TLDR, upgrade, don't build new. Even then, you might not have to upgrade at all, depending on how close to the 1080p-60FPS-ultra settings thing you wanna get.
Long version:
As always, bottlenecks are CPU speed and video card quality. It's worth noting that Bethesda's RPG-ish games like Fallout/Elder Scrolls use a very customizable engine, so being above the "minimum" requirements at all basically means you'll be fine. Not "all settings on high/ultra at 1080p" fine, but probably "maintain a solid 40 fps on medium at 1080p" fine. For reference, their "recommended" CPU for AMD is the 9590 (link), which actually requires a liquid cooling system to function. Very few people will meet that recommendation. I guess the point is, you're not as bad off as you think you are.
On the "build a new PC vs upgrade" front, your current CPU indicates that you're on an AM3+ motherboard, which is still modern. My advice is usually that you should only "build new" if you need to replace the motherboard, which you do not.
So, upgrades. You have plenty of RAM. Your CPU could use a boost, and unless you're looking to drop a lot of money into it, I'd look at the FX-8350. The 8370 isn't really that much better from a price/power perspective, and 4.0GHZ is plenty for everything now and for the forseeable future.
Your video card could also use some more power. Any way you go, you should upgrade to at least a 3GB card (~$150), and if you're gonna be putting that level of cash into it, you should probably just go straight to 4GB. Everyone has their preferred brand, but usually MSI/ASUS are solid manufacturers. Basically find a brand you trust, try to hit 4GB, and keep within budget and you should be fine. You can go into minute details and get super serious with it, but in the end doubling the VRAM is what's making the difference here, everything else is just icing. Something like the ASUS R9 380 is 4GB for ~$220, and the MSI R9 390 is 8GB for ~$330. The range of choice here is dependent on budget.
I know most people tend to do Intel and NVIDIA over AMD/ATI these days (for a reason, AMD is definitely the underdog right now.) I don't have any modern experience with them, however, so if someone can comment on pricing/performance for NVIDIA cards or the real-world benefit of switching the CPU/motherboard to an i5 equivalent, absolutely hop in.
In the end, if I were in your position, I'd probably hold off on upgrading and try playing regardless. Put money into it if you have to, but it may not come to that. We'll see how well it's optimized on Tuesday. If you do feel like you need more power, hit the video card first, then the CPU. Let me know if none of this made sense, sort of late over here. I might be incoherent and unaware.
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