I have a feeling that this years E3 will be about the next gen consoles. I have only three pieces of evidence to use. the first is a startling lack of information about what is going to be announced. This has caused many people to think that this will be a really unnecessary E3. There are people all over the internet that have expressed this mentality. Next, There have been many games debuted before E3. The DC fighting game, both Lord of the rings games, Gears of War, another castelvania game. Then there is Nintindo launching itself into the next generation console game, (given this is just them catching up),

What do you all think.

Edit: so far the average opinion is a 7% chance that E3 will have some form of non Wii U next generation console. I came to that sum by using posts that used actual percentage chances like @jonano: and used the lowest percent chance given. Then I averaged the users that gave an absolute certainty to their post. I didn't use my own prediction or any prediction that was phrased as an either or statement.

second edit: The last post dropped the chance to 1.2%

The most recent update dropped the chance to 1.09% So based on this community there is enough evidence to say that it won't happen.

So far the chance for debuting a new console at this year's E3 dropped to 0.002% You have to be a bad gambler to bet on those odds.

Well that's hard to say I mean there will be Next Gen stuff there because Epic is showing the Unreal engine 4 ,which will pretty much be the main engine for the new consoles and there are rumours out the ass on them as well so I don't know I'd give it a 60-70% chance .I guess you have to wait until Monday to find out, actually now that I think about it ,there was a lot of talk of Next gen consoles on the Bombcast until Jeff came back from E3 judges and he said it won't disappoint so who knows hopfully something.

I'll say 5%. Microsoft won't say a thing so it's really all up to Sony to come out and say something. But, it will be probably just a few words in the end, some vague references. A teaser trailer at best.

Sadly, since both Sony and Microsoft have just recently said they won't talk about their next consoles, I wager the chance of it happening anyway is extremely slim. Sure, it's not unheard of that companies say one thing and then do another, but I'd be extremely surprised if they revealed some big information regarding it. If anything, it'll probably be what @Winternet: said; some vague references and stuff. My expectations are low, but hopefully Sony and Microsoft knows that and will surprise everyone with a bang.

Also, Jeff just created the Orbis and Durango wikipages two days ago. Coincidence? #E3Mysteries

I thought console owners were fine with the current consoles and were against getting a new gen out so soon? Same with the manufacturers, since Microsoft recently released Kinect and SONY says the PS3 will have a 10 year long life? 
 
That's it? Next gen next year?

@AhmadMetallic said:

I thought console owners were fine with the current consoles and were against getting a new gen out so soon? Same with the manufacturers, since Microsoft recently released Kinect and SONY says the PS3 will have a 10 year long life? That's it? Next gen next year?

Quite sure that depends on who you're asking. Yes, several people post comments like "that's fine, I don't need/want another expensive console yet", but I'd think a (silent) majority are very interested to see what MS and Sony will do next. I know I am at least!

They won't announce anything this year. Going through all those games only for the end to go 'Look at this thing, it makes all of these games obsolete!

Something like that would have leaked by now. Especially from Sony.

That reminds me, Paul Barnett pretty much said that EA has the dev kits of next gen consoles, so they wouldn't have those if it wasn't expected to come out in 2013/2014

Very small chance, these things always leak ahead of time.. We'd know something about them by now. They've also both come straight out and said there will be no new consoles on show.

Microsoft are going to push Kinect, their social media integration and the few games they have left for the 360 and Sony have to really push to sell the Vita. It also seems they're going to try and push their PSN stuff much more, which could potentially be interesting..

Bottom line, I don't think this E3 is going to be super exciting, it's basically a stop gap year.

@AhmadMetallic said:

I thought console owners were fine with the current consoles and were against getting a new gen out so soon? Same with the manufacturers, since Microsoft recently released Kinect and SONY says the PS3 will have a 10 year long life? That's it? Next gen next year?

