Since Series X|S and PS5 are perpetually sold out could Xbox be ahead

We really don’t have a gauge on Xbox numbers. Maybe stock-X and the price could be an indicator of desperation than true demand. Since XBox had more skus and special edition in place from the Xbox one generation (so more and regular manufacturing partnerships/deals in the hoppers from Cyberpunk editions etc), a smaller and cheaper box in series S, less parts than PS5 (them wings), made more and sooner announcements about launch while covid was roiling than PS5 which exudes manufacturing confidence, 7.5 billion buying theoretical future profit and they probably spent a lot securing manufacturing and current profit, and they don’t have to worry about new controllers and other accessories. Hot take #647. Xbox is ahead this generation. They don’t announce numbers.

Obviously we don’t know for sure, but it seems like industry analysts estimate that there was about 1 million fewer Xbox Series X|S consoles sold than PS5s.

https://mspoweruser.com/xbox-series-xs-consoles-2020-sales-numbers/

Makes sense when considering news last year indicating that Microsoft started production later than Sony to wait for some AMD chip revision that they are banking on putting them ahead power-wise, specifically with respect to DLSS:

https://m.gsmarena.com/microsoft_delayed_production_of_the_xbox_series_x_and_s_consoles_to_get_the_full_rdna_2_feature_set-news-46450.php

At this current stage it’s all about production bottlenecks, and sales right now don’t really indicate who is doing “better”. I’d imagine we’ll have a better idea this time next year.

Better question - why does it matter?

@therealturk: so for US households the ratio could be 1:1 since Xbox doesn’t have the global dilution that Sony has. It matters because I want to get the console that my local Blockbuster is going to stock more games for. There’s a lot that Xbox can do to keep them on par with Sony in the US and ultimately beat them. For Hollywood Video and Pharmor rental concerns of course.

@senorsucks2suck: I hardly think that matters. Even last gen when Sony outsold Xbox 2:1, availability of Xbox games on North American store shelves was abundant. Heck, even when the PS2 outsold Xbox 5:1 I had no issue getting Xbox games in stores.

And where do you live that Blockbuster and Hollywood Video exist and have consoles for rent?

@navster15: there is 1 Blockbuster left open in Oregon. lol

@senorsucks2suck: Wow! There are multiple brick and mortar video stores in your town renting out physical games?!

With respect to the original post, I really don't think it matters much at this point. The demand is still far ahead of supply for both platforms, so it's very tough to say where things will end up when the supply catches up.

@chaser324: most importantly the shady deals for times exclusives are less likely if console sales March in step. From demand reasons alone they schism that happened with PS4 and Xbox one may never materialize. Imagine a series S box that is a special edition elders scroll and the words exclusive. Man Xbox is in this fight no matter what.

I wasn't planning on buying either Xbox, but my local retailer had the Series S in stock on release day so I ended up getting one after skipping the One generation. As a retro gamer with a big Xbox 360 and indie library on my account, I've been really happy with it. But my issue with the Series S is that it doesn't feel next generation at all, it is actually less powerful than the One X (Red Dead Redemption for example runs in 4K on One X but not on Series S). It's basically an Xbox One modded with an SSD. And I'm absolutely fine with that since there are no notable next-gen exclusives yet and I have a lot of games to catch up on and indulge in nostalgia with. But my point kind of is that it's not really a fair comparison to the PS5, and if it turns out that the Series S is outselling the Series X on something like a 10-to-1 scale I think that could be a problem for Microsoft as well when developers would have very little incentive to take advantage of the better horsepower. Could also mean that if someone is developing for the PS5, they wouldn't even bother with the Xbox port because they would have to compromise too much to get the game working on the Series S.

I strongly suspect that if/when Xbox outsells PS5, Microsoft is all of a sudden going to reverse their "numbers don't matter" policy, and it'll be Sony that'll claim actual console sales don't matter.

In other words, there's no need to speculate -- we'll know if/when the inflection point comes.

Besides, console sales isn't the fight anymore, based on current trends. Microsoft and Sony are going different ways, with Microsoft going all-in on services, while Sony is continuing it's traditional hardware route. I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last "pure" Xbox generation -- that the Xbox of the late 2020s is actually some sort of Surface laptop / gaming hybrid, if they continue to attach the Xbox name to hardware at all. Game Pass is where the future is for Microsoft, as bad as that is for developers and consumers in the long run (but that's a different rant.)

