@mrfluke: That's the perfect GIF...MS isn't even flinching at all from all those Sony punches.

To the original point of the thread...the Xbox isn't going anywhere. It may not wind up with the clear dominance it had this gen, but it's a pretty amazing box and I think a lot of people are going to invest in one, more than enough to get it to the next, next gen.

Microsoft just needs make a dozen super-awesome exclusives that are mindblowing and revolutionary, and people will come crawling back to the XB.

Thinking it'll be dead in 2 years is just silly, especially for a company as big as Microsoft. Just look at Windows Phone. It's been on the market for over 2 years and has seen very little traction yet they continue with it because it's an important market worth a lot of money. The same with gaming. I don't even think the majority of people will even care outside of Sony fans or people that care about consumer rights about any of the DRM stuff. Just look at the popularity of iTunes. They used to sell songs that had DRM and could only be used on Apple products but no one cared. Xbox is also a massive brand now. It has a following that people just aren't suddenly going to give up. There are people out there that actively hate Microsoft products such as Windows but love the Xbox. I even met someone recently who wouldn't even touch a PS3 controller his love for Xbox and Halo was so deep(I'm legit serious on that one).

Like I said, the CoD crowd that doesn't care about their rights and the ones that NEED those map packs day 1 will buy the Xbone. The super Halo fans will get an Xbone also, if not at launch, probably when that new Halo drops or an Xbone price drop. But if we, the people of the internet, enjoy CoD and have friends that love CoD and convince them to go the PS4 route, maybe that will change.

I know Sony has way more exclusives then Microsoft. Hell, Sony has 25 MORE exclusives up their sleeves (confirmed by Jack Tretton). But what does it say when at least 4 of their PS3 exclusives can't even outsell 1 of X360's? As I said though, I think Sony will lead and if it happens, people will leave the Xbone in the dust if everyone and their mama has a PS4. Currently, the PS4 is outpacing the X360 in pre-orders, Sony has updated their PS4 sales forecast and developers are loving the PS4 more then the Xbone.

It could go either way:

1. Xbone has trouble like the PS3 while Sony dominates BUT won't catch up in sales like the PS3 did this past year in 5 years.
2. Xbone does well enough with Sony having a bit of a lead.
3. Xbone being a complete train wreck after a year in MS POV.

But like I said, who knows? I'm no analyst.

Microsoft is too large of a corporation to let it die, but I think that if things go really wrong during sales of the console, it could mean that they will give up in making a next, next gen console and focus on selling their games as third party games, just like Sega. I think it was barely two or three years ago that Microsoft finally made a profit by selling the 360s. I have no idea how they believe that they're going to make a profit on this new console when there are so many restrictions regionally and with the games themselves.

@mrcraggle: Yeah, MS will run it through the generation and make a decision on another box based on their results. Whether they make a new system that learns from all these terrible mistakes, or they drop the Xbox like they did Zune in favor of another multimedia push remains to see. Hell, MS could re-position the Xbox One as a replacement for your cable box if they can get in good with cable companies, which would help ease the pain of the almost inevitable loss of the gamer market.

@awesomeusername: Well, part of the PS3 exclusives not selling as well as the Xbox 360 exclusives is simply there being more 360s, at least in the US. MS had a huge advantage this generation that they're mostly surrendering this time, so whether that holds true this time... I'm not entirely sure.

While PS4 is certainly winning over the hearts and minds of a lot of the entusiasts right now, I think you might be overestimating the impact of some of the changes that MS is making. I definitely wouldn't be surprised to see MS lose ground to Sony in western markets. In fact, I'd actually be pretty stunned if that didn't happen, but I really can't envision things going so poorly for MS that they simply bow out of console gaming.

While a significant portion of the 360 install base may have never taken their console online, how many games are those people actually playing? I'd speculate that it isn't nearly as many as those users that have their console online. Also, in recent years video games have increasingly become dependent on connectivity to maximize the experience (patches, DLC, multiplayer, etc.), and if this E3 is any indication, it looks like next gen titles are going to rely even more on that online element (Examples: Tom Clancy's The Division, The Crew, Need for Speed Rivals). It's possible gamers might reject this new direction for games, but if they do, I think that could cause issues for more than just Microsoft.

