I know many of you have joined Twitter to stay up-to-date with gaming news, so I thought I'd post this list of the top gaming trends over the 2009 holiday season.
Aggregame published their 2009 Holiday gaming trends for 2009 last week and here's what everyone on Twitter was chatting about. Looks like Nintendo had an awesome season w/ a 900% increase in social buzz. PS3 saw a 26% increase, and the 360 only a 13% increase...
http://blog.aggregame.com/2009/12/top-console-video-game-sales-christmas.html
The report is based on volume of tweets on Twitter before and after Christmas, but it still serves as a pretty accurate metric for potential sales performance for each. However, this kind of data is available in real-time, whereas we have to wait weeks or even months for formal sales data from NPD and others.
1) Nintendo Wii - 180,498 tweets
2) Playstation 3 - 76,544 tweets
3) CoD:MW2 - 54,520 tweets
4) Xbox 360 - 42,277 tweets
5) DJ Hero - 19,408 tweets
6) WoW - 18,430 tweets
7) Wii Fit - 16,997 tweets
8) Uncharted 2 - 15,684 tweets
9) L4D2 - 12,477 tweets
10) Sims 3 - 11,871 tweets
I was also surprised to see the various games in that report that did well, and did not do so well.
What do you guys and girls think of it?
Top 2009 Gaming Trends Published
While I always find numbers interesting, these are no were near as reliable as NPD numbers. There is a bias in audience here. Not everyone has a Twitter account, and even fewer feel the need to post on Twitter how they feel about their video game-related holiday gifts.
That being said, I think it can reflect massive trends, but not smaller ones. We all know by now that the Wii's sales killed it from Thanksgiving on, and that Modern Warfare 2 was ridiculously huge, but I don't think one can extrapolate most individual game sales from something as this.
Wait, why are they basing sales figures on tweets? Why not ask retailers or the manufacturers or the publishers? You know, people who might have some sort of clue as to what sold how much.
" @DanielJW said:I did Big Rigs. I would be so happy if that made the list."Tony Hawk: RIDE", "Tony Hawk: RIDE" , "Tony Hawk: RIDE", "Tony Hawk: RIDE". Let's do it. Ready? Go! "" I didn't tweet about my new games. Maybe I should tweet random games to fudge the numbers. "
I agree not nearly everyone uses Twitter - but the statistical legitimacy is no different than a market research survey published online. Statistically speaking, there should be a relatively proportional number of people tweeting about each topic in relation to the number of people who own said game." While I always find numbers interesting, these are no were near as reliable as NPD numbers. There is a bias in audience here. Not everyone has a Twitter account, and even fewer feel the need to post on Twitter how they feel about their video game-related holiday gifts. That being said, I think it can reflect massive trends, but not smaller ones. We all know by now that the Wii's sales killed it from Thanksgiving on, and that Modern Warfare 2 was ridiculously huge, but I don't think one can extrapolate most individual game sales from something as this. "
Now Twitter's demographic is generally a bit older (tweens dont use it) and the Wii has been a phenomenon in the older demographic. So yes, there may be a slight bias - but not like what you're alluding to.
Look at Amazon's initial sales reports. It totally corroborates this report based on Tweets:
http://kotaku.c
I like how you edited that half in." @MaTtKs: I like how you totally ignored the last half of my post. "
But to acknowledge your newly-added paragraph, if a newly released game suddenly rises to the top to compete with the other top-10 games, such as DJ Hero did, I'd say that is a perfectly acceptable metric for how successful that game is relative to the other titles around it. Again, all the trends on that site are in relation to each other, and proportionately accurate in relation to each other. It may not represent the total number of players playing that game (probably not even close); but relatively speaking, it is an accurate representation in relation to the other games in the system...... Make sense?
No, I am disagreeing with your "flip-flopiness". Either you think the report is a neat representation of trends that is made-possible in real-time, or you do not. There is no in-between. Massive scale or no massive scale, since all topics are measured against each other, they are statistically proportional to each other." @MaTtKs: You quoted my "newly added" paragraph... You pretty much called me wrong, but ultimately agreed with me. "
I disagree with you, entirely. You are forgetting that Amazon is not the primary sales outlet, and in-fact would have a much more significant bias on overall sales figures than Tweets. Tweets come from the home - from someone's living room. It has a fair statistical chance of capturing those who bought the game online, versus those who bought it in a store. The demographic that shops on Amazon is just another added layer of complexity into the system, so actually isn't the ideal metric to compare this report to (it's just the only one to publish their data so far)." @MaTtKs: Yeah, there is an "inbetween" here. Massive trending in the video game market is bound to be reflected in a report like this. On Amazon, the top 5 items sold where Nintendo Wii products. With that kind of grand "outlier-i-ness", I would expect tweets to reflect that. But, on a smaller scale, like the sale of other, less spectacularly selling products, it's not going to reflect as accurately as the NPD sales. "
In short, I can't figure out why you're still trying to argue your point. Let me put it this way:
Even if a game is not as "spectacular" as you put it - then it would properly be reflected in the Tweets (it would be at the bottom of the charts). These charts never claim to represent tangible sales numbers - simply sales TRENDS. So it can paint an accurate trend picture for the not-so-spectacularly performing titles as the spectacularly performing ones, as you put it.
While i agree that using one merchants sales figures isn't going to be entirely accurate (as it isn't really a sample, only a member of a population), even though you give us this tweet chart and scream "Hey, look at this Amazon sales chart that Kotaku put up", I just don't think that there are enough people with twitter accounts that tweet about games. Twitter has a massively older audience. As of late March 2009, over 50% of the people that used twitter where older than 34, and I wouldn't really expect people that old to tweet about video game products.
Also, it's unfair to assume that a tweet is always used to positively describe a product.
But I agree this can be used to extrapolate certain, massive trends. Just not smaller ones.
Perhaps you should look into the actual numbers before just thinking about it. Aggregame has tracked 7,119,600 gaming related tweets since August 1, 2009 (and counting @ http://aggregame.com/live). I'd say that's a fair amount that gives you a nice idea of the current trends, on and off of Twitter." While i agree that using one merchants sales figures isn't going to be entirely accurate (as it isn't really a sample, only a member of a population), even though you give us this tweet chart and scream "Hey, look at this Amazon sales chart that Kotaku put up", I just don't think that there are enough people with twitter accounts that tweet about games. "
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