To be honest, someone who hasn't played the previous games in the series is not really the best person to judge MGS4. Metal Gear is one of the most plot driven game franchises out there, so prior knowledge of the plot is essential to understanding the games.
However, as a huge and long time Metal Gear fan myself, I think that MGS4 is the weakest numbered title by far, in both plot and even gameplay. MGS3, MGS2 & MGS1 are much better. For a start, there was never supposed to be a Metal Gear game set after MGS2 (my second favourite & the most misunderstood and underrated game in the series IMO), it was actually meant to be the final game. The whole point of the ending in MGS2 was that the player decided for themselves what happened, it was an ambiguous ending which allowed for a sequel - yet didn't demand one. This is exactly the reason Kojima made MGS3 (my personal favourite in the series) a prequel set in the 1960s, but unfortunately there was fan & corporate pressure for another Solid Snake game and a game set after MGS2, so Kojima was pretty much forced into MGS4 - and that's where it all goes wrong. The plot in MGS4 is a big contrived, incoherent mess - rather than continuing the excellent themes & narrative from MGS2, they forced the relevance of MGS3, the prequel made after MGS2, into the game when really it should have had no - or very, very little - bearing on the plot. Some of the narrative and characters that appear in the game shamelessly retcon the events established in the older games. As I said, it's a mess. It is not a bad game and the plot is better than a lot of games out there (in the gaming industry this isn't saying much, unfortunately), but for a Metal Gear game, it is definitely weak. I get the impression while playing it that Kojima's heart was just not in the plot, hence all the fan service and contrivances.
I'm excited for MGSV because it is a game Kojima is excited about making it and the trailers and what we know of the narrative so far seems very promising, with the whole "race" & "revenge" themes - and child soldiers - and open world gameplay - and Kiefer Sutherland - and the possibility of playing an Evil Big Boss, it remains to be seen if it'll recapture the narrative magic of MGS1,2,3 though.
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