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#1 Posted by Darji (5294 posts) -

WTF are the people at MS smoking? Seriously.

"Every generation, as you've probably heard, has grown approximately 30%," he said. "So this generation is about 300 million units.

Most industry experts think the next generation will get upwards of about 400 million units. That's if it's a game console, over the next decade

."

Moreover, Medhi thinks the general entertainment capabilities of Xbox One and PS4 will more than double their selling power. "

We think you can go broader than a game console, that's our aim, and you can go from 400 million to potentially upwards of a billion units

. That's how we're thinking of the Xbox opportunity as we go forward."

http://www.oxm.co.uk/54712/microsoft-aiming-for-100-million-xbox-360s-sold-and-one-billion-next-gen-consoles/

#2 Posted by Marokai (2792 posts) -

Oh my God they really are just delusional.

#3 Edited by Excast (794 posts) -

The more you hear from Microsoft the more you really get a vibe of Sony around the PS3 reveal. Just wildly out of touch with what their core customers seem to be looking for.

#5 Edited by ssj4raditz (1125 posts) -

Those are some high expectations...

#6 Edited by Varren (4 posts) -

Stupid Stupid Stupid Stupid Stupid

I have no words for this asinine and delusional level of arrogance.

#7 Edited by believer258 (11570 posts) -

Update: just to clarify, he's talking about all next gen consoles combined here]

This came directly after that sentence. The wording is still confusing, but I don't think that Microsoft are actually expecting it to sell an entire billion. Still sounds way too optimistic, but I don't think that's quite the message here.

#8 Edited by Darji (5294 posts) -

@believer258 said:

Update: just to clarify, he's talking about all next gen consoles combined here]

This came directly after that sentence. The wording is still confusing, but I don't think that Microsoft are actually expecting it to sell an entire billion. Still sounds way too optimistic, but I don't think that's quite the message here.

I know that. But it is still beyond stupid. So lets see at the moment most people predict the Wii U to sell like 30 million LTD. Which makes it 970 million for PS4 and XBOX one with most of them sold XBOX one consoles? Do not make me laugh.

#9 Edited by BeachThunder (11651 posts) -

Well, to be fair, a billion units doesn't necessarily mean a billion people; perhaps they expect both of the people that are interested to buy 500 million each.

But, really, I'm sure people will buy multiple Xones, given that there will probably be some kind of next generation red ring.

#10 Edited by MattyFTM (14330 posts) -

I can see it being closer to that than you might think. Not necessarily due to the media functionality, but due to the growing emerging markets. If console manufacturers grow their userbase in places like Russia and South America, and even break into the Chinese and Indian markets, they could be getting somewhere close to that 1 Billion figure. I doubt it'll get quite that high, but total console sales this generation it could end up doubling compared to last generation.

Of course, that's a big "if". Whilst they are quickly growing economies, the vast majority of people in those countries still don't have enough money to buy a PS4 or XB1 on release. And piracy and cheap knock-off consoles are easy alternatives. They certainly won't break into those markets at the beginning of the console lifecycle, it will have to be significantly reduced manufacturing costs before they can release them at a price point that will even begin to sell in those countries.

But I think there is a significant possibility that the growing economies of those countries, combined with falling manufacturing costs of the consoles, in 4 or 5 years time we could see Microsoft and Sony successfully launch their consoles in several countries that they wouldn't typically target, which could lead to a significantly higher number of console sales.

Moderator
#11 Edited by FourWude (2261 posts) -

@mattyftm: No. Just No. Even with all emerging markets* coupled with the Thetans from the Planet Naboo they ain't selling a combined Billion units. NEVER GONNA HAPPEN. Not even half that amount will be sold. Even if next gen lasts 15 years. The consumer base worldwide is not there for these products. If both the PS3 and Xbox One break a 100 million each it would be groundbreaking.

This is MS just mouthing off about its latest and greatest product, like with Windows 8, Windows phone, Surface... List goes on.

