It easy and fairly effective to compare the gaming industry with that of the 1990's comic industry. Both have the same demographic, both have the almost identical rabid following and both have had surges due to "non core demographic" interest. The reason this is useful is because the comic industry is all but done for and limps on feeding off of game and movie adaptions to legitimize their existence. Now if you ask a game industry insider if video games could go the way of the comic book they would scoff at you and explain how the two industries are completely different. Much in the same way that all industries scoff at the possibility of there end days.
The facts are that the gaming industry are following in the exact footsteps of their predecessor and have already begun their downward spiral.
Exhibit A: During the 90's limited edition embossed covers where all the rage and seemed harmless enough. The problem is you get a lot of collectors of embossed covers and no fans. So when they realize the comic is worthless because this "limited" edition actually sold 200,000 issues, they move on to something else. Games have in the past few years been taking an alternate yet similar route to destruction. Limited and collectors editions selling for $20 more seems like a fine idea, but psychologically the consumer feels forced into purchasing the "better" edition only to find there is little to no benefit in doing so. This is also true for the reissue of handhelds every year.
Exhibit B: Currupt, and or unprofessional journalism played a very important roll in the demise of the comic industry. Many fans and collectors looked towards the comic industry journalists to give them a clear view of what was really happening with their favorite comic only to be led to the slaughter. This was never more true then with the Death Of Superman. This event was actually the most influential event in the collapse of the comic industry ,but to this day has gone unnoticed. Basically what happened was that DC Comics announced they where killing Superman off, which was fair enough. This caused everyone and their grandmother to rush to the comic stores to obtain their piece of history. Long before the issue was released it was obvious to anyone remotely into the industry that this was not a permanent death. There for it meant nothing. First off, not a single Superman series stopped production. How can you have a Superman comic with no Superman? Second, super heroes die all the time, but they always come back,so why would this be different? Every comic journalist realized this was a scam, yet decided to just go along for the ride. The result is that the comic everyone thought would be worth hundreds is now barely worth the paper it was printed on, and millions of readers realized that nothing matters. Readers ship confidence was dramatically weakened, but unfortunately no one noticed until Batman temporarily broke his back, Xavier temporarily died, The X-men were temporarily reinvented 4 or 5 times before going back to normal, and Spider-man became a clone of himself. Despite all of this change, not a single one of them held on longer then a year or two, in fact the only thing it did change was the amount of people reading comics. They went from print runs of hundreds of thousands to under one hundred thousand in a 5 year span. The gaming industry is as bad if not worse off then the comic industry when it comes to proper coverage, mainly when a specific consoles is involved. It's bad enough that game coverage is little more then advertisements, it's worse when they print a companies press releases as facts with no follow up. Whether it's the red ring of death, the actual power or lack of in the PS3, or Nintendo's questionable business practices, we are left to fend for ourselves. Occasionally they'll pat themselves on the back for saying Two Worlds wasn't the best game ever or that the Xbox 360 has a couple of design flaws ,but all in all gaming journalists are paid to sell you more games, and unfortunately this is the exact thing that can cause a collapse of consumer trust in an industry.
Exhibit C: This is actually the bread and butter of the collapse of any industry and shows the lack of intelligence behind all industry. It all begins with a surge in sales. The industry, what ever it may be, misinterprets this "surge" as growth. The difference is very important. Growth is a steady increase in sales which eventually peaks ,yet stays relatively healthy. A surge is a different beast altogether. It explodes very rapidly over a 3 or 4 year period and then quickly drops to a normalized position. The danger is that if you prepare for growth during a surge like the comic industry in the 90's or the gaming industry in the past 5 years, you are betting every thing on continued expansion. If you do so and the industry suddenly normalizes you find your self bankrupt in a fairly descent market, because you borrowed and spent money based on estimated growth, and not on what you actually had. You bet on an inflated market, not a normal one. Marvel comics made the same bet when they bought TOPPS trading card company. About that same time the market slowed in both non-sport trading cards and comics and Marvel went Bankrupt in 1999, following the largest surge in entertainment ever scene. So where did all the money go? They spent all of it, betting they would make more. Was it their fault? Yes, because they where stupid. There are people paid hundreds of thousands of dollars a year to know the difference between a surge and growth, and they are wrong every time. You see children, the trick is knowing that there is no such thing as growth in the entertainment industry. Eventually only the strongest and smartest survive. Ubisoft is a prime example of slow and steady. EA and Activision are a prime example of jackass'.
Now, I realize that this could go on for ever ,but the rest is up to your imagination to figure out. Will Nintendo's casual gamers leave them high and dry? Probably. Will the entire industry fall......no doubt.
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