Movie I want to win: Zero Dark Thirty
Movie I think is going to win: Lincoln
Already a thread on this, but Lincoln is most likely to win and is most deserving (though Spielberg is the worst part of the movie so him winning Director is kind of silly).
I will say there's a pretty solid argument for the Avengers and a weaker argument for Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises; without the 3 of those films Hollywood would be floundering in a vacuum of resourcelessness.
I've seen very few of the films. However, going off the history of the Oscars and the general talk of Hollywood:
Yeah. Lincoln is gonna win it. It's kind of bullshit, because Zero Dark Thirty is fucking brilliantly done all around...and it's a vastly more important movie than Lincoln in a lot of ways.
Also, I'm now reminded of just how fucking amazing 2007 was for films. Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, and No Country For Old Men were all in the Best Picture category. GODDAMN THOSE MOVIES ARE GREAT!
@jakob187: I think your analysis is spot on, that is precisely the reason why I listed Lincoln as the film that will probably win. I think it would have taken Best Picture and Best Director easily even without Daniel Day-Lewis...with him it's a shoe-in, and along with a likely Best Actor nod as well, making it his third win. Crazy.
I think Argo was a good movie. It was not the best movie of the year in my opinion and I am sort of continually mystified as to why people think it should win over Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, or even Les Miserables. Personally I am voting Lincoln, I think it was the all around best film of the year. It was certainly the best acted one.
Lincoln looks like the safe bet, but Argo has been cleaning up most of the pre-Oscar best picture awards, so it's hard to say. The only thing working against Argo it in terms of odds is the lack of a directing nod for Ben Affleck. That's normally a clear indication that a film isn't going to win, but normally films with no director nod don't collect as many pre-Oscar accolades. So it could go either way, but I'm going to say Lincoln. I think the academy feels like they owe Spielberg a 2nd best picture after the whole Shakespeare in Love thing anyway.
Anything past those two is an extreme long shot.
My favorite films of the year were The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Searching for Sugar Man. Lincoln and Argo were both very good but didn't jump out at me the way a lot other films did this year.
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