Hey there, folks, and welcome to my undoubtedly laughably wrong predictions for the New Year. I plan on examining each of the Big Three, taking a look at what the last year brought for us and what I think is in store for the future. I'll also throw down a few random game predictions. Please feel free to poke holes in any of my predictions or tell me what clues I've missed. And feel free to play along in the comments or your own blog.
I'm not quite ready to call 2015 closed in terms of my GOTY lists and blogs. There are still a couple of games on the PS4 I might yet have a chance to sink my teeth into, and it's still far too early in the month to entirely rule either one of them out. I'll tell you this much, though - my mental GOTY list is pretty nutty and still in flux. The last couple of months have seen some great games, albeit maybe with less of a stellar showing than I expected. Whatever the list ends up being, it'll be quite a bit stranger than I anticipated it to be at the beginning of the year.
What a close of the year, though. Sony knocked it out of the park at PSX with some genuinely exciting showings for their VR tech and Final Fantasy. I'm also immensely pleased that we'll be getting a rerelease of Full Throttle, though I'm a bit worried about how the Road Rage-esque portion of that game will hold up in 2015, since it was pretty much garbage twenty years ago. Oh, and I'll finally get a chance to play Day of the Tentacle - I know it was announced previously, but whatever, I'm still excited about it.
I think VR looks neater and neater, though it's definitely not a thing I want to opt into right away. @marino has talked to me a bit about it on Twitter, and it seems like the Sony goggles should be able to fit around my thick glasses, but it's one of those things I'd actually like to try for myself before dropping a stupid amount of money on it - or whatever headset I end up going with. I think the smart move is to wait and see which ones do well and maybe buy into the second generation. We'll see, though I'm definitely excited to see where the tech goes and what it leads to down the line.
Let's get things started by going back and taking a look at my predictions from last year.
I Suck at Predicting Things, 2014 Edition
The Exclusives War is Stoked
I was only slightly off on this one. Microsoft and Sony continued their 2014 trend of supporting third party developers with "our console first" philosophies, particularly with the announcements of Final Fantasy VII and Shenmue 3. Sony in particular has really been beating this drum, though Microsoft really delivered one hell of a Christmas surprise in Tomb Raider, which I'm really looking forward to playing... some day.
Nintendo, unsurprisingly, continued its pie-in-the-sky first party development, I was way off base by assuming they would make 3DS announcements and games their focus this year, as this was clearly the year of the Wii U in their stable. I'm definitely glad to see them put more and more focus on becoming a brand unto themselves. If they can continue to push out quality games in a timely fashion, whatever the NX ends up being will do just fine, particularly once you factor in their massive back catalog.
I Predicted Some Games Were Coming Too
I screwed up with my Nintendo predictions. As mentioned, I genuinely thought we'd see a large focus by Nintendo and third-parties on the 3DS, which... just didn't happen. Obviously, I didn't gauge the handheld market with any degree of accuracy and that prediction was completely wrong. I guess we did see a new Fire Emblem get announced, so.. yay?
On Microsoft's side, I predicted that they'd push for Overwatch on consoles, which is half right - it will be released on both consoles as well as the PC. I was also half right in predicting some big Minecraft news - but that was more to do with the cool-looking tech associated with their Minecraft showing at E3 than anything related to the game itself. Oh well. I was also right about Rare coming back in a big way - their E3 showing was brief, but pretty neat. Really looking forward to that new IP.
My Sony predictions were largely okay. I was wrong about Jak and Daxter and even more wrong about the oversaturation of Ratchet and Clank (still think that's the wrong move, but whatever, R&C are quality little gems). Most of my other predictions were too bland here to be far from wrong. Of course a new Gran Turismo was announced. Of course PS2 games are now available via PSN. Other than that, eh. It was always going to be a mostly predictable year for Sony.
I was right about Fallout 4, sorta right about XCOM 2 (how is that not on consoles? How?), and mostly off-base about the rest of my hopes and predictions. Overall, I'll give myself a pat on the back for getting some things mostly right and a kick to my own shin for thinking anyone would want to develop for the 3DS, including Nintendo.
The Coming Year
Nintendo
Either Nintendo has figured out its problems or it hasn't. That and the state of VR at the end of 2016 are the two largest questions I have right now about gaming. I think Nintendo's learned a lot about the direction it should take in this last year with the success of Splatoon and Mario Maker. But will it have enough time to implement what those lessons imparted by the time the NX hits? I honestly don't know - but I'm sure willing to speculate on it!
A year ago, I'd have said that there's no way Nintendo has its shit together for a new console launch. No 3rd party in its right mind is going to develop for the thing, which leaves the ball entirely in Nintendo's court. A year ago, that would have spelled unmitigated disaster had the NX launched in 2015. But now, with two of the year's raddest games under its belt, Nintendo seems to have finally - finally! - grounded itself in reality by acknowledging its core strengths and shearing a lot of its weaknesses.
I think that leaves Nintendo in its strongest position since the launch of the Wii. We've seen little of note in terms of big new announced projects. The House of N has something cooking, and baby, I'm liking what I'm smelling. I'm not sure entirely what Nintendo will consider sure bets for a new platform's release, but we'll almost assuredly see a gigantic new 3D Mario, something in an original line akin to Galaxy.
We'll also see a dual launch of the new Zelda game, which will undoubtedly annoy some but should be a smart financial move on their part. I'm going to go out on a limb and say a new 2D Metroid will also be shown. Although the games aren't popular in Japan as they are in the West, it might be just the sort of thing Nintendo puts out to appeal to the world.