Quite sure that depends on who you're asking. Yes, several people post comments like "that's fine, I don't need/want another expensive console yet", but I'd think a (silent) majority are very interested to see what MS and Sony will do next. I know I am at least!

Microsoft won't be announcing anything. I highly doubt Sony will either since they're even further behind Microsoft in terms of the development of their next console, but they haven't officially confirmed that, unlike Microsoft, have they?

My very crude and unscientific study show that PS3 was * announced* two years before it was released.

@AhmadMetallic: PS2 had a long shelf span after the launch of PS3. Saying that PS3 has a ten year cycle doesn't mean that they won't have a PS4 on the market.

I am about 50/50 on this. I think there is a good reason to believe they will. I also think that there is a fair shake that integration of peripherals is the big announcement.

I'm pretty much 100% sure both Microsoft and Sony have confirmed they won't show it this year.

If Nintendo would've made the Wii U a true next gen console, it would be the talk of E3! I can't help but think they've regretted that decision by now. The circumstances couldn't have been more opportune for them.

@Winternet said:

I'll say 5%. Microsoft won't say a thing so it's really all up to Sony to come out and say something. But, it will be probably just a few words in the end, some vague references. A teaser trailer at best.

I too don't know if there will be any updates outside of the Wii U. There are rumors about Sony....

But I seriously doubt there will be a teaser for something like that either. A teaser at E3? What the hell would they be teasing? What other event would be more appropriate to put out a real announcement other than the biggest gaming expo in the world? Nah... they give a full announcement or nothing at all.

No chance, don't get your hopes up for any new tech from any of them, obviously excluding Nintendo. I'm pretty sure we won't see any new hardware. Don't get me wrong though i would love to see something, but i'm doubtful.

@Jack268 said:

I'm pretty much 100% sure both Microsoft and Sony have confirmed they won't show it this year.

Either you are right or they did the best job ever of keeping a wrap on their E3 show. Dev consoles are already out there. With a two year dev cycle it is either this year or next. By waiting until next year they won't have the shock value. If they do show the nex gen it will be only a concept preview. In my mind it will be a hollow victory.

@AhmadMetallic: PS2 had a long shelf span after the launch of PS3. Saying that PS3 has a ten year cycle doesn't mean that they won't have a PS4 on the market.

To further signal the winding down of the current console generation, approximately 60% of questionnaire respondents (game developers) have no plans to release games for the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3, or Nintendo Wii after 2013.

@AhmadMetallic said:

@Cincaid said:

@AhmadMetallic said:

I thought console owners were fine with the current consoles and were against getting a new gen out so soon? Same with the manufacturers, since Microsoft recently released Kinect and SONY says the PS3 will have a 10 year long life? That's it? Next gen next year?

Quite sure that depends on who you're asking. Yes, several people post comments like "that's fine, I don't need/want another expensive console yet", but I'd think a (silent) majority are very interested to see what MS and Sony will do next. I know I am at least!

I guess it's a given that the 720 and PS4 will support Kinect and Move respectively.

You mean PlayStation Orbis and Xbox Durango

@AhmadMetallic: I didn't mean that it would actually happen that the ps3 would have sales long after the ps4 was launched. I only meant that the people in charge saw the longevity of ps2 and judged the logevity of ps3 on those stats.

It will be between zero and 0.

@hoossy said:

@Winternet said:

I'll say 5%. Microsoft won't say a thing so it's really all up to Sony to come out and say something. But, it will be probably just a few words in the end, some vague references. A teaser trailer at best.

I too don't know if there will be any updates outside of the Wii U. There are rumors about Sony....

But I seriously doubt there will be a teaser for something like that either. A teaser at E3? What the hell would they be teasing? What other event would be more appropriate to put out a real announcement other than the biggest gaming expo in the world? Nah... they give a full announcement or nothing at all.

Remember Dark Sector? Something along those lines. Or maybe a video of a car going against a wall or a chick smoking a cigarette so people can have a sense of what next gen will look like.

