I started playing Hearthstone a few weeks before Blizzard moved it into the open beta, making it early December. Now it is the end of June, so that makes it about 6 and a half months playing this game. Now, I am no amazing player and I don't put it the countless hours a day into this game like other people tend to. But I also think I am not horrible and maybe can reach the oh-so-sweet legendary status. As of this writing, I am rank 3 with only two decks that have a chance of carrying me to the top. Also, they will reset the ladder in five days, two of which I am busy, so I have to hope for some good matchups.

The deck that I am using is a mage deck taken from a player by the name DuckwingFACE and it is almost the exact copy. I had to substitute Bloodmage Thalnos for Loot Hoarder, because I don't have Thalnos in my collection. This deck has served me well so far, getting me from rank 15 or 14 to my current rank 3, and I hope it will get me to legendary. The other deck that I have and could achieve this task is warlock-zoo, but I am not a big fan of playing it. I will give you some statistics and observations I have made playing this deck and also just general thoughts on the game itself (if you are not interested into matchup analysis, then I advise to skip to the last part.).

On the scale of aggro decks (the ones that try to win the game quickly) to control decks (tries to keep the board relatively safe for the first half of the game and then pops a couple of big threats that could end the game in one or two turns), this mage deck leans to the aggressive side, while having some late-game potential. The goal with it is to establish a good board presence early on, so that, coming into mid-game, you are hard to stop. It is advised to hold on to some of your cheap spells for Archmage Antonidas, the Fireball generating machine.

Warrior (6:6, 50%)

In the current meta the most used warrior deck is the control warrior, but overall it is not a popular deck right now. That is a good thing, since my mage deck has a hard time dealing against it. This deck can stop me from establishing the board and generate enough armor for my Archmage and Fireballs not to matter. The 50% win ratio is just me being lucky, having won those 6 games because of good draws or horrible play by my opponent.

Shaman (8:7, 53.33%)

I think shamans have a slightly better chance of winning this matchup (though my stats would suggest otherwise). Lightning Storm and Feral Spirit are cards that can easily stop this mage deck from winning, with Fire Elementals and Doom Hammers coming in as close seconds.

Rogue (11:16, 40.74 %)

In today's meta, if you are playing against a rogue, then it is a miracle rogue. This matchup lives and dies by the speed of the rogue playing Gadgetzan Auctioneer, after which you might have a turn or two before the inflicted pain of Leeroy Jenkins, Shadowstep, Cold Blood and Edwin Vancleef.

Paladin (10:5, 66.67%)

For the past week or so I have noticed a rise in aggroish paladin decks, which is different from seeing the more standard, control type paladins. These more aggressive paladin decks have a slightly better time against this mage deck, than the more typical paladin deck, but they don't make this class a counter. Consecration and Truesilver Champion are still the cards to watch out for, but beyond that paladin has no really good tools to deal with this deck.

Hunter (7:2, 77.78%)

The recent increase in mana cost for the Unleash the Hounds helps this matchup quite a lot, giving you one more turn to deal some damage. As long as your Violet Teachers does not flood the board with 1/1 tokens, you should be fine. Also, since hunters have very little protection against spells, Fireballs to the face are extra great here.

Druid (30:11, 73.17%)

Because zoo and miracle rogue are popular decks right now, the more classic ramp druid decks have fallen out of favor,since they are too slow. This gave rise to the Force of Nature + Savage Roar combo that can deal 14 damage on it's own. But I find that still a bit too slow against this mage deck, because the druid still needs to use the early-game to gear up for the later stages of the match. At that point I can already have a couple of minions dealing damage to the enemy player.

Warlock (18:23, 43.9%)

When playing against warlock there are only two options:

1) Your opponent is a hand-lock. This means he is too slow for you and you are most likely to win. Just don't burst him down too quickly and give him free Molten Giants that can be taunted.

2) You opponent is a zoo warlock. If that is the case, you are close to boned and have to hope for some great top-decking. If you cannot deal with first few turns of your opponent playing monsters, you have lost.

