Realistically, which Motion controller has the best chance?

Im very Skeptical about both, but im more skeptical about Natal. Im not questioning wether or not itll be marketed or be supported well, I question how people will react to it. Is the average gamer the kind of person taht wants to flayel about in front of there TV? or maybe MS isnt going for the average gamer, but for the main Wii gamer that uses it for fitness and waving around like a jackass. Although, I think it has the most potential to be awesome. And if it catches fire, could change alot of things about gaming and could really sky rocket 360 sales. I do think Sonys controller is the more practical apporach, but the least potential compared to Natal. But I think it could be the easier sell to gamers.    

the wii hd or whatever the hell they call it

Really it hinges on three factors: support, support, and more support. Otherwise, it's too early to call anything specific.

The Sony motion controller looks like it's just trying to be the Wii controller, I don't understand at all how people hype that the most out of them (there all pretty shit though)

I think Natal is the one with the less chance of mass-adoption.

Neither, they both suck.  I can't see myself using either.  The ps3 one is a wii knockoff and that's not something to be proud of.  Natal just doesn't seem fun on the other hand.

none. Shovelware, shovelware, shovelware, painting shit on elephants' asses, shovelware.

Which is more of a silly gimmick?
 
Motion controllers or 3D tvs? Both seem like cheesy gimmicks that don't add a whole lot. Hasn't the wii proven already that the only thing motion controllers are good for is minigames?
 
They could be spending development money on so many better things.

If Natal gets packed in with each new 360 and the PS3 Arc remains something each customer has to buy separately (like a headset!) then Natal will be the one that succeeds despite the Arc being a more precise devise.  Chances are by this time next year (or even this Christmas) every 360 will come with a Natal and that will mean developers will know that there is an expanding customer base for their Natal games.  I think both are gimmicks, but you ask which has the better chance at success and that's my answer.  Sadly, Sony doesn't have much of a history in this area, so I doubt they will pack in Arcs with each PS3 Slim sold. 

" If Natal gets packed in with each new 360 and the PS3 Arc remains something each customer has to buy separately (like a headset!) then Natal will be the one that succeeds despite the Arc being a more precise devise.  Chances are by this time next year (or even this Christmas) every 360 will come with a Natal and that will mean developers will know that there is an expanding customer base for their Natal games.  I think both are gimmicks, but you ask which has the better chance at success and that's my answer.  Sadly, Sony doesn't have much of a history in this area, so I doubt they will pack in Arcs with each PS3 Slim sold.  "

im going with sony's controller for sure. that thing is excellent dude. its soooo accurate, the tech demos are ridiculous, i cant imagine how great games will use this: check out this gif, its accurate as fucking hell man! its awesome: 

" @PenguinDust said:

" If Natal gets packed in with each new 360 and the PS3 Arc remains something each customer has to buy separately (like a headset!) then Natal will be the one that succeeds despite the Arc being a more precise devise.  Chances are by this time next year (or even this Christmas) every 360 will come with a Natal and that will mean developers will know that there is an expanding customer base for their Natal games.  I think both are gimmicks, but you ask which has the better chance at success and that's my answer.  Sadly, Sony doesn't have much of a history in this area, so I doubt they will pack in Arcs with each PS3 Slim sold.  "

The problem is that pretty much everyone who wants a 360 already has one and most sales are to replace dead ones (yeah, I said it).  With an install base at already 30 million and a new system approaching soon, I am sceptical about Natal.  If Sony doesn't include a controller in all new systems, I agree it will struggle, but the PS3 has a much better lifespan ahead of it than the 360, so maybe it could do well, but the games need to be better than those that came with Eye-Toy.  They should have waited for a completely new system instead of playing catch up. "

Sales-wise:  Natal for sure, everyone I know who's seen the presentation for Natal immediately said, I want one.
Personally:  I dont really care about the Arc  (sorry)  I already own a Wii, and nothing about the Arc seems that special.   But the Natal seems more unique, even if it doesn't have that level of accuracy, and if it cheats to pretend it does, im still stoked.