@hoossy said:

@Winternet said:

I'll say 5%. Microsoft won't say a thing so it's really all up to Sony to come out and say something. But, it will be probably just a few words in the end, some vague references. A teaser trailer at best.

I too don't know if there will be any updates outside of the Wii U. There are rumors about Sony....

But I seriously doubt there will be a teaser for something like that either. A teaser at E3? What the hell would they be teasing? What other event would be more appropriate to put out a real announcement other than the biggest gaming expo in the world? Nah... they give a full announcement or nothing at all.

Having done some teasers in my time, I know that it is easy to stretch out just about nothing and still get people excited. They probably don't have games to show. However they can get a crowd excited by tech demos and hardware specs. Of course they will change, but getting the buying bug into the ear of the masses early is not a bad strategy.

1% chance. That 1% will be a the end and maybe just name like look out for " x " next e3.

@Winternet said:

Remember Dark Sector? Something along those lines. Or maybe a video of a car going against a wall or a chick smoking a cigarette so people can have a sense of what next gen will look like.

@happypup70 said:

Having done some teasers in my time, I know that it is easy to stretch out just about nothing and still get people excited. They probably don't have games to show. However they can get a crowd excited by tech demos and hardware specs. Of course they will change, but getting the buying bug into the ear of the masses early is not a bad strategy.

True, but I wouldn't consider tech demos and hardware specs to be in the realm of 'teaser'. When I get to hear the build of the new system and see a some videos of what it can do, I think that reaches into something more revealing than just a 30 second clip of flashes of light and a PS4 logo... Would you consider the Wii U announcement last E3 as a teaser?

@Chavtheworld said:

It will be between zero and 0.

Those are some hard stats. Your p-value is zero. Absolute certainty is hard to find in this world. Given all that I think that you have a good chance of being right.

Absolutely none. They might throw out a tease or something like that, but nothing official.

@hoossy: As you said, it was an announcement and not a teaser. That Zelda HD video, that was a teaser.

@happypup70 said:

@Chavtheworld said:

It will be between zero and 0.

Those are some hard stats. Your p-value is zero. Absolute certainty is hard to find in this world. Given all that I think that you have a good chance of being right.

Hahah, hey man, I did statistics at A-Level, I clearly know my stuff :P

@hoossy: Yes I do. It is 4 minutes of tech demos, hardware demos, and flashy advertisements, that could be boiled down into less than thirty seconds. Nothing was complete no games were announced. functionality wasn't discussed. Hell the announcer spent a minute talking about words that began with the letter u. Microsoft or sony divulging 4 minutes to tease the next gen would be just about what I expect. They could gen up a package and decide at the very last minute if they lose the audience to show it and it would be huge. Hell for PS3 they showed the opening scene to a PS1 game. People are still talking about it

@Chavtheworld: You must be British then. With your A-level background you know the only way to have absolute predictive ability is to introduce infinity into the equation. And sense Infinity doesn't exist you must have a two headed coin.

Edit: I had to pause My little pony to respond to your post.

Odds are definitely super low, neither Sony or Microsoft seem interested in announcing anything yet. The only thing I find odd is that IGN survey that mentioned we'd be seeing new consoles in 2013. Granted, it's most likely wrong, but if it's true then we should be seeing something. I don't recall anyone ever announcing and releasing a console within the same year.

@happypup70: Sorry bro, didn't want to interrupt the MLP.

well my personal guesses - zero chance of an announcement. zero chance of teasers. Maybe some unsubstantiated jabs at Nintendo over the Wii-U.

It feels like Msoft and Sony are playing chicken with each other over hardware specs. and base console functionality.

Hey guys. You know what next gen consoles NEED? Tight Facebook/HTML5 gaming integration. Using motion controls and analog sticks as mouse pointers sounds pretty great. The next gen console gamer is all about getting social, buying "apps", and making tons of in-game micro-transactions! Get hyped!

besides the Wii-U? I'd say 0

Zero, none, nada, zilch, goose egg,....etc..

