Fact: Avatar will not win best picture at the Oscars.

I am posting this because people are so sure that Avatar will win the oscar but me i am not convinced. The reason i think people are so sure that Avatar will win, in my view, is just because it won the best picture at the golden globes. Now allow me to say this: JUST BECAUSE A MOVIE WINS THE BEST PICTURE DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL WIN THE OSCAR. Allow me to point all of you to the facts. 
 
The 2008 winner of the best picture of the golden globes was Slumdog Millionaire . The Oscar Slumdog Millionaire.   
  
2007 GG: Atonement. Oscar: No Country for Old Men
2006 GG: Babel. Oscar: The Departed 
2005 GG: Brokeback Mountain. Oscar: Crash. (Crash wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe) 
2004 GG: The Aviator. Oscar: Million Dollar Baby 
2003 GG: LOTR ROTK. Oscar: Same movie 
2002 GG: The Hours. Oscar: Chicago. (Again Chicago wasn't nominated for the Golden Globe) 
 
I can keep this list going but as you can see there is only two time that the Oscars and the Golden Globes gave the best picture to the same movie. Now i realize that the Academy is very unpredictable with their awards so they might give the Oscar to something crazy like Up (not that it doesn't deserve it. Its just that its an animated film I'm not sure that The Oscars would do that). So there are my thoughts. 

I am posting this because people are so sure that Avatar will win the oscar but me i am not convinced. The reason i think people are so sure that Avatar will win, in my view, is just because it won the best picture at the golden globes. Now allow me to say this: JUST BECAUSE A MOVIE WINS THE BEST PICTURE DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL WIN THE OSCAR. Allow me to point all of you to the facts. 
 
The 2008 winner of the best picture of the golden globes was Slumdog Millionaire . The Oscar Slumdog Millionaire.   
  
2007 GG: Atonement. Oscar: No Country for Old Men
2006 GG: Babel. Oscar: The Departed 
2005 GG: Brokeback Mountain. Oscar: Crash. (Crash wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe) 
2004 GG: The Aviator. Oscar: Million Dollar Baby 
2003 GG: LOTR ROTK. Oscar: Same movie 
2002 GG: The Hours. Oscar: Chicago. (Again Chicago wasn't nominated for the Golden Globe) 
 
I can keep this list going but as you can see there is only two time that the Oscars and the Golden Globes gave the best picture to the same movie. Now i realize that the Academy is very unpredictable with their awards so they might give the Oscar to something crazy like Up (not that it doesn't deserve it. Its just that its an animated film I'm not sure that The Oscars would do that). So there are my thoughts. 

Avatar is a terrible movie plot-wise... it's only good because of the amazing effects(which it should win every technical achievement award) 
 
One dimensional characters, cheesy romances, and forgettable plot lines doesn't make it a great movie 2 years from now

Blue , fish, cat, monkey people?

Babel won a Golden Globe? Yikes.

Golden Globes is a popularity contest. Oscars is more about picking the best movie...though I still think The Queen should've won in 2006. The Departed was my second choice.

I think you're right. Sci-Fi movies don't win Best Pic Oscars. It's one of those dirty unwritten Hollywood rules.

Avatar is going to win whether you like it or not.. 
I sure don't like it.

" Golden Globes is a popularity contest. Oscars is more about picking the best movie...though I still think The Queen should've won in 2006. The Departed was my second choice. "

A Serious Man will win because the don't ask don't tell debate is firing up. Don't you know anything about the Oscars? Liberal agenda pushers. And I say that as a left leaner.

I think Avatar will win because the Hollywood elites eat these movies up. Hollywood loves to get political when it comes to movies that have just a smidgen of politics in it.

Does this even need to be said? Avatar will not win best picture when it wasn't even nominated for best screenplay. That hasn't happened to any movie since................Titanic........ 
 
Seriously though, Avatar was great, and a lot of fun, but it won't win the oscar for best picture. That will almost certainly be "The Hurt Locker" 
@Bones8677 said:

" I think Avatar will win because the Hollywood elites eat these movies up. Hollywood loves to get political when it comes to movies that have just a smidgen of politics in it. "

No, no, no. OP is right. Avatar will not win, regardless of anyone's personal feelings toward the movie.
 
