Here's a dumb idea I've been thinking about that doesn't totally work, but makes more sense to me than the other theories, so excuse me while I ramble. The Lost Sinner is Aldia.
The biggest problem with this idea is the fact that the items clearly refer to the lost sinner as female. A couple things could explain this away. First, since it seems the sinner is controlled in some way by what looks like a chaos bug, it could be that the lost sinner is a she in personality/character alone, since she is the Witch of Izalith, while the host is male in terms of sex. Since it seems like "Navlaan", also tied to Aldia's experiments, was possessed in some way and the new personality took over, it could have been a result of Aldia's experiments. Since we know his work into giants souls and dragons didn't work out, he could very well have turned to drastic measures, including pyromancy to relight the fire. The pyromancy Forbidden Sun originates from Aldia's experiments after all, and could imply that Aldia's research was looking in that direction. The Lost Sinner imprisoned herself, so it could be similar to Navlaan's situation, where Aldia realized how dangerous trying to manipulate the first flame could be (Chaos Demons), and so locked himself away in a place where he, or the bug/soul that was controlling him, could not keep trying.
Other things I'd point out is that in the lead up to the Lost Sinner's chamber/cell, we encounter the same mutants that are found in Aldia's Keep. Their description in the official guide (I don't own it myself, but the description is up on the wiki) says that they are hollows who appear to be half dragon, and are a result of some horrible experiment. If Aldia had experimented on creating dragons, it makes sense that he'd have plenty of unsuccessful attempts first, such as these.
Finally, the Lost Sinner has a great big bushy beard. It's more pronounced in the art book, but still noticeable in game. If my calculations are correct, most girls don't have huge beards. That said, Gwyndolin had some rather strange sexual dimorphism himself, so we could just be dealing with a bearded woman. Either way there's a lot of strange stuff surrounding the Lost Sinner, and I look forward to everyone poking holes in this theory.
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