But if you want Hot Take, no real evidence, predictions, here's one: By the latter half of the 2020s, Microsoft and Sony work out a revenue sharing deal where Microsoft Game Pass is available on the Sony Playstation, and Sony gives up on exclusive first-party game development altogether to focus on hardware development.

Current gen consoles being sold out has almost nothing to do with demand and almost everything to do with the worldwide microprocessor shortage affecting far more industries than just consoles. There's no conclusions about sales to draw here.

@apewins: I don't think this is accurate. Not whether or not the Series S "feels" next gen (that's subjective, and as the owner of a PS5 and an Xbox Series X I don't really think either of them "feel" that next gen either) but the idea that the Series S is "just" an Xbox One X with an SSD. It's true that the Series S is less powerful than the One X in certain ways, but it is optimized to run scaled down versions of Series X games at 1080p. That's where it's intended to shine. It has a much ore advanced chipset than the One X in many ways, even if it's not necessarily stronger in raw horsepower, and as games are designed to take advantage of those extra features and the SSD it will outperform the One X. Red Dead Redemption 2 is an Xbox One game optimized for the One X and running in backward compatibility on the One S so it's not surprising that it runs better on the One X. It doesn't take advantage of the Series S strengths.

Also Phil Spencer said that he expected the Series X to outsell the Series S at launch so I assume there are more Xs being made now than Ss (though I don't know) and it certainly doesn't seem like the S is more common than the X. And even if the S was dominant, if it's a large enough platform developers will support it. We are seeing Switch ports for that reason. And there's no reason to think the Series X won't sell enough to at least get ports of PS5 games. The architecture of the two consoles is so similar that the install base would have to be very tiny for it to not to be worth it. This is not PS3 and 360. Porting stuff between PS5 and Xbox Series is much easier, and therefore more likely even if that stuff can only run on the Series X and there aren't a lot of them.

@turtlefish: Things would have to change radically for Sony to give up on software development. Not only does that drive the sales of PlayStations but they make a lot of money on software and they have a ton developed in studios and IP. What would they do with all those investments if they weren't still making first party games? We are already seeing some of those games move to PC, so that might continue (thus ending 'exclusivity' as a concept) but give up on development altogether? Why? It's one of their strengths.

I also think that a partnership like that between Microsoft and Sony doesn't seem that likely. Microsoft is much closer to Nintendo and I think Game Pass on Super Switch U is more likely than on PS6.

@senorsucks2suck: So you're trying say is that you're concerned with the numbers because you want the console where local rental shops will stock the most games for? I wouldn't worry about: they'll have plenty of games for you to play on any console.

@ghost_cat: What about the popularity of Game Pass? It seems to me that my local Blockbuster may be less likely to carry Xbox games because people who want to rent many of those games can just get a Game Pass subscription.

Is Blockbuster even going to stock the hot new Xbox exclusives when they're day and date on Game Pass? If so, how many copies?

Everyone worried that Netflix would kill Blockbuster but it doesn't seem like there are the same concerns about Game Pass.

@bigsocrates: I don't know, I and most people don't live near a rental store that carries games for rent. I don't see why they wouldn't though, because a rental store still standing probably knows why they're still standing in the digital online age: carrying products and services for the local demand.

Regardless, there are plenty of options to play or obtain games now, so it's not a big loss of the local rental store doesn't carry a game you want.

@ghost_cat: I think the whole rental store discussion, from the beginning, is tongue in cheek. There are virtually no rental stores left, and those that do still exist are specialty shops that generally do not focus on new releases anyway. Even Redbox gave up on video games a long time ago.

Rental is not an actual consideration.

A more realistic consideration is whether the most popular system will get a bunch of system exclusives or semi-exclusives. There are an absolute ton of games not made by Sony that came to PS4 and not to Xbox. Those include some absolute bangers like Ys VIII and Danganronpa. Part of that was due to PS4 being more popular but part of it is that some Japanese developers are still very Japan focused, and there's a self-fulfilling prophecy belief that Xbox gamers don't like these kinds of Japanese games anyway.

So that's a consideration, but since Xbox will never do much in Japan chances are those games will end up on PS5 and Switch anyway even if Xbox was in the lead (which is possible because the Japanese market is small at this point and it's not impossible that Xbox could win North America and do well in Europe.)