Edit: *The vast majority of emerging markets have had full access to the current gen consoles. You can buy these consoles easily in most countries around the world. The wealthy just import anyway. So there isn't going to be any major unsourced tap of consumers.

#12 Posted by SploogeStain (39 posts) -

Well from what i've heard so far they've already lost 1 long time customer in me, so I don't understand how they expect to find this many more.

#13 Posted by MEATBALL (3020 posts) -

I doubt they actually expect that, simply more that they're aiming high. It's not a bad thing to have ambition.

#15 Posted by SamStrife (1282 posts) -

@excast said:

The more you hear from Microsoft the more you really get a vibe of Sony around the PS3 reveal. Just wildly out of touch with what their core customers seem to be looking for.

This exactly

#16 Edited by Metal_Mills (2980 posts) -

@excast said:

The more you hear from Microsoft the more you really get a vibe of Sony around the PS3 reveal. Just wildly out of touch with what their core customers seem to be looking for.

It's simple. Don't have HDMI? Don't have fast internet? Can't afford new games? Get a second job! It worked for the PS3!

#17 Posted by Excast (794 posts) -

@mattyftm: While there are certainly a lot of potential customers in emerging markets, how many of them have the reliable internet connection that is apparently going to be necessary to use an XB1? How how are going to be interested in media features that seem almost completely designed for the American cable market?

If anything, Microsoft's new console has a more narrow window to success than the 360.

#18 Posted by Jimbo (9769 posts) -

Leigh Alexander works for Microsoft now?

#19 Posted by Seppli (10251 posts) -

Outside of the US, the set top box market is only just developing now. Seeing how both the Xbox One and PS4 can serve as a set top box, respectively media streaming hub, they really could penetrate the market way beyond what it is now. It all comes down to co-marketing with cable service providers, distributing heavily subsidized boxes to the broad public. 800$ smartphones are being distributed for *free*, if the consumer binds himself to a lenghty and expensive dataplan.

Expect many Xbox One and PS4 boxes being offered *gratis*, or at least dirtcheap, together with expensive dataplans. Hey - I might double down on my dataplan if I get a free box out of it.

#20 Edited by Arabes (338 posts) -

@mattyftm: If they could harness growing markets like Russia and China it might happen over ten years, but if the rumours surronding the once a day internet connection and the £35 charge on used games are true, then they have pretty much eliminated all markets bar Europe, Northern America and Japan/Singapore.

#21 Posted by Tennmuerti (7957 posts) -

Russian market is negligible to none. To even mention it as potential for X1 is being misinformed at best.

Firstly, the PC has long since won the war there by a landslide via piracy. And super low Steam pricing models have cemented this further. Secondly, the population of Russia is actually not that big and the population of proper urbanized areas that are feasible to target is even smaller. Finally the average income is much lower, prohibiting full priced retail games at western equivalent prices to most people, never mind a console, and the inflexible console digital pricing plays right into this too.

It's not going to play any significant role in numbers sold. Especially not on any scale remotely significant to the (lol) 1 billion number.

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#22 Posted by Winternet (8002 posts) -

That's an illegal amount of consoles.

#23 Posted by rebgav (1429 posts) -
@mattyftm said:

If console manufacturers grow their userbase in places like Russia and South America, and even break into the Chinese and Indian markets, they could be getting somewhere close to that 1 Billion figure.

And that could happen, as soon as they release a low-cost low-power piracy-proof offline-capable console approved and controlled by the Chinese authorities.

#24 Posted by Dangerloves (82 posts) -

@jimbo: Heh. Nice one.

That's an unbelievably odd figure. Do we even have enough resources to make that many consoles? I guess they expect the same people buying multiple units, as each console will suffer hardware failures within a year.

But in seriousness, if the price is right, I would expect people buying these things as a new gadget replacement for their existing TV Tuner/BluRay/Multimedia... hub. And don't say people don't buy dumb shit, cause idiots fucking buy new iphones like there's no tomorrow all the time. That's fuckin' sad

#25 Posted by Nictel (2370 posts) -

Moreover, Medhi thinks the general entertainment capabilities of Xbox One and PS4 will more than double their selling power. "

I think Medhi underestimates the general entertainment competition, why buy an additional box when (I believe) a lot of TVs are going to have things like netflix built-in. The new Samsung tvs already have voice recognition, recommendations engine, tv-cable menu overlay. If your tv already does that, why get an extra box?