Here, take a look at this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Best_Picture
 
How many sci-fi movies have won (the winners are labeled in yellow)? Take your time.
 
That's right... Sci-Fi movies frequently get nominated, but never win.

Fantasy movies occaionally win, and ridiculously expensive movies often win. So it stands a chance with those two factors.

so true but award shows are stupid now in days. they are all based upon popularity.

" Fantasy movies occaionally win, and ridiculously expensive movies often win. So it stands a chance with those two factors. "

OH HEY OP CAN I BORROWS YOU TIME MACHINE SOMETIME BROSKI?!
 
Seriously though, 3 reasons Avatar might not win: The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up In The Air.

" OH HEY OP CAN I BORROWS YOU TIME MACHINE SOMETIME BROSKI?!  Seriously though, 3 reasons Avatar might not win: The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up In The Air. "

" Avatar is a terrible movie plot-wise... it's only good because of the amazing effects(which it should win every technical achievement award)  One dimensional characters, cheesy romances, and forgettable plot lines doesn't make it a great movie 2 years from now "

Yeah, I told a Avatar-fan friend that District 9 got a best picture nomination with like 10% of Avatar's budget, and he responded that it doesn't matter since he thinks Avatar will win. I hope it doesn't win though, as I agree with what Ryan said on this week's podcast.

" I am posting this because people are so sure that Avatar will win the oscar but me i am not convinced. The reason i think people are so sure that Avatar will win, in my view, is just because it won the best picture at the golden globes. Now allow me to say this: JUST BECAUSE A MOVIE WINS THE BEST PICTURE DOESN'T MEAN IT WILL WIN THE OSCAR. Allow me to point all of you to the facts.  The 2008 winner of the best picture of the golden globes was Slumdog Millionaire . The Oscar Slumdog Millionaire.     2007 GG: Atonement. Oscar: No Country for Old Men2006 GG: Babel. Oscar: The Departed 2005 GG: Brokeback Mountain. Oscar: Crash. (Crash wasn't even nominated for the Golden Globe) 2004 GG: The Aviator. Oscar: Million Dollar Baby 2003 GG: LOTR ROTK. Oscar: Same movie 2002 GG: The Hours. Oscar: Chicago. (Again Chicago wasn't nominated for the Golden Globe)  I can keep this list going but as you can see there is only two time that the Oscars and the Golden Globes gave the best picture to the same movie. Now i realize that the Academy is very unpredictable with their awards so they might give the Oscar to something crazy like Up (not that it doesn't deserve it. Its just that its an animated film I'm not sure that The Oscars would do that). So there are my thoughts.  "

" @TurboMan said:

" Avatar is a terrible movie plot-wise... it's only good because of the amazing effects(which it should win every technical achievement award)  One dimensional characters, cheesy romances, and forgettable plot lines doesn't make it a great movie 2 years from now "

Yeah, anyone who saw Avatar wasted there money and should be put to sleep. *sarcasm* "

" @Jack_Daniels:   I said plot-wise. Avatar is an experience everyone should see. But is it the best movie of the year? No. It's not in the top 30. "

" @TheHT said:

" OH HEY OP CAN I BORROWS YOU TIME MACHINE SOMETIME BROSKI?!  Seriously though, 3 reasons Avatar might not win: The Hurt Locker, Precious, Up In The Air. "

golden globes... and all three of those films are very overrated... and i loved the hurt locker. im gonna come back to this when it does win... and make fun of the OP.  "

I personally thought District 9 was the best sci-fi movie of '09... Avatar was a fun movie... I just don't think it deserves all the hype and James Cameron worshipping that it has caused.
 
The thing is I think James Cameron is a huge douchebag sociopath who thinks that he shits gold and sweats diamonds, and I just want to punch him right in the dick.
 
PS: Avatar is Pocahontas in space:

Ah, it's gonna be really close. Avatar was the front-runner for a good while. It's a two picture race: Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker with Inglourious Basterds being the dark horse pic.
 
Avatar is the "popular" pick, while Locker is the smart pick. I don't think that Avatar will win, but it's going to be extremely close. I would not count the movie out, not by a long shot.
 