0, just more Move and Kinect support from Sony and Microsoft respectively.

@jonano said:

Well that's hard to say I mean there will be Next Gen stuff there because Epic is showing the Unreal engine 4 ,which will pretty much be the main engine for the new consoles and there are rumours out the ass on them as well so I don't know I'd give it a 60-70% chance .I guess you have to wait until Monday to find out, actually now that I think about it ,there was a lot of talk of Next gen consoles on the Bombcast until Jeff came back from E3 judges and he said it won't disappoint so who knows hopfully something.

Unreal Engine is pretty much proof that they won't be showing next gen consoles, because their showing of UE4 is to encourage platform makers to set their sights high in terms of raw power for next gen machines. So one would assume that means that the consoles aren't ready at all. The demo we see at E3 from Epic may not even be possible to achieve on next gen consoles, so assuming it will be the main engine for new consoles is a bit silly. It'll be popular but I'm willing to bet most developers want to tinker with shiny new toys before going the licensed engine route. And there are bound to be other engines competing with UE4, CryEngine being one example.

@Jack268 said:

I'm pretty much 100% sure both Microsoft and Sony have confirmed they won't show it this year.

I said this pretty much word for word in another similar thread. It's not happening guys. They aren't ready to show, so it's almost certainly not going to be something we see this year at E3. Maybe MS will announce their new console at PAX Prime this year, that'd be pretty rad, and fitting given they are a Washington company.

@hoossy said:

@Winternet said:

I'll say 5%. Microsoft won't say a thing so it's really all up to Sony to come out and say something. But, it will be probably just a few words in the end, some vague references. A teaser trailer at best.

I too don't know if there will be any updates outside of the Wii U. There are rumors about Sony....

But I seriously doubt there will be a teaser for something like that either. A teaser at E3? What the hell would they be teasing? What other event would be more appropriate to put out a real announcement other than the biggest gaming expo in the world? Nah... they give a full announcement or nothing at all.

I could be wrong... but wasn't the 360 unveiled at CES? It wasn't at E3, as far as I know. With how fast PAX sold out this year, I'd say it's arguably as big as E3. So big that they have to have two of them a year. There are plenty of places it's appropriate to announce a new console. Come to think of it, I think the 360 was just announced, not in any connection to an event.

@Winternet said:

That reminds me, Paul Barnett pretty much said that EA has the dev kits of next gen consoles, so they wouldn't have those if it wasn't expected to come out in 2013/2014

Depends on what you think a dev kit is. If I had to guess, the consoles are still being figured out, and the reason hardware is going out is to get input on what might need changing, what specs need bumping up or can be sacrificed, stuff like that. The 360 had a similar situation, as MS was really smart about letting developers have a significant influence on the development of the hardware. For example, the well known story in which Epic managed to convince Microsoft to bump the RAM up to 512MB from a laughable 256MB. Given that Epic is still trying to influence the next generation of consoles, I'd say it's pretty likely they are still in that sort of stage.

@MordeaniisChaos: Given that there is a 1 % chance (created by the posters of this thread,) that there will be a console debut at this E3 I would say that you are probably right. In fat you are probably right with a 99% certainty.

Absolutely zero chance.

It's fucked up how everyone's abandoned 420 in favor of 720.

Sony might do it and they should.

2%

Unless they are planing on releasing them in 2013 then i doubt it.

I wouldn't be surprised if they mentioned something even if only a small piece of information about them, and ring them out next year or the year after, i don;t really remember how the reveal of the ps3 and 360 went down back in the day to compare.

Trust me, there will be news about a new Xbox.

Don't know anything about Sony.

I just want either Sony or Microsoft to flash a logo at the end of their presentations.

@BPRJCTX: You better be right!

Close to zero. Neither Sony or Microsoft are going to butcher their Christmas sales by revealing a console now.

I thought they already said they weren't going to. They have to do it next year, so until then it'll be the Wii U alone.