on the VR revolution and partly by new AA publishers and new foreign publishers. We will see tons of new titles. Most of the hits of tomorrow will be not be the hits of yesterday.
Mass Enemy Du Jour – Mutants/Chimaeras/Clones
Gone are the day of the Zombie. As gene splicing and cloning tech improves worldwide, the public’s fascination and fear of them will percolate over into entertainment. Zombies and other supernatural threats will fade from popularity to be replaced by Science abominations. The Graveyard will be supplanted by the Mad Corporate Scientist Laboratory.
Gaming Mechanic Du Jour – First Person Parkour and Face Reading
Somebody will figure out how to make movement fun in vr. Mirror’s Edge will be a tantalizingly vision of future Action Adventure games.
As visual tech, mo cap and things like it improve we’ll be asked more and more to “read” NPC faces to guess their characters inner thoughts and feelings as a common basic mechanic. Whether it be for Phoenix Wright crime dramas or Bioware/Quantic Dream like character interaction.
Games and Genres
Most Popular Genre – Survival Horror and Racing, Flight Sim
Survival horror will surprisingly supplant First Person Shooters as the most popular genre. The Oculus Rift and its successors will make Horror games and survival games engrossing and terrifying in a way they’ve never been. VR will be the motion control of its era and will have the most “wow” factor to the average consumer.
Racing will finally get a compelling First Person mode thanks to VR, which leads to a huge proliferation of them.
Rising New Genres- Forsenic mystery, Interactive Drama
The oculus rift and things like will give birth to a whole set of new genres we’ve never seen before and will revive ill thought of and nice genres such as Adventure games
A whole Slew of solve the case CSI like games actually become fun and popular as La Noire like improvements to Ai plus VR make crime franchise port over to games off of Tv.
Heavy rain, Beyond Two souls and the Walking Dead are just the precursor to the further fusing of TV and video games. While VR will recruit many casuals into the hobby, Interactive Drama will be what keeps them there.
Franchises that die/fade- Assassin’s Creed, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Mass Effect, Call of Duty, Metal Gear
Ubisoft will run that puppy into the ground. They already are. Assassin’s Creed will be the biggest missed opportunity of the gen as the mechanics of the gen will suit it well. Next Next gen it will come back.
Square will put all its’ eggs in the FF XIV basket will backfire causing their single player games to be badly underproduced and will crash the company, taking Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest with it. (for awhile)
Without the Doctors’s leadership, Bioware will lose their vision for Mass Effect and the franchise will drift into mediocrity before going dormant. Dragon Age may or may not go along with it
Call of Duty will suffer Madden fatigue, while it won’t go away it will become stale and significantly less popular. Destiny will lay out a new shooter blueprint that makes call of duty seem like old news. Battlefield will handle the change better as EA will change their formula more readily.
Metal Gear’s death will be a slow one. The endless hype train and non-finale games will eventually wear out even the most passionate Kojima fans. But it will be gradual.
Franchises that Revive- Mega Man, Silent Hill, Prince of Persia, Burnout, F-Zero, Sports Games
Capcom, finally exhausting the annual Mega Man machine and out of ideas, turns the franchise over to western hands. Mega Man experiences a Retro Studios Metroid Prime-like reimagining to great critical and financial success.
Capcom promptly kills the good feelings by promptly re-annualizing Mega Man and rereleasing versions of it every 6 months
Silent Hill will become a mega hit due to the Oculus Rift’s impact on horror games, it or something like it will be the Call of Duty of the next gen.
After creatively running out of ideas for Assassin’s Creed, Prince of Persia will find new life yet again as a Mirror’s Edge like clone in VR.
As racing Games become in once again thanks to VR. Pretty much they all attempt to come back to some degree as fighting games did this gen. But Burnout will take the cake as it meshes the thrill of driving with arcade insanity.
Nintendo in their desperation to save the Wii-U and love of gimmicks will embrace the Oculus Rift first and use F-Zero and Wave Race as proof of concepts. The Nintenwheel will be their latest neat peripheral that doesn’t have enough good games..
The integration of X1's fantasy Sports capabilities + the lower pricing of Sports Games will help them achieve Mega popularity once again.
Nascent Franchises that become Mega Hits- Dragon’s Dogma/Deep Down, Dark Souls,As of yet Unknown Chinese titles, Destiny
Dragon’s Dogma II will fuse the best of Monster Hunter, Dark Souls and Skyrim gameplay into a smash hit. Japanese gameplay plus western design aesthetics creates massive worldwide appeal.