" Sales-wise:  Natal for sure, everyone I know who's seen the presentation for Natal immediately said, I want one.Personally:  I dont really care about the Arc  (sorry)  I already own a Wii, and nothing about the Arc seems that special.   But the Natal seems more unique, even if it doesn't have that level of accuracy, and if it cheats to pretend it does, im still stoked. "

i would say natal since more people have xbox 360. i just hope that there is actual support for the motion controls like when wii first came out there were just trashy games out for it. the only great games were the exclusives that nintendo knew how to make.

" @TwoOneFive: Full video here (via John Ricciardi's twitter).  It's so crazy, that is nothing like the webcam games we were playing in middle school around the years 2000-2001. "

nobody's going to buy the arc. sorry sony fans, it's just got no hook to it whatsoever. you can't say with any intellectual honesty that natal isn't the more novel concept.
i guess the argument is that the arc would be more practical? or something? except that motion controls aren't actually designe to make games more fun. they're just some flashy tech designed to lure in people who aren't already 'gamers'.
so all that really matters is: who's got the more intriguing tech, and obviously the sony version of the wiimote isn't going to be the tech story on the evening news. natal -- even though it will make you look and feel like a knob using it -- is an impressive technological feat at least.  
but whatever, sony fanboys will be sony fanboys. i hope they really are committed to pretending the arc is cool. at least sony will make a little bit of their r&d money back on these goons buying arc just to stick it to micro$$$$$oft

" nobody's going to buy the arc. sorry sony fans, it's just got no hook to it whatsoever. you can't say with any intellectual honesty that natal isn't the more novel concept.
i guess the argument is that the arc would be more practical? or something? except that motion controls aren't actually designe to make games more fun. they're just some flashy tech designed to lure in people who aren't already 'gamers'.
so all that really matters is: who's got the more intriguing tech, and obviously the sony version of the wiimote isn't going to be the tech story on the evening news. natal -- even though it will make you look and feel like a knob using it -- is an impressive technological feat at least.  
but whatever, sony fanboys will be sony fanboys. i hope they really are committed to pretending the arc is cool. at least sony will make a little bit of their r&d money back on these goons buying arc just to stick it to micro$$$$$oft "

I'd say natal will be more successful sales/financially wise, but sony's could be a lot cooler. Something about natal just seems like a huge gimmick, i can't see myself playing games like that at all, and the only first party developer MS really has that i could see making games for it is Rare. On the other hand, the responisveness of sony's, and from the tech demo's they've shown it looks like they could actually get something good out of it. Especially because they have so many good first party studios that could make something for it.

Wow.....
I haven't bothered looking into either until now, But this video has so much potential,
I may have to buy a PS3 after all. 

The Wii is just too far ahead of everyone at this point so any chance of Microsoft or Sony to catch up in this department will have to happen next generation. Taking the Wii out of the equation, Sony's approach is just more approachable and practical. Natal might end up being, dare I say it, a gimmick.

they all suck but sony's is the most technically impressive.

I say natal because it is different. Playstation move is just wii hd basically... but really crappy games from what they have shown

I don't have any interest in playing a FPS by aiming a wand at a screen.  If I was interested in something like that, I would have bought a wii three years ago.  I'm more interested in the subtle things Natal can do, like voice commands, interface stuff, and the fact it has the possibility of doing much more than just being a super sensitive wiimote.   

" im going with sony's controller for sure. that thing is excellent dude. its soooo accurate, the tech demos are ridiculous, i cant imagine how great games will use this: check out this gif, its accurate as fucking hell man! its awesome: 

  versus natal: 

   I think its obvious Sony has the right idea here, whereas MS was showing people talking to a little boy for no fucking reason.  and then some celebrities that clearly ARE NOT gamers (like sugar ray leonard, yeah ill take his word on what the future of gaming is!) playing a racing game where you hold your hands out playing air-race-car-driver. lame as balls.  "

In all honesty, it's going to depend 100% on the third-party support. Look at what happened with the Playstation Eye (which they're giving another chance to with the Move business) and the Xbox Vision Camera. They each had low support (and next to no support from third-party developers), so they now just sit at Gamestop counters, collecting dust.  
 
