I think the best answer is Warhammer 2. Troy may be polished, but it's not the simplest TW in my opinion. I found the multiple resources to be novel (and really improved trade/diplomacy) but actually overcomplicated the game when you had a larger empire, because you had to keep up with which cities produced which specific resources and it became a bit of a mess. I also just didn't have as much fun with Troy as I've had with other TW games, for whatever reason (and this seems to be a common opinion).
Warhammer 2 is the best blend Creative Assembly has made of complicated and fun. Yes, some factions have complicated mechanics, but overall the grand campaign management is much simpler than in other games. At every settlement there is only one money building, one population growth building, etc. that you can build. This is why WH2 is a much more streamlined experience than Rome 2, which went the complete opposite direction where there were multiple types of each building you could build in a settlement and it was too confusing to really care about it. Basically it's very easy in WH2 to build an "optimal" city, whereas in other games it's more difficult to know what to build where.
So again I think Warhammer 2 is the best modern TW game they've made and is the best jumping-in point for a new player (there's a reason it has sold so many copies). I say modern TW game because you could go back and play Medieval 2 or Rome 1/Remastered (both fantastic games), but they use a completely different settlement/army management system that was revamped from Rome 2 onwards. So I think it would be tough to go learn all of the systems from an older title only to start one of the newer games and be completely confused.
I think the last thing that should be considered is what setting you find interesting. Total War games are similar to Assassin's Creed games in a way, that being your interest in a time period will add a lot to your enjoyment of a title. If you have no interest in Roman history, it'll be a lot harder to enjoy Rome 2 than if you loved the time period. I think Warhammer 2 kind of transcended this, because I had no interest in Warhammer Fantasy prior to playing (and now I'm quite a big fan).
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