Besides, if Lord of the Rings won Best Picture, who says that Avatar can't?

" Ah, it's gonna be really close. Avatar was the front-runner for a good while. It's a two picture race: Avatar vs. The Hurt Locker with Inglourious Basterds being the dark horse pic.
 
Avatar is the "popular" pick, while Locker is the smart pick. I don't think that Avatar will win, but it's going to be extremely close. I would not count the movie out, not by a long shot.
 
Besides, if Lord of the Rings won Best Picture, who says that Avatar can't? "

" @TwoOneFive:   Because it's a visual experience that no other movie can currently offer. It's a great popcorn movie. Is it a movie with any depth or interesting story that's not going to be lost three years from now? No.  Remember King Kong? "

" @Jack_Daniels:   I said plot-wise. Avatar is an experience everyone should see. But is it the best movie of the year? No. It's not in the top 30. "

" @TurboMan said:

" @Jack_Daniels:   I said plot-wise. Avatar is an experience everyone should see. But is it the best movie of the year? No. It's not in the top 30. "

Top 30 films... of the year? I beg to differ. "

Ah, it is all pointless anyway... the academy is all about art house crap and foreign films, and nothing even matters anymore...
 
I lost all faith for the oscars when ang lee got best director for brokeback mountain... I am beginning to think it is all about public image and how they want to show that they arent bigots and they cant just like a movie for being good, but they have to appease minorities and seem like good people.... It is basically like politicians trying to seem like the good guy to as many people as possible.

" Ah, it is all pointless anyway... the academy is all about art house crap and foreign films, and nothing even matters anymore...  I lost all faith for the oscars when ang lee got best director for brokeback mountain... I am beginning to think it is all about public image and how they want to show that they arent bigots and they cant just like a movie for being good, but they have to appease minorities and seem like good people.... It is basically like politicians trying to seem like the good guy to as many people as possible. "

To regurgitate the oft-used argument on this site: Who cares?! It's just an opinion, right? Right?
 
....... Right?

" @jmrwacko said:

" @TurboMan said:

" @Jack_Daniels:   I said plot-wise. Avatar is an experience everyone should see. But is it the best movie of the year? No. It's not in the top 30. "

Top 30 films... of the year? I beg to differ. "

i cant even name 30 films this year lol not even 20 "

1. Inglorious Bastards
2. Up
3. Up in the air
4. Where The Wild Things Are
5. The Hurt Locker
6. Moon
7. Ponyo
8. In The Loop
9. Drag Me To Hell
10. The Informant
11. Zombieland
12. A Serious Man
13. District 9
14. The Hangover
15. Coraline
16. Star Trek
17. Watchmen
18. It Might Get Loud
19. The Brothers Bloom
20. Fantastic Mr. Fox
21. Away We Go
22. Harry Potter
23. Precious
24. Observe and Report
25. Adventure Land
26. Slumdog Millionaire(technically 2009 movie)
27. Anvil! Story of Anvil
28. Funny People(first half is phenomenal)
29. The Wrestler
30. Big Fan

Fact: My butt itches.

" I think you're right. Sci-Fi movies don't win Best Pic Oscars. It's one of those dirty unwritten Hollywood rules. "

Hmm. Personally I think Avatar would get it because of the huge momentum this movie has had and I can see the Academy Awards bending to it and giving it the award. I would prefer if Hurt Locker got the movie instead, but my true desire that I know won't happen would be for District 9 to take the award but I do realize that will just be in my dreams.

" @Adamantium said:

" I think you're right. Sci-Fi movies don't win Best Pic Oscars. It's one of those dirty unwritten Hollywood rules. "

You may be right. But in this case it should just be a case of Avatar isn't that good, problem solved. I think District 9 is probably more worthy of Oscar talk in terms of Sc-Fi offerings, or movies with Sci-Fi aspects at least. Even then there are probably a few more, more likely choices ahead of that film also. I loved that journo in the background you could hear going "Yeah!" when Inglorious Basterds was nominated. I guess it isn't too hard to work out who he was going for. "

" @TurboMan: It is a horrible travesty and an insult to the world of film to say that Observe and Report is at all similar to Taxi Driver. You must have some serious problems with sight and hearing and frankly most of your senses to compare the two. "