Mage (9:3, 75%)

In a case of a mirror match, the best case scenario for the opponent is to have the same deck as you do. If they don't, then you should be OK. The now popular freeze-mage does not do so well against this deck, since you should be able to burst them down fast enough for it's late game tricks not matter.

Priest (7:6, 53.85%)

It is all very simple against a priest, really. If it goes into late-game, you are probably gonna lose, because priests can be very good at playing the mid-range role and keeping a check on you.

At this point I don't think these stats are going to change, unless a new, before unseen type of deck becomes popular in the meta. As it is right now, the popular decks now have been around for quite some time, shuffling around as one becomes more popular than the other. This is why everyone is waiting for new cards to mix things up in this somewhat stale meta.

Looking at all these statistics made me realize one thing: at some point every match becomes a numbers game of how much are you likely to win. Hearthstone is a game where the lows are not that low, but in return the highs are not that high. Sure, there is a place for comebacks and upsets, but in a lot of cases the outcome can be predicted in 6 or 7 turns. Sometimes even faster.

To the games credit, a typical match is not that long and it lends itself to short bursts of play extremely well. So even knowing, that you are playing a lost match is not that bad, since you are gonna be playing a new one in couple of minutes. But, as I said, I have only two decks right now, that could take me to legendary. If the meta shifts and my mage deck will no longer be viable, then I will be forced to grind for new cards until I can make a deck that can compete. Unless I devote myself to zoo, which I don't really want to do.

Good read. This season I've been playing Warlock a ton and am currently at rank 4, but also don't have the time needed to make the final push to legendary. Maybe next season. I've stopped seeing a lot of aggro decks consistently since around rank 7, though still get the occasional zoolock. Lots of control warrior which is surprising given the amount of miracle rogue I run into. It's a hard counter to handlock, but don't run into a ton of it. Maybe next season I'll track my match-ups too, because numbers are awesome. Question for you though. What kind of Hunter are you seeing? Since about rank 6, I'm seeing a ton of aggro hunter which was unexpected. I guess given the nerf to UTH, maybe it's the only build of the deck that's viable. It seems to me that it's too slow to race miracle and doesn't matchup favorably against control warrior.

@c0v3rt: The typical UTH hunter with Starving Buzzards, Timber Wolfs, lots of traps etc. I don't see hunters a lot, but when I do, that is the deck that is played. I do wonder why you see so much control warrior. I assume you are playing on the NA servers, while I am European myself and have not seen such big warrior popularity in it. Without any real data it is hard to come up with a reason, so I would suggest to keep a track on the games you play and just make a little table of numbers like I did. For example, I have not noticed before such huge popularity in druid decks before I started counting my wins and loses.

Glad I'm not in the high top-5 ranks (usually get to around Rank 9/8 and stop). Those top tier decks are so repetative. I'm glad I can get to where I am without having to resort to these specific decks. It's also fun because when I do play against one of them, they rarely expect me to be playing a "normal" non-specific deck.

Also, Roasting a guy with King Krush is always fun.

I'm actually surprised how few Hunter decks I see that aim for the late game. I can chip them away for a while and just wait it out. Then BAM! Just got Tundra-Highmaned

@dantey: Yeah, I'm on NA. So you're seeing aggro hunter too. Not surprising given the UTH nerf. Midrange doesn't seem terribly viable anymore.

@dixavd To each their own. I don't think they're repetitive and have fun playing them, but to each their own. Deck building and playing the game well don't necessarily go hand in hand. Given the limited card pool, if you want to be competitive on ladder, there are only a handful of decks are viable. Play whatever is fun for you, your time is your most valuable commodity. I love King Krush, I play him in a hunter deck I screw around with on casual when I need to grind out a daily Hunter quest. I just wish he cost 8 instead of 9.

Really good read. I'm still fairly new to the game so I'm not anywhere near where you are, but it's always cool to read stuff like this.

@amyggen: Thanks, duder. Just play arena as much as you can and, if you are good at it, you can get a lot of cards that way.