#26 Posted by probablytuna (3525 posts) -

I see the dream is still very much alive, eight years later...

#27 Edited by Cloudenvy (5891 posts) -

@excast said:

The more you hear from Microsoft the more you really get a vibe of Sony around the PS3 reveal. Just wildly out of touch with what their core customers seem to be looking for.

This is exactly what I'm reminded of.

#28 Posted by Viking_Funeral (1727 posts) -

It sounds like Microsoft is pulling play out of the EA handbook.

Why even announce these expectations externally? What good does that serve, except to give your critics fodder when these nearly unattainable goals aren't reached?

#29 Edited by rebgav (1429 posts) -

But in seriousness, if the price is right, I would expect people buying these things as a new gadget replacement for their existing TV Tuner/BluRay/Multimedia... hub. And don't say people don't buy dumb shit, cause idiots fucking buy new iphones like there's no tomorrow all the time. That's fuckin' sad

People buy dumb shit that they can show off with. You can walk around with your iPhone in your hand all day long but almost no-one is going to see your tv tuner. As a prestige item, anything which stays in the living room is a failure.

#30 Posted by Brodehouse (9524 posts) -

I would be surprised if they made a billion in software sales. 360 sold about 800M if I remember, and that's including before the whole economy fell apart and the mini-crash of 08.

So far the only console to hit a billion software is the PS2 with about 1.6 billion. PS1 had like 950M and the Wii sputtered out around 850M.

Oh wait he's talking about units? He's nuts. Put him away.

#31 Edited by EXTomar (4454 posts) -

Early adopters often buy stuff of dubious value for dubious reasons.

As for the "billion in sales" claim, I can see the pulling off a "billion in sales" but that might cost them billions in upfront cash to advertise and promote and invest in games dev and supply chain management to pull off.

#32 Posted by Mcfart (1538 posts) -

If they get an untapped audience, who knows. They seem to be trying to advertise to anyone that owns a TV (which is well over a billion I'm sure).

#33 Edited by agentboolen (1749 posts) -

$500 asking price isn't going to get it into everyone's houses. Yes I think they will hit big sales but I'm doubting there going to get the casual user just because it has apps, now a days everything has apps. I don't think there will be enough of a need for it for certain people to buy one which will keep them away from 1 billion sales.

#34 Posted by RuthLoose (775 posts) -

Billion with a B?

#35 Posted by Optix12 (609 posts) -

yea thats a silly number. Even if you want to factor in Russia and India, not much of the population would actually be able to afford or want to invest in it when their previous xbox or pc already plays their illegal games (in india at least, its pretty much commonplace to be downloading your games).

Microsoft at this point to me is digging itself further down a hole that at some point even E3 wont be able to fill up, I dont know if this is really their sort of marketing push but to me they might need to hold a few meetings to get all their stories straight

#36 Posted by Unequivocable (214 posts) -

Their unspoken plan to double the number of units is to make this generation last TWENTY YEARS!

#37 Posted by Dangerloves (82 posts) -

@rebgav said:

@dangerloves said:

But in seriousness, if the price is right, I would expect people buying these things as a new gadget replacement for their existing TV Tuner/BluRay/Multimedia... hub. And don't say people don't buy dumb shit, cause idiots fucking buy new iphones like there's no tomorrow all the time. That's fuckin' sad

People buy dumb shit that they can show off with. You can walk around with your iPhone in your hand all day long but almost no-one is going to see your tv tuner. As a prestige item, anything which stays in the living room is a failure.

If people are actually buying iphones so they can show them off as an accessory to status, then thats really fuckin' sad. But you do whatcha want right?