Regardless of how things shake out, it's definitely going to be interesting to watch how the video game landscape changes over the course of the next few years.

I'm not 100% certain but I think in 2 years the Xbone will be stronger. People will adapt to changes, voice control and using the sensor control could become the norm.

The XBOX 360 came out at the end of 2005, look how much things have changed since then. The TV my parents bought in 2005 isn't even good enough to kept in a spare room, the phone I got in 2006 is a brick now, the laptop I owned in 2006 isn't fit to slice up fruit on.

Also the Xbone will have 4k polyg0nz (I'm not very tech savvy, sorry lol) so that is a boost for future gaming as I don't think PS4 have that capablity.

So many are writing off Xbone because it doesn't feel right in our modern day environment, but there's a possibility things will change to the extent that Xbone is the standard.

Feel free to correct me though

edit: for those talking about exclusives, you do realise MS can't afford to just keep buying exclusives forever right? Buying out a few average games isn't going to help significantly enough at this point in time IMO

Im just glad we got past the 3D T.V crap.

Are you getting a X1?

@the_laughing_man: I do have an Xbox One preordered. The bottom line is that I want to play Forza 5 and Dead Rising 3, and I'm willing to put up with any inconvenience that may come with it. Maybe I'm making a huge mistake, but I won't be too bothered if it ends up just becoming an unused black box in my TV cabinet in a few years.

I also have a PS4 preordered, but I've been thinking about canceling it and waiting until inFamous: Second Son is released.

Right now, it all comes down to just exclusives. Time will tell if one becomes a drastically better platform for playing third party titles (although, I'm inclined to say that the PS4 could based on what it has under the hood).

Microsoft continued to work on the Zune despite being continually destroyed in sales by the iPod for 5 years. Even if your hypothetical scenario occured they would at least push the Xone for more than 2 years.

Oh and also, not that I want anyone to lose their jobs, but if I could finally buy console games for as cheap as steam offers on PS4 and Xone I would be totally fine with used game retailers ending their shitty trade in values. It might actually allow the smaller guys to focus on genuine old games instead of charging people $55 dollars instead of $60 because the seal was broken on this copy of Madden 25.

@vinny_says: Sorry Vinny, but not everyone is on the West Coast, so yeah, I'd personally hate that. A few stupid people selling essentially new games for nothing isn't enough motivation to give up the right to lend games to my brother.

If anything the Xbox One will only get better in time because more people will join the future and get a decent internet connection.

I don't get this "join the future" thing. The Playstation 4 has confirmed that all releases will be available online on the day of release. The only difference is that it doesn't check that you're still connected every 24 hours. The PS4 is as much of a "future" console, but doesn't restrict your options.

Microsoft will probably still run North America, but Sony is going to dominate everywhere else. The way things seem to be going, we are probably looking at the inverse of the last generation, with the Xbox One stumbling out of the gate hard like the PS3 but eventually finding it's footing in a few years.

I think "less bad" would be more apt here.

The biggest reason to get a xbone isn't even a launch game. I was surprised to learn that Titan Fall is coming out next year.

We should all probably wait until it is actually available for purchase and people had hands on time with it before we say it's a bad system. I had recently dusted off my PS3 to play The Last of Us and was instantly reminded how bad everything about the PSN and XMB is.

When the PS3 launched it was $600, it was missing such basic features like controller vibration and it's online infrastructure was almost non existent not to mention the lengthy installs and constant updates. By todays standards of judging consoles the PS3 should have been dead within a year - but it wasn't and it's doing just fine up until today.

One really important thing I think people are forgetting about all this connected internet stuff is that this console will have wireless conectivity built in. The reason lots of people haven't got their consoles connected to the internet this generation is that they are not interested in multiplayer or whatever and aren't prepared to be ripped of for one of Microsoft's dongles or go to the hassle of wiring it in when all they want to do is play single player halo or whatever.

