I am re-reading Red Storm Rising. Lets just get this out of teh way, Tom Clancy loved to make his military, FBI, CIA, and cop porn; his view of the world is always about American exceptionalism and certitude America is smart and honest which -of course- is stupid.
However the book was very prescient about why Russian (at that time the Soviet Union) would go to war. He nailed all the paranoid reasons why, all issue they would have, and all the reason why they would be over matched against western weapons. If Russia had a playbook for invading Ukraine in 2022 it seems liek it was lifted from Red Storm Rising.
RSR [Book Synopsis]
Poor economic oversight and planning (graft) cripple the Soviet Union's economy. After much deliberation, the Soviet Politburo decides to seize something economically worthwhile like oil…but it could have been anything grain, a port, or...a country they wanted. Knowing that the United States had pledged to defend the world like 'world police', the Soviets decide that neutralizing NATO is a necessary first step before its military operation can take place. To divert attention from the impending operation, the Politburo embarks upon an elaborate maskirovka to disguise both their predicament and their intentions [Does this sound familiar???]. The KGB then carries out a false flag operation that makes it look like western interference. [Again, do modern Russians just use Tom’s playbook for planning? In 2022 Russia went through Belarus to pretend it was that country attacking, they used their own forces to do false flag attacks back across the boarder into Belarus to make ist look like Ukrainians striated it....] The Politburo publicly denounces the West German government and calls for retaliation. The Soviets figure with West Germany neutralized and occupied, the United States would not move to rescue anyone else. Yadda, yadda yadda….it ends up the Russians are low on petroleum and fear famine if their farm industry shut down, so they have a tight time table to win. NATO is slow off the start and lose ground quickly in West Germany and Northern Europe. The key for NATO is attacking supply lines, and over time a Russian high ranking Generals get killed. [Again, this is how Ukraine is winning against Russia now] Lot’s of saber rattling and fear of nukes is mounted by the Soviets. when they start losing The end of the story is a Russian top general takes part in a coup d'etat, arresting the government ministers and establishing a troika to temporarily preside over the country. The new Soviet government then negotiates for a ceasefire with NATO to return to pre-war borders, effectively ending the conflict.
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