#38 Posted by Darji (5294 posts) -

@seppli said:

Outside of the US, the set top box market is only just developing now. Seeing how both the Xbox One and PS4 can serve as a set top box, respectively media streaming hub, they really could penetrate the market way beyond what it is now. It all comes down to co-marketing with cable service providers, distributing heavily subsidized boxes to the broad public. 800$ smartphones are being distributed for *free*, if the consumer binds himself to a lenghty and expensive dataplan.

Expect many Xbox One and PS4 boxes being offered *gratis*, or at least dirtcheap, together with expensive dataplans. Hey - I might double down on my dataplan if I get a free box out of it.

LOL No outisde of the US no one fucking cares about A Live TV and B TV in general. In Europe you do not have stupid TV situations. You have like one or 2 provider max. you pay like 25 euro and you can watcher over 100 channels if you want to. US is crazy in terms of pay tv. and it will never come over to Europe becasue people do not care.

#39 Edited by Seppli (10251 posts) -

@darji said:

@seppli said:

Outside of the US, the set top box market is only just developing now. Seeing how both the Xbox One and PS4 can serve as a set top box, respectively media streaming hub, they really could penetrate the market way beyond what it is now. It all comes down to co-marketing with cable service providers, distributing heavily subsidized boxes to the broad public. 800$ smartphones are being distributed for *free*, if the consumer binds himself to a lenghty and expensive dataplan.

Expect many Xbox One and PS4 boxes being offered *gratis*, or at least dirtcheap, together with expensive dataplans. Hey - I might double down on my dataplan if I get a free box out of it.

LOL No outisde of the US no one fucking cares about A Live TV and B TV in general. In Europe you do not have stupid TV situations. You have like one or 2 provider max. you pay like 25 euro and you can watcher over 100 channels if you want to. US is crazy in terms of pay tv. and it will never come over to Europe becasue people do not care.

Doesn't change the fact that these providers do try to get into our livingrooms. There is a major push for digital TV currently on-going in Europe, and while it's not for internet savy people like us, there still are enough barely internet literate consumers out there, that such an initiative can be successful. For many, it's just better TV, and now's the time to get with the times - so why not get a Xbox One or PS4 with my new digital TV dataplan. It's like a free bluray player. Yay!

We are not representative of the market at large. Not everybody does know better. A majority likely doesn't.

#40 Posted by Darji (5294 posts) -

@seppli said:

@darji said:

@seppli said:

Outside of the US, the set top box market is only just developing now. Seeing how both the Xbox One and PS4 can serve as a set top box, respectively media streaming hub, they really could penetrate the market way beyond what it is now. It all comes down to co-marketing with cable service providers, distributing heavily subsidized boxes to the broad public. 800$ smartphones are being distributed for *free*, if the consumer binds himself to a lenghty and expensive dataplan.

Expect many Xbox One and PS4 boxes being offered *gratis*, or at least dirtcheap, together with expensive dataplans. Hey - I might double down on my dataplan if I get a free box out of it.

LOL No outisde of the US no one fucking cares about A Live TV and B TV in general. In Europe you do not have stupid TV situations. You have like one or 2 provider max. you pay like 25 euro and you can watcher over 100 channels if you want to. US is crazy in terms of pay tv. and it will never come over to Europe becasue people do not care.

Doesn't change the fact that these providers do try to get into our livingrooms. There is a major push for digital TV currently on-going in Europe, and while it's not for internet savy people like us, there still are enough barely internet literate consumers out there, that such an intiative can be successful. For many, it's just better TV and now's the time to get with the times - so why not get a Xbox One or PS4 with my digital TV dataplan. It's like a free bluray player. Yay!

We are not representative of the market at large. Not everybody does know better.

At least not in Germany where I live. Huge Push LOL. No. Europe does not care. all they want is their F1 and Soccer leagues and they are fine. people here are not even use much stuff like netflix because they do not care.

#41 Posted by THRICE_604 (210 posts) -

Okay riddle me this one "analysts", console sales are expected to go up next gen when they went way down this gen? The Xbox 360 and PS3 combined did not match the sales of the PS2.

To then say there will be this absurd almost impossible spike in that number is delusional. Or just plain hubris.