This will all change when the wireless is built in as it will mean anyone with internet will be connected. There aren't that many people buying consoles without internet in this day and age - I really don't see this hurting MS much.

can't wait to see who takes M$'s spot in the console wars....

I also see it like this..... If MS fails, even if they probably had it coming to them, it'll suck. Xbox was a great console.... But this might all end up being the thing that keeps Nintendo alive. AND, I hope to god we can all agree that Nintendo should never die and should continue to be a thing. IT's the only gaming console made by a completely gaming company. You might not like their current console but they should continue to be a boss. They shouldn't receive the Sega card imo.

@9cupsoftea said:

1. A lot of people couldn't buy and use one even if they wanted to

Even before you get to consumer choices, brand loyalties, exclusive games, or preference, a big portion of gamers aren't even able to use xbone. By current figures (which seem quite rough) 76 million xboxes have been sold, but there just over 45 million xbox live users - just under half the people who own 360s have NEVER connected their consoles online. That's before you factor in people with multiple accounts, family members/housemates on the same xbox. It's likely the figure is closer to 50%, perhaps over that.

Even if you try to spin it positively and say that half of those users could be forced to connect online if they wished, then that still makes nearly 20% 360 owners who will never be able to use an xbone no matter how desperately they'd like to.

On top of that, many countries at launch (including places like Poland, Portugal, the Ukraine, and most of South America) won't support the online checking system required to play. This probably accounts for a small percentage of 360 users (I can't find clear figures), but when you consider military personnel in foreign bases, imported systems, or those who move countries a lot (like me) the number of people locked out increases. Some of these countries will be supported at later dates no doubt, but it may be too late by then.

Do MS think that TV watchers and skypers will fill in for the gamers unable to use the xbone? Or do they expect fewer people to pay more for the services of the xbone? I doubt they will. And where can there be growth? Any person in any country is a potential PS4 customer, but only a segment of people in a minority of countries are potential xbone buyers.

I could sit here for days a dismantle this post, but let's just focus on this point right here, since it pretty much unravels this silly jag. Those numbers are all accurate.... In 2013. Broadband penetration goes up, it doesn't remain stagnant from here on out, nor goes down. You say this now, but it took Microsoft 7 years to accumulate those 76 million sales. If you halve that, it's 38 million over 3.5 years. By 2017, if the Xbone sells as many units as the 360 did over the same time frame, it still wont even have reached it's original Xbox 360 Live subscriber base. And where do you think Broadband penetration will look in 2017? Better, worse, or the same?

By the time Microsoft has satiated that original userbase, Broadband will likely be nearly ubiqious in places where buying a $200-$400 console is viable. And at that point, all bets are off. If the Xbone has a game they want, all that other stuff isn't going to matter. People will buy any and all consoles if they have a game they want to play. Broadband will be an issue, but not for very long. What the console can do at launch is not the end all and be all. This has always been the case.

What happened to the OP?

And yes the X1 will sell fine. It is fully sold out in my area after nearly 2 waves have come in for ore orders. Same with the PS4.

Well, you can still lend a game through the shared family system and you don't even need to give him the disc. You can just add him as part of your family share group and then on his console he can just access your shared library without having the need of a disc. Also I don't think it's just limited to your console, he could be doing it on his separate console. Also from what I read you can add or remove people from the shared list since it does have a 10 person limit.

EDIT: Also family system isn't limited to relatives BTW. It could be your room mate or neighbor, etc.

Like I posted in another thread - when the PS3 launched it cost $600 and only really played games - $200 more dollars than the PS4 and it offered maybe a tenth of the content. Their controllers didn't have vibration because of the patent case they were involved with at the time. Their online infrastructure was almost non existent. They had no trophies, no cross-game chat and a lot of their first party games had hilariously long install times. It was also a huge ugly black thing that weigh a ton but thats subjective to everyone.

