What? The Last of Us 2 isn't even out yet. Death Stranding isn't even out yet.

I doubt we are going to see a PS5 before both those games are out. There is still plenty of momentum left this gen. I absolutely think both those games will be fine on current PS4 hardware.

I feel like this gen just got started.

PS4 continues to sell like hotcakes, might break 100 million lifetime.

I think 2021, or maybe 2020 realistic launch years. That would give the Pro a four or five active life span, not bad.

@justin258: Ditto. They had the PS3 out for a decade, right? I wouldn't expect a PS5 for a loong time.

The PS4 Pro isn't a year old yet. It is way too soon to release something now. Somebody in a lab is probably working on a "PS5" or their version of Scorpio (there are talks out there about how people were working on a PS4 only like a year or two after the PS3 launched), but there's no way that will come out next year.

At the earliest, 2019. At the latest, never.

Most probably? Around the 2020-2022 range.

The PS4 Pro extended the life-span of the PS4. I don't know about what the attachment rate is exactly, but Sony invested in an upgraded console. I don't think they'll abandon that and go for a new generation only 2 years afterwards.

Plus, to release a next generation console better than the current ones I'd expect some affordable 1080ti levels of tech. At the very least it'd have to outperform the XBone X by a large amount.

Dan Tack, the founder of GI and Dan's old roommate, said that Bloodborne 2 will come out on PS6 next year

Man, 2020 sounds more like a sci-fi movie than a year.

Zero chance. They just released ps4 pro.

I'd say pretty low. Unless the Xbox One X just kills it and starts cutting into their sales significantly, I think Sony will be perfectly happy continuing to put PS4s on the shelves. I just don't get the sense they're remotely interested in a proactive move right now, largely because they don't have to be.

I can see 2019. There is definitely a shift in console cycles with the last gen lasting so long and this gen having console refreshes but I just can't see any circumstances where it'd make sense to roll out a new console next year. I'm wondering what you mean by "they have nothing new to bring with the current PS4 hardware" tho. Are you suggesting they should just pack it up 'cause they had such a fantastic year that it'd be very hard to top it?

There's a better chance of a Dreamcast 2 coming out next year than a PS5. The PS4 is in its prime right now, and probably will be for a good while.

I could *almost* see a new Xbox if the X weren't coming out.

Low bordering impossible, like you said they just released the psPro jumping to next gen already would just be crazy IMO. I say were are atleast 3-5 years out from the next gen, and even then we may only get another upgrade to the same systems following the phone business model.

I think there's a bigger chance for the announcement of a "PS4 Pro 2" in the next two years.

Both Sony and Microsoft are probably going to follow the smartphone business model for a while before releasing an actual "new gen".

Unlike most people apparently, I am quite confident they will release a proper PS5 eventually, but it won't be announced next year. There's just not enough incentive to do so right now.

Another hardware iteration, sure, but no video game console will ever have a number at the end of its name again

That would be stupid. Even the iPhone gets progressive numbers. Even if they did end up following the smartphone business model of iterative updates they will still try to create the illusion of big updates. They can't just sell PlayStation "4's" forever.

@zeik: I think he's suggesting they'd drop numbers all together. I'd bet the next PS being called PS5, whether that's a refresh or a not 'cause people would buy that. At this point, they're at least going up to 10 so that shit could finally be called PSX.

This wouldn't be too wild of a change though. In recent decades, isn't it only Sony who has sequentially numbered their console releases? And even then not even their portables.

@paulmako: shhhh, don't bring up the Vita. They're also the only one consistently doing it though.

@paulmako: But it's still part of the system's legacy at this point, and Apple has already proven that you can use that model for iterative releases, so why would they change now? Especially when a fully iterative release schedule would be a massive change that would certainly get some backlash. Leaving the numbers to make the change seem less jarring would be by far the smarter business move.

If the Xbox One X somehow is incredibly successful, I guess I wouldn't entirely rule it out. At most I'd still give it a low probability though. It'll probably be 2-3 years before they start talking openly about a PS5.

The only way I see it happening is if it is an early announcement of a late-2019 release (which doesn't make a whole lot of sense). Anything else feels like it would potentially sour the opinion of Pro owners (it'd have a sub three-year lifecycle).

I'm also not really seeing the hardware that would make up a PS5 yet - to make it a meaningful generation bump, you'd basically need to do 4K that is noticeably better than the 4K output of the Pro. I doubt we're there yet at a console price/form-factor until AMD/Nvidia announce details of their next architecture (Navi/Volta). A mock-up PS5 (or at least specs.) are probably in one of Sony's hardware labs, but I suspect we're a long way off it being a finishing consumer product.

I'm not going to say there's a 0% chance of an announcement. But it is highly unlikely. I'd say wait 2-3 more years. That feels right for a PS5 announcement.

I think the most we'll see is a 2019 announcement for a 2020 release. Nothing sooner than that, and even that might be too soon.

That's thirty to forty years from now. I kind of doubt consoles as we know them will be around for that long. They'll probably be replaced by online services.

I hope not. I got my PS4 just 8 months ago. I rather they focus on making games than new consoles.