Chinese developers will start to eye the west and will start to port their titles over with little success at first but will improve rapidly. They will have an inherent advantage over Western and Japanese developers as they will be given increasingly preferential treatment by the Chinese gov’t allowing them effectively dominate China free of foreign competition giving a base market and cash flow to outspend their competition. The Chinese gov’t will also fund them, in an attempt to help spread China’s cultural influence.
Destiny is made by Bungie, they will do what Bungie does which is make great games. It will be the redefinition of FPSes we’ve been waiting for.
Persona 5 will finally release in 2015
Random Predictions
The Age of Lawsuits and Kinect-
There will be tons of lawsuits mainly involving Kinect. Whether it be Kinect spying too much (recording sensitive conversations between congress people, recording affairs) or not enough (heart sensor noticing heart attacks in users but not calling paramedics), Microsoft will fight an endless legal and PR war over the device.
The Oculus Rift will cause the most Mass Media Hysteria not Kinect
Tieing the Age of Lawsuits, VR will actually kill people or rather there will be many more gaming deaths because some people will become complete shut in their virtual world and forget to eat etc.
VR will be blamed for everything from Diabetes to Divorce on the nightly news. Pundits will decry that the youth of today are anti-social conveniently ignoring the fact that Gen Xers will perhaps like the device the most.
Steam will suffer a major Reputational blow
as their older games stop functioning enmasse with Windows 10 Steam will not compensate users for it. Microsoft deliberately coded Windows that way to punish Steam as competitor. People will lose some faith in some of Steam's promises as a result.
Game for Windows Live will be retired, Microsoft will use the Xbox brand across all their platforms for games.
China will overtake Japan in terms of game design influence worldwide.
Chinese developed games will represent 3 out of the top ten selling games if the gen in the US by the time it’s over.
DOTA 2 will slightly overtake LoL in worldwide popularity and will be shown as a sport on ESPN.
Brazilian developed games will start to trickle into the US as a niche thing at the end of the gen.
Nelly will be the next old rapper to star in his own video game
Food Carts will no longer be a Thing and the word "Xtreme" will come back into fashion
The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity in a few years like the N-Gage and the 3D0.
The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity the minute that it is launched.
Survival horror will surprisingly supplant First Person Shooters as the most popular genre.
I'd find a video of some nutjob laughing but there isn't one that laughs hard enough. Survival horror - actual survival horror, not Dead Space flashing-lights "survival" horror - is difficult to market. It involves creaky and unsettling atmosphere, lack of items you feel you need, and enemies that you're actually afraid of because you're not sure if they are there, and you doubt you can beat them because you haven't been mowing them down for the past few hours.
I think you're joking with a lot of this, but I'm actually not sure about Steam. Some people are already starting to raise a bit of an eyebrow here and there, what with Amazon having better sales, offline mode not always working, Greenlight never bringing good news, and people missing their boxed copies that were actually boxed copies and not a code and a DVD with half the game on it. I still trust Valve, as far as I'd trust any corporation anyway, but I'm slowly starting to realize that they aren't as golden a company as I might have once believed. Still, they won't suffer a massive loss anytime soon, partly because most PC gamers now have a large number of games tied to their Steam accounts. Their service is still stellar as far as I've experienced; as long as it remains that way I don't see this as an issue.
Wouldn't Steam's less-than-optimal compatibility with Win10 just give a strong extra push for Steam-users to switch into Linux? Anyway, my expert predictions*:
US: Xbox One and PS4 both do great with their target audience, meaning Xbone will lead the sales by a good amount. WiiU is left in the dust though Nintendo games occasionally breathe new life into the system.
Europe: Xbone does poorly, EU officially becomes Sony territory with the occasional WiiU.
Japan: Xbone outdoes all expectations and sells over 200 units. PS4 does pretty good. WiiU starts doing a lot better as more games come in.
Other: 3DS stays strong, Vita gets much more attention through PS4's crossplay. WiiU is dubbed GameCube 2. Sony and Microsoft both consider themselves the winners of the generation due to Microsoft's US focus, though Sony leads sales internationally. Instead of a console every X years, Microsoft starts releasing new versions of the Xbox like Apple. At some point both Microsoft and Sony stop caring about exclusives, as the split in regions and target audiences means they're not really competing directly and publishers have a lot more to gain from multi-platform.
The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity in a few years like the N-Gage and the 3D0.
The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity the minute that it is launched.
Survival horror will surprisingly supplant First Person Shooters as the most popular genre.