If despite all this the PS3 is doing just fine today then the XBO won't do any worse.

@humanity: Ign reports for every 2 X1 per orders there is 3 PS4 orders. So again it's still a close race.

@the_laughing_man: Oh I have no doubt that at this point in time the PS4 is probably selling better than the XBO - I was merely saying that it's not going anywhere and will hardly "die" anytime soon because some people teens on the internet are upset about it.

@humanity: also forgot that twitch tv is more popular with the COD and fighting game crowds. So that will win that group over.

I just wish Titan Fall would get here soon.

Nah it's not going anywhere. Neither of these consoles will. They'll either both be around or neither if this console crash comes that people are talking about. Even if it sells really poorly MS will change policies/price to make it more attractive, they've put too much money and had too much success with their video game division to just say "ah screw it, shut it down". I would bet the console is gonna sell a bunch.

@candycowman: If you're talking 4K resolution, this article is worth a look. It argues that 4K gaming is simply too taxing for the hardware and that the benefit isn't enough for most people to notice. I've seen that sentiment echoed elsewhere, and I'd imagine it's why Sony believes the PS4 won't need it. I'm not tech-savvy either though, so I can't personally confirm. I believe the unified memory is supposed to be PS4's future-proofing? Both AMD and Nvidia are pushing it for PCs as well, I think.

This worst it could possibly fail would be on the level of the N64 as a "failure" when compared to the Playstation 1. Great games throughout its entire lifecycle, just getting outsold worldwide by a significant margin.

Microsoft's hedging a big bet here that can go either way. Surely... surely someone saw those same numbers you presented, which I presented myself in an article months ago when rumors were swirling about all of this. If they did, then this has to be in their plan, and they have to be ready for not-so-spectacular sales numbers in the early years of this generation. If a subsidized box is in the works, that could be a nice little buffer for them, but the numbers are still way out of their favor. If someone didn't look at the numbers and figure out they needed a plan, then yeah, I personally believe the company deserves to fail, because that's downright foolish.

If they have a plan in place, a good 3-4 year plan at least, then they might be doing something smart. I don't know the statistics, but in 3-4 years, surely Internet availability and quality should increase, as well as the price of the console going down with a growing library. If they're truly looking towards a "console-based Steam," then turning their backs, figuratively speaking, on the used game market could still benefit the consumers because sales and price drops would be better deals than the used game market.

Having said all that, I go back to my original point. It's a big bet and a slippery slope. My decision is already made on a PS4 this Christmas, but I'm not downright demonizing the Xbox One just yet. I think this Holiday will definitely be the PS4's to win (although let's be realistic, they'll probably both sell out. It's been a long time since we got true next-gen consoles,) but if Microsoft's strategy is long-term enough, they could come out ahead and usher in an interesting future for the Industry that could benefit us as much as them.

We'll see.

@dfsvegas: Ok there will be more broadband penetration, but I think you're overestimating just how quickly it happens. I did a quick google and came up with a ton of figures. I'm just playing amateur statistician here, so I could be wrong. If I've interpreted these numbers wrong please call me out on it.

Check out some of these pretty thorough numbers from OECD figures: In the US, in the five years between 2002 and 2007 penetration rose dramatically from 5% to roughly 23%, but in the five years from 2007 to 2012 it only rose to 28% - even plateauing and going down in some years. In Canada it hit 29% in 2008 and hovered around there to reach 31% in 2012. In the UK it hit 28% in 2008 and rose by about 1% a year to reach 33%. Everywhere else is the same story, by 2008 you see penetration rates slowing down and only increasing by 1 or 2% each year.

If you look at countries with higher penetration rates, they slow down dramatically as they near 30% and then plateau. The only places that have dramatic increases in broadband penetration are places like Poland, Chile, and Eastern Europe - precisely the kind of places which aren't supported by the xbone at launch.

So only 5% greater broadband penetration in the US since the 360 was launched, and likely a smaller increase by 2017. That's nowhere near enough to account for the massive amount that never connected online with the 360. Though I'll concede not putting a wifi dongle in with the first 360s probably had a big impact on it last gen also.