Earliest I could see a successor would be 2019, and even then I doubt they would announce it until early that year.

@ezekiel: you're missing the point

Next year? Low. I expect some early rumblings in 2019 though and then official stuff starting around 2020.

Whether it's a fresh start or another beefed-up PS4 they'll call the PS5 and also throw in PS4 backwards compatibility, who can say.

You're insane for even asking that. It's only been out for 4 years.

No, I'm ignoring the point and replying to a particular part of your post.

Voted impossible. I predict PS5 will be announced in Q1 2019 and released Q3/Q4 2019 at the earliest, more likely is a 2019 announcement and 2020 release. It's selling too well and the updated consoles (X1X and Pro) did not came out long ago, there's still a ton of games coming out and being made and it'll be a while before we see next consoles. Obviously it's probably in early stages of design and we might start seeing rumours in 2018 but there's no way they'll announce it that year.

3 more years at least.

With each console getting a version 1.5 or w/e you wont even see fucking vaporware until at least 2020. I dont know what crack your smoking.

I voted "low" because with the current pipeline of games it seems highly unlikely. These days it also seems like there is a telltale drip of leaks and rumours for long enough that we're not totally caught by surprise.

John Carmack once talked in an interview about how earlier consoles could really change games visually and game-play wise with moderate multiples of computing power, whereas with the visual complexity of games these days the multiples of power required to make any sort of an impact is approaching a huge number. A console with "6x the computing power of the Xbox 1X or PS4 Pro" in front of your eyes would probably look...a little sharper, with a bit denser textures? At this point if what Sony and Microsoft want is a splash with an appreciably larger amount of visual power as opposed to what they have now it definitely wouldn't make sense to come out with a new console before 2022. If they're holding onto the continual half-step back and forth then I still wouldn't see anything before 2019 at the earliest.

Eh. Go for it Sony. I'm not in the console market so whatever happens doesn't matter to me.

Medium. I could see something being announced. Whether that is a PS4 Pro Pro or PS5, the name doesn't entirely matter.

The PS4 Pro just has some extra bells and whistles (and I love mine.) And while I'm not particularly enthused, the Xbox One X does seem like it has the potential to be decent bump in performance.

The actual PS4 came out almost 4 years ago, and I'd say the X360 and PS3 generation length was not normal.

I could see Sony wanting to release something to compete with the Xbox One X pretty quickly.

Zero.

@liquiddragon said:

Yeah the next one will just be called the "Playstation Edge" or "Playstation Core" or some other buzz word. Even the PS4 Pro is turning into the "Playstation Pro" or "PS Pro", I don't think it's unreasonable to think that they'll either phase out the numbering system or severely minimize its importance. Apple's the only company that can still get away with that, and that's just because for whatever reason they still get press coverage as if it was 2008 and they're still doing something unique. Nobody knows what the model number of their Samsung phone is, it's always just "the new galaxy" or "the new android".

I doubt see a PS5 happening next. I see a PS4 PRO, PRO-PRO-PRO PRO PRO PRO, happening. $500 with 4K blu ray drive. January is probably gonna be the release date. You gotta #make-believe. #GreatnessAwaits.

It's coming out way before Final Fantasy VII Remake Part 1, you know that right?

"Playstation Origins" followed a few years later by the "Playstation Zero" upgraded model.

@dukeofthebump: I just don't see why they would. Numbering has serve them well. The reason the Vita was not PSP2 is because they weren't as happy with its performance outside of Japan and perhaps not wanted to remind people of it. I think people might call the PS4 Pro a PS Pro to distinguish it from the standard and it's not like there is another PS with a Pro in the name. I can maybe see them just calling it PlayStation with "The New" on the box but attaching Edge or Core confuses the whole thing, especially Core 'cause wait what? I don't just want the core version...

Why? XB1 sales have been anemic since the turn of the year, and the PS4 just had its best June ever in the US. Sony are forecasting 18 million units which is looking like a conservative estimate given how strong the end of the year is software wise, Sony are in no rush to start a new gen the PS4 can easily hit 100 million their gonna milk it dry.

Knowing my luck they'll announce it the day after I buy a PS4

I can only see it happening if the PS5 is a PS4 Pro Pro and even then that seems a year early.

As much as I would personally like Sony to at least announce PS5 next year I doubt we'll hear anything next year. Pro is still too new and they would risk angering PS4 Pro owners. But hey, I already feel like Sony pulled one over on me when they released the Pro, so for me they might as well go all the way and annouce the next generation. I can't justify "upgrading" to a Pro. But I would probably start saving up for the next generation.

I wouldn't expect to hear anything about a PS5 from Sony for a good two years. Where is the market going to be for the next gen?

- Do they continue this Tick/Tock product upgrade like phones? and we see a PS4 Ultra to compete with the Xb1x?
- Do they fully embrace a new system and call it PS5? Does your PS4 library carry over? If so why not just make a PS4 Ultra?
- Is VR still a thing? Does that require new hardware?
- Will their bet on streaming games make a solid breakthrough? Can a PS5 title be stream-able?
- IMO the bigger question is: Do they go after the Switch?