I'd find a video of some nutjob laughing but there isn't one that laughs hard enough. Survival horror - actual survival horror, not Dead Space flashing-lights "survival" horror - is difficult to market. It involves creaky and unsettling atmosphere, lack of items you feel you need, and enemies that you're actually afraid of because you're not sure if they are there, and you doubt you can beat them because you haven't been mowing them down for the past few hours.
What's the Ouya?
That's fun of bold predictions, anything is possible right now. Maybe not probable but possible sure.
What you described about survival horror is why I could see VR interface (assuming VR becomes popular) changing things for the genre. Survival Horror is the ultimate atmosphere genre for the reason you describe and VR puts you inside the game so to speak. Seems like a perfect match to me.
Will that actually happen, you're probably right it won't. But predicting Shooters will rule in 2020 as they do now isn't very fun or interesting. :)
I think you're joking with a lot of this, but I'm actually not sure about Steam. Some people are already starting to raise a bit of an eyebrow here and there, what with Amazon having better sales, offline mode not always working, Greenlight never bringing good news, and people missing their boxed copies that were actually boxed copies and not a code and a DVD with half the game on it. I still trust Valve, as far as I'd trust any corporation anyway, but I'm slowly starting to realize that they aren't as golden a company as I might have once believed. Still, they won't suffer a massive loss anytime soon, partly because most PC gamers now have a large number of games tied to their Steam accounts. Their service is still stellar as far as I've experienced; as long as it remains that way I don't see this as an issue.
It's kinda inevitable with Steam to get some real mud on their face at some point. As companies become successful they tend to get more insular and arrogant. Then they use their influence to do something their old diehards don't like in their never ending quest to become more profitable. My guess at some point Steam will have something happen where games older than say Windows Vista no longer work and won't respond in a way consumer hope. Something like that. But nothing yet will slow that Steam growth train down much.
I do think Steam will be fine next gen, just maybe not quite as widely well thought of in 2020 (it's long had critics) as opposed to today.
As far as any layman knows, how realistic is it for Steam to incorporate Desura or GoG?
Just because you buy something doesn't mean you have to incorporate their tech. Say Steam actually does at some point want to buy Desura, they may just want their brand, user base and customer data. Let Desura run as is for awhile and migrate their users over to Steam platform to play their already purchased games, something like that.
I think that Oculus Rift, or similar variant, will make some pretty sizeable waves in the way games are designed going forward. I do not think that it will be a short lived fad in the way motion control has been.
I do think digital distribution will be the primary avenue for consumer purchase of games, although I don't think the brick and mortar stores will entirely go away in the near (next fifteen years) future.
The next Zelda Game is just as revolutionary as Ocarina of Time was... but it comes out right before the video game industry crashes and thus becomes a rare collector's item and gains significant popularity on the emulation scene.
Gabe Newell reveals his true form as Chk'Tang: Devourer of worlds. Eats the microsoft home office whole. Continues excellent steam sales.
Resident Evil 7 manages to unite the adventure/horror games of its past and the action games of its present and becomes a relevant franchise again.
Ubisoft rebrands itself as Yubisahft, but is still pronounced as Oobisoft. Might and Magic becomes their most important franchise after the public realizes that Assassin's Creed is played out.
Games Journalism gets rid of the pretense that it's about games and starts being openly about Games Journalism and sexism.
Peter Molyneux reveals that he is a whimsical alien who just wanted to teach us how to love. Also Godus is a failure.
Wouldn't Steam's less-than-optimal compatibility with Win10 just give a strong extra push for Steam-users to switch into Linux? Anyway, my expert predictions*:
US: Xbox One and PS4 both do great with their target audience, meaning Xbone will lead the sales by a good amount. WiiU is left in the dust though Nintendo games occasionally breathe new life into the system.
Europe: Xbone does poorly, EU officially becomes Sony territory with the occasional WiiU.
Japan: Xbone outdoes all expectations and sells over 200 units. PS4 does pretty good. WiiU starts doing a lot better as more games come in.
Other: 3DS stays strong, Vita gets much more attention through PS4's crossplay. WiiU is dubbed GameCube 2. Sony and Microsoft both consider themselves the winners of the generation due to Microsoft's US focus, though Sony leads sales internationally. Instead of a console every X years, Microsoft starts releasing new versions of the Xbox like Apple. At some point both Microsoft and Sony stop caring about exclusives, as the split in regions and target audiences means they're not really competing directly and publishers have a lot more to gain from multi-platform.
*no guarantees
oooooo I like this take.