It doesn't really matter at this point. While I do enjoy my PS5, I'm mostly playing PS4 games on it with only a few PS5 games. The main benefit is that the games run and look better. In terms of who is selling out more consoles and who is winning won't be determined until the next console generation really gets going, which it hasn't yet. 90 percent of the next-gen games that was supposed to come out this year got delayed until 2022. There is still a long way to go before see any real power being used with these new consoles.

Microsoft does seem to have the ball in their court so far with game pass, and Sony seems to be making a lot of mistakes with 70 dollar exclusive charges, their slow updates, and the many other issues that keep coming up. Like the latest about PS4 games having a possible time limit before they stop working all together. It seems like the gaming industry is going downhill and the future doesn't look promising.

@bigsocrates: Speaking anecdotally, I check my local retailer in Europe almost every week in case via some miracle they might have a PS5, not surprisingly they have never had one available, sometimes they take preorders, sometimes not even that. Same thing with the Series X. But at the same time I can see that the Series S has never not been in stock since launch, their tracker says that they have "more than 5" available so who knows how many they actually have. I'm not sure if it's the same in the States but I could go out right now and buy more than 10 Series S's today and not have to fight for them. And given the situation where people are starved for entertainment, I am assuming that the Series S is also selling well. Strangely even the PS4 seems to be out of stock in most places despite not even having had any price drop since the PS5 "launched".

By the way, I saw specifically speaking about Red Dead Redemption, the Xbox 360 game on backwards compatibility. This Polygon article confirms that the Series S won't have the same enhancements as the Xbox One X:

Since the debut of the Xbox One X in late 2017, Microsoft has delivered Xbox One X enhancements for nearly 70 Xbox 360 and original Xbox games. These titles look and play better on an Xbox One X than they do on an Xbox One S (or launch-model Xbox One) — the enhancements include higher-quality anti-aliasing, increased texture detail, and nine times the resolution (4K versus 720p).

However, the Xbox Series S won’t support those enhancements, Microsoft confirmed recently. Instead, the company said in a statement to VGC on Friday, “the Xbox Series S runs the Xbox One S version of backward compatible games while applying improved texture filtering, higher and more consistent frame rates, faster load times and Auto HDR.”

Both companies will be able to produce numbers that generate a positive image of their position. Xbox will probably have a larger audience with their ability to sell to PC gamers. Their gamepass MAU will probably slap Playstation Now silly. On the other hand, Sony will probably sell more consoles in the next 5 years, and probably generate more revenue on each sold game. At the same time, i imagine the gaming market at large will have grown quite a bit as well and that both companies can look back on these years with a smile on their face.

The local blockbuster's forecasts in 5 years might not be so good though.

Not sure why console war bait like this is getting so much engagement. I think the cracks about rental stores make it pretty clear this is not a topic raised in good faith.

@apewins: I don't know where in Europe you are (it's actually kind of a big place!) so it's quite possible that you're in a country with low Xbox penetration, but in the states the Series S is sold out constantly. It's a little easier to find than the Series X, but that's because the hardcore fanatics who will search constantly are more interested in the X, especially if they already have an Xbox One X.

There are many areas of Europe where Xbox has never been a strong brand, and especially not during the Xbox One era (more than twice as many Xbox 360s were sold in Europe as Xbox Ones), and in those places people might by a Series X if they can't get a PS5 but would have less interest in the Series S.

The Red Dead Redemption thing makes perfect sense and matches up with what I said, because the Xbox One X backwards compatibility enhancements are designed for...the Xbox One X. The Series S has different strengths and weaknesses. So for example the Xbox One X has 12 gigabytes of RAM, but they're slower than the Series S's 10 gigabytes of RAM. If the Xbox One X 360 emulator version uses all 12 gigabytes it wouldn't work on the Series S, even though if the emulator were re-coded to take advantage of the faster RAM and SSD you might get equivalent or better performance. But they're not going to do that work because the Series S isn't even designed for people who want to run stuff in 4K, so if the 1080p performance of the Xbox One S emulator is fine, why rewrite the emulator for the vanishingly small number of people who own a Series S and care about 4K performance?

Games that take advantage of the faster RAM, ray tracing capabilities, and SSD of the Series S can outperform the Xbox One X, but older games running in backwards compatibility simply don't use those features.

@ll_exile_ll: We like fourthline's threads around these parts :)

@ghost_cat: I’m concerned about getting games for my series-s from blockbuster in a state that is not Oregon.

