Endurnace Run Episode Length Trends
By SketchyBrown 21 Comments
INTRODUCTION
As my blog here at GB is so meager, I decided to publish a forum post in which I have invested considerable effort over time here. To the best of my ability, the post and this blog should just be nearly identical in content. However, while including nearly all that is in the original post, I may add some analysis of the data to give the numbers some more meaning other than "oooo pretty red line rises over time".SUMMARY
The red line represents the "predicated length" of an episode for a given episode number. This is done by averaging out the other episode lengths. This trend line (the red line) clearly shows an increase in episode length with each episode... so, AWESOME !
Great work Vinny and Jeff! Keep on kicking ass, taking names, and pumping out awesome P4 Endurance Run awesomeness!
PLOT
ANALYSIS
Bullet points always make things easier to communicate:- HOOOYEAH! RED LINE IS RISING! EPISODES (overall) ARE GETTING LONGER!
- Observe the significant dip in episode length from 4/20 until 5/4. This is most likely related to the Behind the scences: Episode 50 landmark which gave many GB staff members a sour taste in their mouths with respect to "finishing" the endurance run. One can imagine them all feeling a bit crazy for having gone as far as they had; not to mention being extremely overwhelmed thinking of how much more there was to come.
- From 5/26 - 6/8 a large gap is present in the plot. this is due to the GB staff's trip to E3 2009. (They took a week off to better cover E3)
- As time has gone on with this Endurance Run it is clearly evident that the episoges are growing longer with each passing adeventure into crazy-Japan-TV-shadow monster land. I propose three possible reasons for this:
- The staff wants to get the ER over with as soon as possible. The best way to do that, without ending it outright, is to record as much as possible at once.
- The staff are genuinely intro the game - growing to love the gameplay, the interesting, relatable characters - not to mention the over-the-top set-pieces.
- The staff are just giving the fans what they want. Super long episodes of P4 every day : D
- ??? Ideas and theories are welcome ???
TRENDLINE & ALGEBRAIC ANALYSIS
As a rough way to estime any (future, past or present) episode of the Endurance run, I have used Excel's simple Linear Regression algorithm to find a linear fit to the ER data. More info on the mathematics behind the procedure.The trendline's equation (for a plot of Episode Length vs Episode Number - NOT Episode Length vs Air Date.... such a plot would be of limited usefullness because a simple algebraic regression can't account for the sporadic gaps (weekends, E3, etc).
Episode Length ≈ 0.2369*(Episode Number) + 22.09
EX:
A dialog between persons A and B in search of an approximation for an episode's length in minutes:A :How long, to the best of your knowledge, will Episode 150 be?
B: WELL! Thank's the SketchyBrown 's work in Excel, I can only guess with a relatively high margin of error. I'll give it a shot anyway!
given:
then:
L = 0.2369*150 + 22.09 = 35.535 + 22.09
= 57.625 (minutes)
A: Aaah! Alright! So, around episode 150, we can except the episode to be around 58 minutes long! Thanks, A!
REVISION HISTORY
-EDIT - Episode 127
Nitpicky typos fixed, plot extenended through mgssnake's data, connecting lines added, trendline updated... not much of note. OH WAIT. This has been turned into a blog! Turned basic forum post into semi-elaborate blog post. G-D I love Giant Bomb! (and all your community members!)
-EDIT - Episode 116
Trust me I won't keep updating this so often... but I had an idea and I think it makes the plot more useful. Now the Episode lengths are plotted against their Air Date. Updated trendline equation.
-EDIT - Episode 115
Added new data points, learned how to delete old images from my profile, and updated the trendline's equaton.
-EDIT - Episode 111
I decided to spruce up the plot and make the data more easily discernable given the small image size allowed on the boards... so here you go! I think it looks a lot better. I will probably update this post once each weekend or so.
DISCLAMER - This is not some pathetic attempt at getting a higher post count, it is merely a way to "bookmark" my graph and analysis for future updates and efficient record keeping.
SPECIAL THANKS - A special thanks goes out to mgssnake for creating the list of episode lengths from which most of these data are derived. Also, it should go without saying, but to Vinny, Jeff, Drew and the rest of the GB staff which make this website, and its awesome features, possible and accessible. Oh, and ATLUS. Can't forget them!
PS - View the original thread by msgsnake here