I should have included regional performance as well, well done sir! Xbone sells over 200 units in Japan is a very bold prediction indeed!
you might be right about Linux. I always forget about that OS.
I think that Oculus Rift, or similar variant, will make some pretty sizeable waves in the way games are designed going forward. I do not think that it will be a short lived fad in the way motion control has been.
I do think digital distribution will be the primary avenue for consumer purchase of games, although I don't think the brick and mortar stores will entirely go away in the near (next fifteen years) future.
I (mostly) agree! VR has a potential real tangible benefit to the gaming experience provided they do it right.
Brick and mortar retail is definitely not going completely away, but I could see game only retailersGamestop going the way of Blockbuster or Circuit City.
A lot like last gen, lots of great single player games and multiplayer becomes less prominent.
I thought last gen was the reverse of this? or am I misreading you?
Seemed like Multiplayer games ruled the charts and that every single player game started to tack pointless multiplayer modes on to counter this? (e.g. GTA, Red Dead, Uncharted2-3, Mass Effect 3, God of War: Ascension, Tomb raider etc)
The next Zelda Game is just as revolutionary as Ocarina of Time was... but it comes out right before the video game industry crashes and thus becomes a rare collector's item and gains significant popularity on the emulation scene.
Gabe Newell reveals his true form as Chk'Tang: Devourer of worlds. Eats the microsoft home office whole. Continues excellent steam sales.
Resident Evil 7 manages to unite the adventure/horror games of its past and the action games of its present and becomes a relevant franchise again.
Ubisoft rebrands itself as Yubisahft, but is still pronounced as Oobisoft. Might and Magic becomes their most important franchise after the public realizes that Assassin's Creed is played out.
Games Journalism gets rid of the pretense that it's about games and starts being openly about Games Journalism and sexism.
Peter Molyneux reveals that he is a whimsical alien who just wanted to teach us how to love. Also Godus is a failure.
Oh yeah that's some good ones!
I always did think Molyneux had some weird ulterior motive. I hope he isn't a secret agent of Chk'Tang.
Will the Zelda game have a Gold Collector's edition?
wow the OP is huge! Here I thought this was going to be a straightforward thread.
"Microsoft will largely exit the gaming business because they will find the TV entertainment business more lucrative." That's what I was going to say when I entered this thread!
"Nintendo will quit the console business since they realize gimmicks aren’t enough, unlike the wishes of most they will still publish only on their platforms which will handhelds and very underpowered cheap Ouya like min-consoles." Very bold prediction but WiiU eerily hints at this in several ways.
"will cost them dearly in terms of install base in the long term as gamers move their buying more or less completely online." - Sorry but I don't see this happening. I have never bought any console or handheld online unless it was secondhand.
"Capcom, finally exhausting the annual Mega Man machine and out of ideas, turns the franchise over to western hands. Mega Man experiences a Retro Studios Metroid Prime-like reimagining to great critical and financial success." Ok first of all. Mega Man isn't an annual franchise. Second. Maverick Hunter was cancelled. xD On second thought, you don't even explain why Mega Man will become so popular, or worthy of being annual. Because it seems pretty random. The MM games of old can be beaten in like an hour, that would never fly today.
"Game for Windows Live will be retired, Microsoft will use the Xbox brand across all their platforms for games." spoiler block not working for this one
1) MS will disappoint by not really showing more games because much of what they will show will not be played on stage and the rest won't show game play... yet again/ I think anyone expecting them to just shows games-game-games will be disappointed when if is only 1/3 is games, 1/3 is explaining what they could have made clear a month ago about hardware, and the rest is pushing Kincect yet again.
2) Sony will have a good show, but they will defer questions about used games to their hardware partners who will merely equivocate with "We considering our options...still." Not talking about what they system will checkup up on, what they system will do with game licences, and issues aroudn used games will just be a downer...because we know retail and publishesr want this and can do it with or without Sony's permission.
3) The big downer of the show will be what I said above. Retail, publishers/developers, and now even Microsoft will be pushing to make sharing a game disc burdensome, difficult, and complicated. Retail and publishers want a things to pick up, but what they plan to do WILL depress that game market.
4) I think gamer will just feel deflated by this years e3, and that will translate into poor launches for what should be great systems. They don't realize it, but old retail and publishers are going to strangle their golden goose. Gamers will stick with PS3 and Xb360 because those games they CAN play, CAN share, and CAN trade-in. That's the flaw...until old hardware gets nailed down with NEW draconian rules via firmware patches that will be hold-ass gamers will stay w/ PS3/360 enjoying the old system.
