Do you think Dance Central will be the best selling game of 2011?

I know the game comes out here in October but after picking up word of mouth for a few months this game has huge potential on a mass scale. If anyone has watched trade show vids nearly all women love it and lets be honest, men will buy things if women like them.  That has been going on for thousands of years.
 
Dance Central has no controller unlike the Wii which even if it doesn't register 100% accurate, to most of the people playing it, they will notice no difference.  I just can't help thinking that Dance Central will even outsell Rock Band 3 or possibly even Call of Duty games at least for the first year DC is out.
 
I just think Harmonix has gotten their second gold mine.

No way in hell

God i hope not. More top selling rhythm games, thats all we need.

No way. It's clearly going to be Duke Nukem ;)

No matter how good the game turns out to be the cost to actually play the game  is too high for it to sell as well as other games ($150 for Kinect then another $50 for the actual game). Realistically, how many people are willing to spend $200 just to play Dance Central?

No 

Hahahahaha.......... No.

Nope, because that would require buying kinect.

Not a chance. Not even Rockband is the best selling, and this is a much harder and more niche sell.

No, because you need to buy a $200 motion sensor to be able to play it.

Umm no. Most of it's sales will come at the Kinect's launch which will not be in 2011.

I would agree with you if dance central didn't require a $150 peripheral.  I do think that Dance central will definitely be the best-selling kinect game of 2011

Not even close

I know I'm speaking to the wrong crowd but let's take a look at most 20's-30's casual gamers.  Most of them bought the Wii for sports which costs $250 at the time for their girlfriends, whatever.  
 
This is a game buddies will see a hot chick dancing at a friends house to and will say (you know what I need to pick up this game).  First Person Shooters don't have that same appeal.  
 
You don't think for alot of people who don't own a console, and even the people who already own a 360 will spend $210 before tax for a game that has tons of appeal to people who don't normally play games?  I'm sorry but tons of people have spent over $500 on crap they thought was "cool" before but never really used.
 
Dance Central is by far the most accessible game in recent history to the mainstream that plays well, you dance to the moves played on screen and THATS IT.  Plus the bottom line is its actually fun.  Plus it's really sexy when hot women play it.
 
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong I can accept that, but I will bet Dance Central will sell at least 5 million copies before November 2011.
 
(Edit:  IMO Dance Central has the "peer pressure" tagline attached to it) meaning most of your friends who don't normally play games or maybe play Halo or Call of Duty only will buy this for their friends and Wii  for parties or their girlfriends and it will make you want to buy it)

" No way in hell "

" If I'm wrong, I'm wrong I can accept that, but I will bet Dance Central will sell at least 5 million copies before November 2011. "

Nope...because I always bet on Duke.

Stranger things have happened, but I would be absolutely shocked if Dance Central sold 5 million copies in a year, let alone prove to be the best selling game of 2011. I just cannot fathom how that would ever happen. Especially given that you need to buy Kinect to play it, which costs a whopping 150 dollars.
 
Again though, anything is possible.

" I know I'm speaking to the wrong crowd but let's take a look at most 20's-30's casual gamers.  Most of them bought the Wii for sports which costs $250 at the time for their girlfriends, whatever.
 
This is a game buddies will see a hot chick dancing at a friends house to and will say (you know what I need to pick up this game).  First Person Shooters don't have that same appeal.    
 
You don't think for alot of people who don't own a console, and even the people who already own a 360 will spend $210 before tax for a game that has tons of appeal to people who don't normally play games?  
 
I'm sorry but tons of people have spent over $500 on crap they thought was "cool" before but never really used. Dance Central is by far the most accessible game in recent history to the mainstream that plays well, you dance to the moves played on screen and THATS IT.  Plus the bottom line is its actually fun.  Plus it's really sexy when hot women play it.  
 
If I'm wrong, I'm wrong I can accept that, but I will bet Dance Central will sell at least 5 million copies before November 2011.  
 
(Edit:  IMO Dance Central has the "peer pressure" tagline attached to it) meaning most of your friends who don't normally play games or maybe play Halo or Call of Duty only will buy this for their friends and Wii  for parties or their girlfriends and it will make you want to buy it) "

People here conveniently forget that many, many casual go-ers have bought DS' for Brain Training games, and Wii's for their niche apps. The only big thing I can see going against it is the dance thing isn't exactly fresh anymore.

I like Harmonix. I really hope they do well with this and Rock Band 3 :).

No.

I doubt it. We will have to figure out some weird formula involving the current 360 install base, how many will actually buy a Kinnect, and how many of those will want this game - throw in the significant other factor in their somewhere. I'm pretty sure Nintendo will publish several games that have/will sell more.

Nope, there is no way.

i doubt it the 150 price tag for just the kinect is a huge turn off

" @EpicSteve: Well in fairness the OP said 2011.  But No. "

" @EpicSteve: Well in fairness the OP said 2011.  But No. "

I think it'll do well, but I would assume that price and exclusivity will severely hinder its chances.
 
We'll have to wait an see what happens with the 3DS and potential big Nintendo titles but right now I'm assuming Gear of War 3?

I really think there's no way that there will be 5 million Kinects in homes within a year, much less, for Dance central to be the best selling game of 2011. Right now, neither Kinect or Dance Central have that kind of cultural cache or word of mouth going for it. A few random stats - In the first year the 360 sold roughly six million units and (according to wikipedia) as of March 2010 Modern Warfare 2 sold about 10 million units in the US. I'm sure they will make their huge morning talk show push soon but Microsoft hasn't really proven that Kinect works yet.
 
How many people bought the Wii for Wii Sports? A whole lot. How many of them only played it for a few weeks? A bet a whole lot. Yeah, there were a lot of people that bought Wiis for one game but it cost about half as much. I wonder how many people have learned their lesson with the Wii? Also, you may be underestimating how many people are self conscious and will refuse to dance even in front of their friends. I think they should introduce a new bundle: Kinect, Dance Central and a large bottle of hard liquor. :-P

" Nope...because I always bet on Duke. "

On one hand, I want to say "no". After all, the majority of gamers are middle aged heterosexual males. The least likely audience to give a fuck about dancing. On the other hand, it will appeal to the masses and sell like mad, just like the Wii and Wii Fit. 
 
Personally, I hate it and think it's shit and I won't have any of it. HOWEVER, when i've watched people (especially non-gamers) play it, they seem so excited and happy that I kind of hope it finds a solid audience of new gamers. I'm for anything that makes people happy and lets them enjoy themselves, so what the fuck, right?

I don't see people coming home from work/school and dancing in front of their TV. 
 
In order for this game to do well.....Kinect needs to do really well, which i don't see happening. (I hope) People are smart enough to see that $150 for a camera is not worth it.

No, people are weary of buying a $210 game.

Pretty sure thats not gonna happen.

I seriously doubt it. Its far too expensive for it to be anything close to a best selling game. However, I hope it does well for itself and kinect. Kinect is an interesting idea, and I hope it will evolve into something amazing.

Pokemon Black or White.

Here's why it's not going to sell that well.
 
Hypothetical situation:
"Hey honey, look at this, it's a video game where you can dance and it gives you points and stuff."
"Oh, is it on the Wii?"
"No, it's on the Xbox"
"Oh, well don't we already have Just Dance? Isn't it just like that?" (which has sold over 2m copies) 
"I guess."

I sure hope not....

Lets hope not.

Wouldn't that selling well imply that Kinect would also have to sell well? 
 
That, and dancing games are stupid. 

No and it won't even be close.

God help us if it does.

sure it will........
IN ANOTHER UNIVERSE.