Which film do you think is going to win Best Picture on Sunday?

Movie I want to win: Tie: Django Unchained and Beasts of the Southern Wild

Movie that's probably going to win: Lincoln.

Already a thread on this, but Lincoln is most likely to win and is most deserving (though Spielberg is the worst part of the movie so him winning Director is kind of silly).

I will say there's a pretty solid argument for the Avengers and a weaker argument for Skyfall and The Dark Knight Rises; without the 3 of those films Hollywood would be floundering in a vacuum of resourcelessness.

I've only seen Silver Linings Playbook, so I can't say if it's better than the rest, but it's probably not going to win.

Argo seems like a safe bet.

Argo will win.

The wrong one.

Choosing Lincoln for best picture and Daniel Day-Lewis for best actor.

Argo will probably win but I think Lincoln deserves it. Despite my love of Argo, Lincoln was my favorite movie of the year by a mile.

Man, I have not seen even a single one of these. I really need to catch up...

I've only seen two of these so I can't really comment. Django and ZD30 were pretty awesome though. I'd probably give it to Django though, just for sheer entertainment value.

Argo is going to win, but I would personally like Lincoln to win. Man, that movie was good.

I've seen very few of the films. However, going off the history of the Oscars and the general talk of Hollywood:

1. There have only been three times that a winner in Best Picture didn't have the director nominated, the last of which was Driving Miss Daisy in 1989. This gives Zero Dark Thirty and Argo a bad chance of winning, as Oscar voters typically like to work in pairs with Best Director/Picture.
2. There is a lot of flak in Hollywood towards Zero Dark Thirty, so doubt it will win.
3. Amour is directed by Haneke, who a lot of Hollywood hate as is.
4. Django Unchained had a lot of controversy around it, and the Oscars don't typically give Best Picture to a movie with that much controversy (see Brokeback Mountain).
5. Les Miserables is a musical, and a lot of people are still pissed about Chicago winning. Doubtful for them, but I'm sure Anne Hathaway is getting an Oscar.
6. Silver Linings Playbook is directed by David O. Russell. Fat...fucking...chance...of winning a Best Picture solely because of its dickbag director.
7. Life of Pi is visually great, but there are some people that still didn't like how heavy-handed the ending is.
8. Lincoln is a safe choice overall, as Daniel Day-Lewis is...well...he's Daniel fucking Day-Lewis. He wins Oscars. It's what he does. He should have won an Oscar for every single fucking performance he's done, but sometimes people are dickbags. I still can't believe the muthafucker didn't get it for Bill The Butcher! Anyways, back on topic... It's Spielberg and DDL in a movie about a president that people have been taught was great and excellent in the middle of an American presidency where the current president has constantly been compared to Lincoln in and out.

Yeah. Lincoln is gonna win it. It's kind of bullshit, because Zero Dark Thirty is fucking brilliantly done all around...and it's a vastly more important movie than Lincoln in a lot of ways.

Also, I'm now reminded of just how fucking amazing 2007 was for films. Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood, and No Country For Old Men were all in the Best Picture category. GODDAMN THOSE MOVIES ARE GREAT!

I haven't seen any of those movies.

@jakob187: I think your analysis is spot on, that is precisely the reason why I listed Lincoln as the film that will probably win. I think it would have taken Best Picture and Best Director easily even without Daniel Day-Lewis...with him it's a shoe-in, and along with a likely Best Actor nod as well, making it his third win. Crazy.

I think Argo was a good movie. It was not the best movie of the year in my opinion and I am sort of continually mystified as to why people think it should win over Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, or even Les Miserables. Personally I am voting Lincoln, I think it was the all around best film of the year. It was certainly the best acted one.

I liked Silver Linings Playbook quite a bit, so that's my pick. Don't know what "the academy" would choose.

Didnt saw any film of last year to make any sort of informed opinion so.... Judge Dredd?

Lincoln looks like the safe bet, but Argo has been cleaning up most of the pre-Oscar best picture awards, so it's hard to say. The only thing working against Argo it in terms of odds is the lack of a directing nod for Ben Affleck. That's normally a clear indication that a film isn't going to win, but normally films with no director nod don't collect as many pre-Oscar accolades. So it could go either way, but I'm going to say Lincoln. I think the academy feels like they owe Spielberg a 2nd best picture after the whole Shakespeare in Love thing anyway.

Anything past those two is an extreme long shot.

My favorite films of the year were The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Searching for Sugar Man. Lincoln and Argo were both very good but didn't jump out at me the way a lot other films did this year.

I think Argo will win which is fine because that film was excellent. My favorite remains Django Unchained.

Either Argo or Lincoln. If there was a year in recent memory in which a film had a solid chance of winning Best Picture without Best Director, it would be this year with Argo.

Lincoln will win, if not Argo.

I think this is a new record for me. I only know the plot of one of the films, and it's a documentary based on recent events.

Silver Linings Playbook because Jennifer Lawrence is way too hot.

• Will win: Argo
• Should win: Django Unchained

Edit: I'm pretty sure I've commented on a different thread about this same subject already. Oh well.

Haven't seen any of them so I'll just go with my Tarantino and his movie Django Unchained, but I really don't give a shit about the oscars

I am glad that Daniel Day Lewis is the first actor to win best actor 3 times. Leonardo Dicaprio needs to win some fucking oscars.

Life of Pi was my favourite movie of last year, just such a great story and beautiful cinematography, Argo would of been 2nd to me.

The Academy sure loves films that kiss their asses.

They are fantastic movies, don't be hating.

Argo is a fine choice. Terrific film.

I am betting that Ben Affleck will win best director very soon.

Argo fuck yourself!!! I really loved Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. Glad Argo won. I read Life of Pi and didn't really enjoy it. Might have to check out the movie after all the awards it got.

We are wizards.

I'm glad Argo won, but really, what a great year for films.

Still preferred Lincoln to Argo but Argo is excellent. But Sally Field was robbed of Best Supporting Actress.

EDIT: Post #4500, yay.

How many of those votes for Argo were cast after the winner was announced? :P

Um, what's this about OnionJokeGate2013? Was their twitter hacked?

@boocreepyfootdoctor: They made a joke about the Nine year old girl who got nominated. They thought she was acting like a "cunt" They quickly deleted the tweet.

The percentage of people that voted for Argo has gone up since it was announced as the winner. Really guys? REALLY?