Will we see a new F-Zero? Sure. Think about it - it's been dormant for a long time, and it'd make a hell of a pretty showcase for whatever the NX ends up being. I think too Nintendo knows it has to rely on nostalgia a bit to bolster sales. This should certainly help.
What I'm really hoping for are new IPs from Nintendo. I don't even know what I want, but I think Splatoon's success has freed them creatively to start pursuing some new ideas. That is maybe the most exciting thing in store for us from Big N. Let's hope it's true.
As to what the NX will be, I'm not sure. I think the idea that it's a dual handheld/TV console is neat. I hope it's that, with a hopefully more ergonomic handheld portion. Whatever it winds up being, I'm excited to see it.
Sony
Good on Sony for delivering on a lot of nostalgic bullshit this last year. They clearly see what people want, and are willing to either go out and help push it or secure it themselves. That's a great philosophy to have, and it's one I hope continues in 2016. Sure, it's a bit of marketing devilry, but those games were popular for reasons, and people deserve to have games that cater to their desires.
I will freely predict that my GOTY for 2016 winds up being Ni no Kuni 2 if it launches this coming year. I loved the original, and the brief footage we saw of 2 looks so damned good. I'm hoping we see Dark Cloud 2 available on PSn sooner rather than later, though that'd be a pretty great title to drop on fans shortly before a PAX or E3.
As for new announcements... hm. Some kind of chintzy DLC exclusivity with Square for FFXV seems like a no brainer. With Kingdom Hearts 3 and Star Ocean both coming out supposedly next year too, that seems like Square's RPG lineup is locked.
I want Sony to bring it at E3 with first party exclusives, but I'm just not sure what exactly I want them to bring. There aren't any first party games from their prior years that really stand out to me as must haves for this console generation beyond Uncharted and Gran Turismo, and those have already been announced. I hope they jump on some new IPs. I want to see them continue their indie push, and bring even more PC games over to the console. The more places you can play games, the better.
I guess I'd better come up with something substantive here, shouldn't I? OK, let's see. I'll guess that Sony's big E3 stuff will be VR related - with the biggest GB pleaser being a Windjammers-esque game not entirely dissimilar to what we saw at PSX. That seems like a cool VR thing that could easily happen. For the PS4, I'll say that Sony announces a big first-party open world game, something along the lines of a Grand Theft Auto, though maybe a big more PG-13. I have no reason to suspect that, except that open world games keep getting bigger and bigger and I'm sure that would make an awesome new IP for them.
All in all, it'll be another year of staying the course for Sony, but that's a good thing in their case. I hope they continue to expand upon ideas like their accessibility options and continue to be a cool little console.
Microsoft
Fuzion Frenzy 3.
OK, I kid. I do think we're likely to see Microsoft eyeballing the family friendly market, something I think they've been missing with some of their recent showings. We're likely to see some kind of push towards a party game - or possibly a party game hub, with optional buy-in games not entirely dissimilar to the Jackbox. That seems right up MS's alley and would be a smart, play-it-safe move for box Live and Gold.
I'm also guessing we see Microsoft hit first-party development hard this year. With Halo Wars 2 already being announced, we've got some room for weird in their world, so why not a big, first-person RPG in a new IP exclusive to Microsoft? Really get in there and try hitting that RPG heavy bag again. We've seen some cool tech demos of RPGs supposedly for this generation that haven't led anywhere in particular, and Microsoft has to prove its system is still for the gamer, so why not a big new RPG to show off?
And hey... how about a Lost Odyssey 2 teaser, possibly for a 2017 release? Maybe?
Let's see, what else? Something explodey and kablooey for the Christmas sales... hmmm. How's about a timed exclusive deal on a new Sleeping Dogs? Sure! Let's predict that! It's one in the morning and I'm feeling a little crazy, so let's go there.
Oh, Fable Legends finally comes out to a collective sound of fart noises. Fuck that game. Build Fable 4.
The Rest
Watch Dogs 2 - This seems like a good year for Ubi to announce Watch Dogs 2, then quickly delay it to 2017 and possibly beyond. If it can live up to Watch Dogs potential (it can't), they might have a bonafide every-other-year sequel on their hands. Like Ubi needed another. Ugh.
XCOM 2 announced for consoles by the end of the year. Duh. Because it should be.
Hideo Kojima announces a new partnership, studio, et cetera. Won't announce any actual games until 2017.
Rockstar announces a new IP. I think this makes the most sense for them, though I like the rumors of a Bully 2 or Red Dead spinoff.
Borderlands 3 is announced at E3. Gearbox's Mooter (MOBA-shooter, get it?) is swept quietly under the rug by year's end and abandoned because that game looks like garbage and they keep shitting all over it by comparing it to Borderlands, which is far and away the better game.
Persona 5 ends up launching somewhere in 2016 and is stupid amounts of fun. Atlus announces another IP to be brought to consoles, probably something Persona-esque.
Along similar lines, Japan finally wakes up and starts making games for the PS4 rather than the PS3. Seriously, how the hell do you release Yakuza 5 on the PS3 and not the PS4? Oh wait... because it's Japan.
A new Suikoden and Wild ARMs are announced and pigs begin to fly.
Shadows of Mordor 2 is announced, probably for 2017.
Portal 3 is announced.
Mass Effect Whatever is totally okay.
A new Assassin's Creed is announced, this one in eastern Europe/Russia.
Some kind of Civilization-esque game is announced for consoles and PC, though curiously, it's not made by Firaxis.
Several big RPG projects will be announced from relatively fresh developers, projects we've seen tech demos for but nothing substantial. This should be a good year for mid-tier developers to come out in droves.
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