I enjoyed Shadow Complex more than the other games you listed, so, my vote is for that. But really, you can't go wrong with any of those options, except maybe Rainbow Six Vegas 2, I don't know anything about that. Also consider Super Street Fighter IV is releasing in about a week.
For me Fallout 3 seems like best option since you said it would be your first RPG it could be a good introduction because it has a lot of FPS elements which might make it easier to copy with to begin with. Since you said you have to get it from Marketplace then Street Fighter 4 seems like a bad option since most players will probably move on as soon as Super comes out. If you get into Fallout 3 it will last you a long time and has downloadable content to continue your experience. Afterwords you could then get into other RPG's so that it introduces you to an entire genre (and since you havent played any of them then they would be cheap).
Hands down, without even a shadow of a doubt - Fallout 3. The game is one of the best games ever made and will change the way you view video games. I assure you, it will; be the best purchase you've made in a while (gaming related of course).
@AlwaysAngry: Second game is way better in every way, I don't even want to play the first game anymore. I think it's 95% on gamerankings right now which means it's actually good. Fallout 3 is overated and not that fun. Then again maybe you might like it. Buy the game of the year edition with all the extra content.
I already bought Fallout 3 and have played it for about 30 minutes maybe? I'm just about to take the G.O.A.T test. I'm enjoying it I guess, I haven't really played alot. I'm sure it will be great though.
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