@senorsucks2suck: There is literally a single Blockbuster left open in the world and it’s in Oregon:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/business/last-blockbuster-store.html

Solved your problem for you. Guess your town’s Blockbuster closed, which I’m sure comes as a shock to you because this is totally a good faith argument you’re making.

@navster15: well I’m keeping this copy of 13 going on 30. Their loss.

I find it hard to believe Series X is selling better or ahead in anyway atm.

If you look at US & UK which are Xbox's biggest markets the PS5 has been charting consistently higher.

Which could sure be the case that Sony's making more boxes, but if you look at the reselling market on eBay etc the PS5 also commanding a higher price over its counterpart.

Sony appears to have higher demand and producing more units too.

And if you look at Amazon's most wished for list in the US & UK both PS5 sku's are ahead of the Series X.

@thepanzini: demand outstrips supply at every turn. It’s like two ATMs side by side spitting out money on 5th Avenue somewhere. There isn’t going to be a bill found anywhere on the ground. If the PS5 atm spits out $100 bills and the Xbox atm spits out $50s (your not my perceived value) it doesn’t matter there won’t be a bill on the ground. The assumption is that both machines spit out money at the same rate. I don’t think that’s the case it’s not like acme videogames slaps a sticker on one for Xbox and then the next for PS5. All things being equal you can pack more XBox Series S|X into a Uhaul truck. And this atm also spits out Susan b Anthony coins (series S). No bills or coins or on the ground. I only care about the Us market kind of like how i don’t care if the Brazilian version of Microsoft Word’s spell check is as potent as the English one. Not my problem. So I think they are neck and neck and the chances of your friend having either console is 50% which is as much of a driver of console purchases as the other reasons. So I really don’t think Sony will get the lead that commands deals like they did in the PS4 era. And also Xbox might be ahead.

@senorsucks2suck: Sony has sold more PS5 atm source, they are not neck and neck. The Series X went into production later than Sony did.

“We started manufacturing late summer. We were a little bit later than the competition, because we were waiting for some specific AMD technology in our chip,” said Spencer.

MS is about 1m units behind source.

and not a single mention of Xbox hardware ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

This thread being about "which console Blockbuster will stock more games for" is one of the weirdest topics I've ever seen. Did American stores stock fewer Xbox One titles when PS4 was way ahead? I have no idea.

You can't gauge the competition at these times since the customers will grab the first next-gen console they can lay their hands on.

Hopefully, we can discuss this better next year as we won't have console shortages.

Both are selling out. Sony are making more ps5 than series consoles.

My guess is that by November 2021 we’ll have a better idea about the both consoles and their hardware numbers. Given the pandemic, the chip shortage and consoles not being supplied quickly enough based on the high demand, we won’t have a super clear picture.

That said given we can look at the following to get a good idea that PlayStation is likely ahead thus far —

- Engagement metrics on social, YouTube etc are higher for PlayStation 5

- Marketing for big games (FIFA and COD)

- Exclusive software in the first year (Demon’s Souls, Miles Morales, Ratchet & Clank: Rift Apart etc — their first year lineup is stronger than PS4)

- Messaging has been clear that you’ll get a fresh new experience with DualSense, 3D Audio, fast SSD speeds etc

- PlayStation is a stronger global brand than Xbox

Sony has been way more prepared for this generation than Microsoft has thus far. I don’t think Microsoft will really start pushing the hardware until this fall with the release of Halo: Infinite.

So, while it’s hard to say where the numbers are, I suspect Sony to be ahead by a 2:1 ratio again for the first few years.

@luminaryghost: I’m confused. Those things you mention seem to be valid metrics if both companies were hiding their numbers with plenty of available units. If you go to the assembly line every box that rolls off the production line translates to a sale in the current environment of scarcity. Having multiple healthy supply chains around the world just means that the Xbox can perfectly deliver enough Xbox’s to meet demand in regions such as Japan. They also can focus a greater percentage of their production output and put boxes in regions they care about like the US and Mexico. Your point makes sense if PlayStation wanted to leverage a position of strength. I don’t think there is one. Scalped boxes sit unsold doing nothing for revenue and the COD and fifa people of the world are not going to wait around for a next gen console when the parity is obvious outside the brand on the box. Sure things may ultimately land at 2:1 but that’s assuming production is 2:1. Show those facts and you might have something. SonyProductuonOutput:XboxProductionOutput is your actual market info.