5) This year some booing will be so loud and so disruptive someone will get escorted out of a MS, EA, Activision, Ubisoft or Sony conference. All the other games media will say it was rude or wrong, but the gamers won't care. That "person" or "people" will be a celebrities and their media sites, zines or web shows will increase in viewership. In other words there will be a HUGE windfall gain for those people, sites, or zines. If 'ringers' can fake clap for their company, than real media can boo and heckle.
6) There will be yet another instance of stupid & pointless sexism that occurs. Some tone deaf company will do something rude because they can't help themselves. Strippers will be hired, or booty short models will cavort, so that what could have been a fun night with drinks, music and finger food will be wrecked by some idiots.
I hate to sound pessimistic, but I think the great thing that will be shown will be buried under that really crappy realizations that lawyers have taken over and they are preaching fear and hate to retail and publishers. Fear the gamer, fear anything that looks like a single dollar might be lost is what all the lawyers are whispering.
wow the OP is huge! Here I thought this was going to be a straightforward thread.
....
"will cost them dearly in terms of install base in the long term as gamers move their buying more or less completely online." - Sorry but I don't see this happening. I have never bought any console or handheld online unless it was secondhand.
"Capcom, finally exhausting the annual Mega Man machine and out of ideas, turns the franchise over to western hands. Mega Man experiences a Retro Studios Metroid Prime-like reimagining to great critical and financial success." Ok first of all. Mega Man isn't an annual franchise. Second. Maverick Hunter was cancelled. xD On second thought, you don't even explain why Mega Man will become so popular, or worthy of being annual. Because it seems pretty random. The MM games of old can be beaten in like an hour, that would never fly today.
"Game for Windows Live will be retired, Microsoft will use the Xbox brand across all their platforms for games." spoiler block not working for this one
yeah I went a little overboard. But it was kind of hard to make some predictions I made without making others that helped explain the background of why that prediction might make sense.
re: console buying online- I don't either today, but people do buy TVs and Computers and far more expensive electronics all the time online now and in rapidly increasing numbers. Doesn't seem like a stretch to see it happen for consoles too. Just ask Best Buy, they are getting showroomed to death.
re: Mega Man - If I didn't take some off the wall low probability longshots it wouldn't be fun. Fwiw you are almost certainly right. For awhile Mega Man and Mega Man X practically felt like annual franchises even if they weren't purely that, that was a long time ago though. I know Maverick Hunter was cancelled, doesn't mean it can't be uncancelled. :)
GFWL didn't have Spoiler block because it was only one sentence long. It was in a series of random one off predictions.
This upcoming generation will be the most dismal in term of sales and innovation we've seen since Atari was King.
Playstation will "win" the generation.
Nintendo will have a new console within 3 years and it will be a gamer's machine, no bullshit, exactly what players always wanted, it will be more powerful than PS4 and XB1 and be successful but too late to catch up to either.
XB1 will be the last Microsoft game focused console, they will put out another console but it will be more like a cross between an Apple tv and an Ouya, it will play games very well, as good as the XB1, but it won't compare to the PS5 and Microsoft won't care because it will be cheap and wildly successful in comparison.
EA will sell off everything but it's sports division, this makes everyone involved happy.
Capcom and Konami amalgamate, it accomplishes nothing.
Blizzard will put out Warcraft 4, it will be great and the last game directly tied to the Blizzard founders who will all retire following it's release, this will be the beginning of the end for Blizzard/Activision as a major publisher.
Ubisoft will become bigger than EA & Activision were combined, they will start their own sports division which will become the main competitor of EA Sports.
1) MS will disappoint by not really showing more games because much of what they will show will not be played on stage and the rest won't show game play... yet again/ I think anyone expecting them to just shows games-game-games will be disappointed when if is only 1/3 is games, 1/3 is explaining what they could have made clear a month ago about hardware, and the rest is pushing Kincect yet again.
2) Sony will have a good show, but they will defer questions about used games to their hardware partners who will merely equivocate with "We considering our options...still." Not talking about what they system will checkup up on, what they system will do with game licences, and issues around used games will just be a downer...because we know retail and publishers want this and can do it with or without Sony's permission.
3) The big downer of the show will be what I said above. Retail, publishers/developers, and now even Microsoft will be pushing to make sharing a game disc burdensome, difficult, and complicated. Retail and publishers want a things to pick up, but what they plan to do WILL depress that game market.