#42 Posted by Gladiator_Games (443 posts) -

Does Dr Evil work for microsoft? "One Billion!"

#43 Edited by zenmastah (871 posts) -

Potentially one BILLION MILLION consoles will be sold!

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#44 Posted by rebgav (1429 posts) -

@rebgav said:

@dangerloves said:

But in seriousness, if the price is right, I would expect people buying these things as a new gadget replacement for their existing TV Tuner/BluRay/Multimedia... hub. And don't say people don't buy dumb shit, cause idiots fucking buy new iphones like there's no tomorrow all the time. That's fuckin' sad

People buy dumb shit that they can show off with. You can walk around with your iPhone in your hand all day long but almost no-one is going to see your tv tuner. As a prestige item, anything which stays in the living room is a failure.

If people are actually buying iphones so they can show them off as an accessory to status, then thats really fuckin' sad. But you do whatcha want right?

Of course people do that, why else do you think that Apple moves the goalposts every year? Their brand is based on this pseudo-prestige nonsense.

#45 Edited by Optix12 (609 posts) -

Darji is somewhat right, theres a big push in the UK for a digital box called freeview but thats mostly because terrestrial channels have been cut and thats the only real way to watch television anymore around the UK. The other 2 companies are Virgin and Sky which are pretty much doing the same style of push as they have always done. The blu-ray thing is a nice get if people arent paying attention to any of the many other potential things which play blu-rays now but if they mostly wanted that they could get a ps3 or cheaper blu-ray player which does the same job (ps3 also still plays games). It may be easier to adapt the TV stuff over here but besides sky streaming on the xbox there hasnt really been a push with the xbox to try and adapt it (although the bombcast did mention they wanted bbc iplayer but wanted it through gold which is stupid). If they get a huge deal with sky or virgin in europe to have a subsidized xbox come along with exclusive abilities/access then it may work but as a standalone box to buy its not going to do much over here.

#46 Posted by deathstriker666 (1337 posts) -

The Xbox has always been aimed squarely at the American middle class. When we talk about the PC we truly fail to comprehend how global and dominant such a platform it is. Russia, China, and India are almost exclusively PC markets with a smartphone/tablet base rapidly gaining a foothold. The console fills a redundant need for entertainment and its closed-in nature turns a lot of would be pirates away.

I don't think there's even a billion people out there rich enough to afford a Xbone, let alone in Brad bucks.

#47 Posted by McTangle (157 posts) -

Of course they'll sell a billion machines. I'd be amazed if they didn't sell two billion. They've developed something you've never seen before, a games console 'more powerful than the top-end gaming PCs' according to EA and you can plug it into your TV and it lets you watch TV on your TV. Revolutionary.

#48 Posted by Nictel (2370 posts) -

Oh of course! They sell to 400 million customers, the box breaks down an average of 3 times so that's 1 billion console sales!

#49 Posted by Orbitz (67 posts) -

@rebgav said:

@dangerloves said:

@rebgav said:

@dangerloves said:

But in seriousness, if the price is right, I would expect people buying these things as a new gadget replacement for their existing TV Tuner/BluRay/Multimedia... hub. And don't say people don't buy dumb shit, cause idiots fucking buy new iphones like there's no tomorrow all the time. That's fuckin' sad

People buy dumb shit that they can show off with. You can walk around with your iPhone in your hand all day long but almost no-one is going to see your tv tuner. As a prestige item, anything which stays in the living room is a failure.

If people are actually buying iphones so they can show them off as an accessory to status, then thats really fuckin' sad. But you do whatcha want right?

Of course people do that, why else do you think that Apple moves the goalposts every year? Their brand is based on this pseudo-prestige nonsense.

And then there are Apple fans such as myself who buy Apple products because I honestly just enjoy them and prefer them to their Windows or Android counterparts. I never even thought about the "prestige" stuff to be honest. I do use an Android phone though.

#50 Edited by FourWude (2261 posts) -

One Billion people being peeped on continuously 24\7 by the kinect....