Wow, this is stupid. Xbox One will be around for at least 6-7 years. It will then be replaced with a new Xbox.

@pweidman: Doesnt matter how popular a previus system is if you fuck up on next one. ps2 huge massive fanbase then came ps3 and failed atleast in the first years. Dont think ppl are as brand loyal as you think

ps: im not saying xbone will die it will most probably just be cattering to diffirent market bros familys and probably some gamers as well, but ps4 will probably be the leading console for third parties well thats my guess atleast

That's true, but if speculation is off the cards, then I don't see the point in discussion at all.

I'll admit that it's entirely subjective on whether you think it looks bad or good, but the idea that somehow people who dislike Xbox One's restrictions are hesitant to join the future is ill-informed. As someone who is always-online, has high-speed connection, rarely buys used games and generally buys 90% digital, I just don't feel that Microsoft has given me any good reason as to why their future is better than the present. The fact that I travel certainly doesn't help my scenario, but it shouldn't have to. Every single other digital library I own travels with me; why shouldn't theirs?

Family plan is interesting and possibly the only thing that can even try to justify the vast restrictions, but it has only been vaguely confirmed to work the way we hope it works. If they can't explain it properly in two press conferences and multiple one-on-one interviews, then I can only assume that the end result will be less than impressive.

@mandude: how does your library not follow you with the xboxone? All you need to do is log in and down load.

The X-ONE will be this generation's PS3 in North America.

It won't die. There are still plenty of people that want it. Hell, it may even come out in first this generation. But, I could just as easily see the PS4 coming out in first, even in America. My armchair guesstimations say that a good number of parents and no small number of Average Joes are going to raise an eyebrow at a console that costs more and requires internet.

@the_laughing_man: Not for those of us who don't want to pay for internet packages when we're abroad.

TOO BIG TO FAIL

@mandude: you do not need gold to play games. An all you need is a wireless single.

@the_laughing_man: And what do I do if I can't get a wireless signal without paying for one?

@mandude: most hotels have wireless. And most places have a rogue unproved wireless network. Or a place to plug in a either net calbw

I follow a lot of telecom politics. At least here in US you can blame the curbing of broadband penetration on the rise of smart phones. Less public subsidies started going to expanding broadband and more started going to increasing infrastructure for smart phone boom.

All it takes is congress changing it's mind & your predictions of the future are all a wash. Which very well could be the case, all it takes is a concerted lobbying effort.

@the_laughing_man: I don't use hotels. I know that it can be easy to get a connection (depending on where you are, and even then, only sometimes). What I don't know is why I should be forced to do it in the first place.

@9cupsoftea:

Percentages are tricky...how about some hard numbers, eh? As of 2010, the US had 114. 8 million households. If 30% of those have broadband capability, we're talking about 34.4 million households in the US alone with the potential to run the Xbox One. By all accounts, as of the fall of 2012, 70 million Xbox 360 units had sold total worldwide. Frankly speaking, if you don't fall into these demographics, chances are, you also don't fit in the demographic that can afford a $500 (or $400) gaming console. The Internet issue is a non-starter in all of this - there is a large enough consumer base worldwide that does have access to broadband (and these same people are usually in a stronger position economically to afford one) that MS (and I think any rational person) decided that implementing such a strategy would not affect their target market negatively enough to warrant consideration.

It may be an unpopular decision, and it may leave some folks in the cold, but, based on the numbers alone, I'm not sure how you could fault them if they thought this is where tech is going.

The PS3 ended up selling 20 million here. Unless MS changes direction quick, I don't see that happening for the Xbone. It might end up being the Saturn, only without Japan to fall back on.

See, that's the thing. A company could theoretically make it so you have to give a blood sample every day for the console to function, but what is the obvious benefit to the user? There is none, just like Xbone's DRM.

He'd have to check in online EVERY HOUR, which is far more restrictive than my just giving him a PS4 disc and telling him to return it next week.