My problem is that I cannot figure out who the target market for the Wii U is supposed to be.
Incoming anecdote: earlier this year, my older sister decided to buy herself a Wii after having played The Michael Jackson Experience over at a friend's house. Her friends actually owned the Kinect version, but she settled on the Wii for the lower overall price. Being the knowledgeable person in the family when it came to games, I got to tag along with her while she went to buy herself a system, Michael Jackson, Wii Fit and some other fitness game that she hasn't even taken the plastic wrap off of to this day. She occasionally played with her new toy for a couple weekends and let the thing collect dust. The last time she told me about it, she just wanted me to set it up so she could use it as a Netflix box.
Do I see her buying a Wii U? Nope. She's perfectly satisfied with her current party/exercise/Netflix box and the allure of better graphics mean nothing to her. This is dangerous to Nintendo, as it is people with her her exact mindset that made the Wii into the success that it was. Nintendo needs a way to make the Wii U into as much of a must-have casual party machine as its predecessor, and I just don't see that Wii U controller stirring the imaginations of the Oprah and Ellen crowd like the Wiimote did.
A major focus of the Wii U is to lure the core, male 18-35, dude-bro set back into Nintendo's fold, but how successful will this tactic be? Will people who have been perfectly satisfied sticking to their 360s, PS3s and/or PCs pick up a Nintendo system just because it's finally in HD? Why would they when Microsoft and Sony will be making them drool with tech demos and sneak peaks at their new hardware? The controller will have some great tricks up its sleeves, but only Nintendo and a few experimental third party titles will put a real focus on it. Most third parties will likely do the bare minimum implementation of the controller's features so they can still smoothly release the title on 360, PS3 and PC, which would further feed the stigma that the Wii U is a half-step to the real next generation.
That just leaves the hardcore Nintendo crowd, the loyal fans who'll follow the plumber barefoot into hell. They'll of course get the Wii U because they get all the Nintendo hardware. Nintendo has shown that they can be successful while being limited to this audience; the Nintendo 64 and the Game Cube ultimately made them money, right? It's just that there's no way that the Wii's success could be replicated or surpassed with such a comparatively tiny audience.
Nintendo did an excellent job outmaneuvering its competition this cycle by pushing new, innovative ideas that appealed to a much greater audience. It goes without doubt that the dual screens and touch control of the DS and the motion based gameplay of the Wii combined with broad appeal, inclusive software is what put Nintendo on top. However I fear that Nintendo is out of get-out-of-jail-free cards and will suffer greatly for it. The recent troubles of the 3DS seem to vindicate this thought.
TL,DR: The glory days of the Wii and DS are over and Nintendo has an uphill battle ahead of them in the coming generation.
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