I think being Volgin’s lover doesn’t negate the possibility of him being EVA - if anything, it helps support it. Wanting an agent in Volgin’s bed seems pretty logical to me. In fact, that’s entirely the same story/method Tatyana had when she was pretending to be 'EVA'. What a coincidence.
Personally, I think this is a possible theory. I don't see anything to contractice it, but there are hints to support it. In fact it was my first thought when they said at the end of MGS 3 that both agents were men; I immediately thought of Ivan because of the name play. And what better man to give the effeminate title 'Eva' than prettyboy Ivan? I know the OP and I aren't the only ones to see the connection, certainly anyone who has read 'The Vicious Pet' knows it's an old theory with quite a following. But I would only consider it a theory, there’s indications, but definitely not proof.
I write stories, and when I write one that I intend to expand upon later, I often leave potential seeds. Little things that could lead to nothing, but should I chose to develop them, they’re in place. This looks like a seed to me. We know from interviews that Raiden is Kojima’s favorite character, we know Raikov/Ivan was based off Raiden as a joke, and we know that Raikov/Ivan gets a number of cameos in future games despite being only a small joke character. If he was /just/ a joke with no plans at all for him, he probably wouldn’t be in those games. The joke had been made already, there’s no need to continue his presence. So yeah, I think it’s a story seed that Kojima might have been considering developing at one point, but then decided against. It's also possible that it's not a seed for future plots, so much as a tease for people who like to theorize about stuff like this. There’s a lotta love for theorizing in fanbases.
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