@lkpower said:
I'm very interested in a PS 4.5. I can understand why people reject it but I thought about something Vinny said on a recent podcast that was something to the effect of, "Are we going back to four year console cycles?"
Well, there was never really a a precedent for a four year cycle... Oh, it has happened once, but there have also been 5 year cycles, six year cycles and seven year cycles. There have also been system that has just gone away after two or three years....are those dead or non-cycles? If people are thinking of Xbox to Xbox 360 that was Microsoft getting out let in the PS2 era, and getting in early with Xbox 360 for teh next cycle. Not so much starting a new cycle as it was knowing they were f'd against PS2.
I think four year cycles are too short for developers, but also for publishers and buyers. We are in the third year of PS4/XBOne, and Uncharted and other big titles are just starting to arrive. Moreover, sales a great for consoles, they are ABOVE expectations. XBox One is lagging behind PS4, but it is selling. PS4 is breaking expectation for sales and people love it.
Now just in general:
Remember this isn't just a technical issues of 'could this be more powerful', this is a BUSINESS issue where profitability and install base matters a lot. Companies introduce the new thing only when the old thing is sagging in sales. Not in processing power, but in sales and profitability. That why last gen lasted so long, a long tail allowed companies to pull some profitability out of a slow starting generation. Yes, processing power was lacking for 360 and PS3, but that was not THE issue for either company. Squeezing every last dime out of what was out there was what mattered. It was a balance of power, cost, and profitability. Switching to a PS4.5 that is more power will fuck up software and hardware sales; i.e. everyone loses. Nobody wants that in teh industry.
So, what might PS4.5/PS4K exist. Well, some if not all of these reasons
- That is what you have R&D for to think up possibilities, even possibilities you don't need right away.
- Nobody knows what NX will REALLY be, so Sony has to plan just in case. Nintendo for the past three cycles has talked big, but they have never really put as much processing power as they boast early on. Sony has to plan for a NX that is twice, but I do notthink they expect that to happen at all.
- PlayStation VR was a consideration and R&D had to look at what PS4 could do and what a PS4.5 could do? That fact PSVR was announced means PS4 will run it, they would not have talked about it -in my opinion- unless it was ready to run on PS4 vanilla
- We are in year 3 and PS4 is ready for a semi-slim and/or a simplified model. They often simplify the manufacture by making a new PCB or reduce the amount of screws needed.
- To reduce heat or even just be more efficient Sony might be planning to use a 14nm SoC to replace the 22 nm chip. Smaller micro circuitry tracings means less electricity needed and lower heat. Less electricity means more efficient/lighter/or smaller PSU is needed. Moreover, less cooling needed and that chip might be the same price. Perhaps, the system MIGHT see a tiny increase in processing power, but that might not even be worth mentioning because it woudl be inconsistent from game to game.
- Sony itself might want PS4 to work better on it own 4K televisions. If Sony knows they need a different encoder or if they know a different connector might help, the PlayStation division would plan that in the slimmed/simplified model.
I keep banging this drum, but a PS4K/4.5 that is substantial more powerful HELPS nobody. It doesn't help Sony sell more system as a better profit than they have now. It doesn't help developers working on current games without putting them back MONTHS. It doesn't help publishers who will see software sales for current games and the games expected in teh next 18 months to slow. Nobody wins from a PS4K that is actually more powerful in CPU and GPU...nobody....hell, not even AMD who makes Sony's chips would likely profit unless Sony is willing to pay SUBSTANTIALLY more per chip. Guess what? Sony wouldn't be willing to do that, not even for VR.
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