Console cycle estimations!

 
With the 360 having its 5 year anniversary and the 4 year anniversary of the PS3 in November, its time to start thinking into the future. Now it's safe to assume that each system has at least 2 years left in the gas tank and that R & D is going on at both Microsoft and Sony but how long before we get glimpses and unveilings of future consoles?  I think we might start seeing some shadowy glimpses or leaked info on future consoles by E3 2011, as it would seem to go with the logical flow of the console cycle. One thing to keep in mind is the down economy and its effect on consumers entertainment allowances.
Just to point out, there was a 5 year gap in between PS1 and PS2 but only a 4 year gap between the Xbox and the X360.  
 
So what views do you guys have on this topic?

THE ATARI WILL RISE AGAIN! 

Estimated years for North American releases:
 

2011

• Nintendo 3DS
• PSP2
• New Xbox 360 SKU

2012

• Nintendo Wii 2
• Xbox 360 successor (late 2012)
  

2013

• PS4 (early 2013)
• New Nintendo 3DS SKU (early 2013)

This generation will obviously last longer than many people thought. And I like it.
 
My guess is that the 360 will stick around longer than until 2012. I say no (really) new xbox before 2013. 
 
PS4 will follow shortly afterwards.
 
No guess for Nintendo except a Wii HD maybe next year. They're all over the place and who knows what they do with/to their next console.

" Estimated years for North American releases:
 

2011

 

• Nintendo 3DS
• PSP2
• New Xbox 360 SKU

2012

 

• Nintendo Wii 2
• Xbox 360 successor (late 2012)
  

 

2013

 

• PS4 (early 2013)
• New Nintendo 3DS SKU (early 2013)

  Took these estimations out of my ass, naturally. "

There has to be a bigger gap than the last cycle, but at the same time MS and Sony both have to want to be first out of the gate.  Nintendo will be Nintendo and do it's own unpredictable thing.

A Microsoft spokesperson has said that Natal is coming in "the middle of the 360 lifespan", so this implies the next Xbox won't launch until 2014-2015.  
 
In addition, we typically hear whispers of consoles 3 years before launch, rumors 2 years before, and keynote presentations 1 year before. Since we haven't even heard whispers yet, that makes the launch of something like the Xbox "720" in the year 2014 or later the most likely. Consoles generally launch within a year of each other, so either way we've got at the very least around 3 years we get to have our hands on any new consoles. 

I seem to remember about 6 months back that an activision exec said that they had not recieved anything about new consoles from any of the big 3. This implies that it is going to be quite a while before the next cycle, even if they have gotten something since then. (which is cool with me, I can't afford another funbox and I don't have an HDTV).

" THE ATARI WILL RISE AGAIN!  "

Time to pull things out of my ass too:

360:

Natal 360 Slim this year. - 2010 
New Dashboard next year (that looks identical to this one we have but with more tweaks and natal gimmicks) - 2011
Next 360 and plans revealed, new plans with windows live for PC and crap and connectivity with the 360 - 2012
Nothing much, more specs and features, changes, delays and stuff - 2013
New Xbox launch - 2014 Fall

PS3: 

Move release, PSN premium service, new PSN features revealed - 2010
More PSN stuff, 3D, Sony going full force with software lineups - 2011
PS2 emulation and releases on PSN - 2012
PS4 revealed, more shit with Move, backward compatibility and future of PSN discussed, and also the talk of how PSX/PS2/PS3 from PSN games will transfer from PS3 to PS4 - 2013
PS4 release - 2014 
PS3 will still last through 2014 and probably 2015 due to PSN still being accessible with both hardwares, while people can slowly move and transfer to PS4.

Don't know about Nintendo. Hopefully Wii HD when I have to buy one this year.