4) I think gamer will just feel deflated by this years e3, and that will translate into poor launches for what should be great systems. They don't realize it, but old retail and publishers are going to strangle their golden goose. Gamers will stick with PS3 and Xb360 because those games they CAN play, CAN share, and CAN trade-in. That's the flaw...until old hardware gets nailed down with NEW draconian rules via firmware patches that will be hold-ass gamers will stay w/ PS3/360 enjoying the old system.
5) This year some booing will be so loud and so disruptive someone will get escorted out of a MS, EA, Activision, Ubisoft or Sony conference. All the other games media will say it was rude or wrong, but the gamers won't care. That "person" or "people" will be a celebrities and their media sites, zines or web shows will increase in viewership. In other words there will be a HUGE windfall gain for those people, sites, or zines. If 'ringers' can fake clap for their company, than real media can boo and heckle.
6) There will be yet another instance of stupid & pointless sexism that occurs. Some tone deaf company will do something rude because they can't help themselves. Strippers will be hired, or booty short models will cavort, so that what could have been a fun night with drinks, music and finger food will be wrecked by some idiots.
I hate to sound pessimistic, but I think the great thing that will be shown will be buried under that really crappy realizations that lawyers have taken over and they are preaching fear and hate to retail and publishers. Fear the gamer, fear anything that looks like a single dollar might be lost is what all the lawyers are whispering.
I think you pretty much got it nailed.
I agree with you on #3, this DRM if it isn't coupled with lower costs of New Titles is a recipe for disaster.
I don't see #5 happening, but maybe I'm giving the media too much credit. Pretty devious idea though.
#6 is pratically guaranteed I think. My guess would be Tecmo if they show up.
I didn't think about retroactive anti-used game firmware updates for 360 and PS3. That makes a lot of unfortunate sense. :(
Eh Low expectations are easier to beat right? I'd rather be disappointed now and be pleasantly surprised later than be hyped now and disappointed later.
@slag: I would've also included stuff about Russia/China/India or something but I have no idea what that stuff would be especially for India, even for a crazy prediction. Maybe they'll all buy cheap WiiUs (China has them banned though I think) and break Wii sales records. But I like your China prediction. What if we got a Chinese console?
@slag: I would've also included stuff about Russia/China/India or something but I have no idea what that stuff would be especially for India, even for a crazy prediction. Maybe they'll all buy cheap WiiUs (China has them banned though I think) and break Wii sales records. But I like your China prediction. What if we got a Chinese console?
That's a good observation, I wonder what India does play. I always kind of assumed India and China were PC heavy markets and played lots of pirated games, but I could be wrong. The only mainstream Chinese console developed game I ever remember coming over here was a Splinter Cell game that had a bunch of the coding work done over there.
That would be totally nuts if we got a Chinese console!
Maybe not Next Gen but Next Next Gen ,I think that's a definite possibility. China is catching up to us economically and technologically very quickly.
5) This year some booing will be so loud and so disruptive someone will get escorted out of a MS, EA, Activision, Ubisoft or Sony conference. All the other games media will say it was rude or wrong, but the gamers won't care. That "person" or "people" will be a celebrities and their media sites, zines or web shows will increase in viewership. In other words there will be a HUGE windfall gain for those people, sites, or zines. If 'ringers' can fake clap for their company, than real media can boo and heckle.
I don't see #5 happening, but maybe I'm giving the media too much credit. Pretty devious idea though.
I could be wrong, but was there not a 'booing' incident in the last three or four years? I remember someone at 1UP being very perturbed at the lack of decorum at one conference or another. But, I do agree it does not seem probable and it probably would not be seen by people viewing at home. It would only be talked about by those near the disturbance.
5) This year some booing will be so loud and so disruptive someone will get escorted out of a MS, EA, Activision, Ubisoft or Sony conference. All the other games media will say it was rude or wrong, but the gamers won't care. That "person" or "people" will be a celebrities and their media sites, zines or web shows will increase in viewership. In other words there will be a HUGE windfall gain for those people, sites, or zines. If 'ringers' can fake clap for their company, than real media can boo and heckle.
I don't see #5 happening, but maybe I'm giving the media too much credit. Pretty devious idea though.
I could be wrong, but was there not a 'booing' incident in the last three or four years? I remember someone at 1UP being very perturbed at the lack of decorum at one conference or another. But, I do agree it does not seem probable and it probably would not be seen by people viewing at home. It would only be talked about by those near the disturbance.
Hunh, I really don't know . Sounds like a good question to email the bombcast. Would be fun to hear the guys talk about it.
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