Technically, the 360 has a bigger userbase, which theoretically means a larger amount of people that they can sell Natal to. But it absolutely won't matter if there are no compelling games to motivate gamers to buy the equipment and use it for more than a week. Hell, the Wii is selling well, but most games not published/developed by Nintendo are disappointing at the registers- this is causing more companies to stay away from that platform.  
 
At this point, I can't say which one will come out on top. Out of convenience sake, I would say Natal, just because it's rumored to be cheaper than the Move ($80 compared to the supposed sub-$100 price for the latter), the 360 has a bigger userbase and it's easier to sell one piece of equipment than three pieces of tech (the Move controller, the extra "nunchuk" thing and the Playstation Eye are all used together). But both controllers have an uphill battle.

Sony Move will fail miserably. Natal will do slightly better but not great. Motion controls are dumb.

Natal if they market as a fitness device and get regular 'Home Shopping Network' slots, both will scare 3rd party developers (wasting resources on learning the tech properly) and that will cause them to die.
 
Sony couldn't do anything with EyeToy when they were the causal leader with the PS2.

You can't judge on something that isn't out yet.

"but whatever, sony fanboys will be sony fanboys. i hope they really are committed to pretending the arc is cool. at least sony will make a little bit of their r&d money back on these goons buying arc just to stick it to micro$$$$$oft "

" @chrissedoff said:

" nobody's going to buy the arc. sorry sony fans, it's just got no hook to it whatsoever. you can't say with any intellectual honesty that natal isn't the more novel concept.
i guess the argument is that the arc would be more practical? or something? except that motion controls aren't actually designe to make games more fun. they're just some flashy tech designed to lure in people who aren't already 'gamers'.
so all that really matters is: who's got the more intriguing tech, and obviously the sony version of the wiimote isn't going to be the tech story on the evening news. natal -- even though it will make you look and feel like a knob using it -- is an impressive technological feat at least.  
but whatever, sony fanboys will be sony fanboys. i hope they really are committed to pretending the arc is cool. at least sony will make a little bit of their r&d money back on these goons buying arc just to stick it to micro$$$$$oft "

you cant honestly sit there and say natal is a novel concept.  and your theory on motion controls is shit.  games like wii-bowling wouldnt be fun at all with out the motion controls, and with them it is a very fun game to play with friends.  "  

" You can't judge on something that isn't out yet. "

Sony. Their motion control is actually rooted in reality. It has buttons, and it's set up so that it actually works. Natal is a lot more pie-in-the-sky. Sony's effort looks infinitely better than what I expected, and for the first time in my life, I am legitimately excited about the prospect of some good motion control games.

Issue is mostly third party support and how they will innovate with this.
  
On the basis that both techs get the same support, Natal will get casual acceptance. PSMove has more potential in the gamer market IMO because of precision, functionality and pricing.
 
If both only get Shovelware and rarely anything "juicy"... Natal will win IMO.

I think because of the buy-in cost, Natal has a much better shot of doing well. It's one device compared to 9.

Depends on if MS comes up with a controller counterpart to Natal. Natal by itself isn't the future of gaming by any means.
 
Sony's Move had potential, back when it could have had the full controller layout between two hands. But it doesn't even have an analog stick on the main controller... so nope.

And one thing i bet almost everyone, especially fanboys have forgot, Natal can scan objects and use them as interface.  
 
So instead of a wand that supposedly is a riffle, you can scan a toy riffle and have it work with your game. Why do you want a controller when you can use a flexible interface that can become what you need at anytime, even a controller? 
 
If you scan a controller, in theory it can interpret the controller.    
 
If Natal delivers, it will blow all other motion controllers out of the water.
 
That's why i can't really see what's so amazing about Move. 
 

The Wii already won.

I'd think that the Natal will fare well with the casual audience while the Move, though more technically in-line with what it's expected to do, will experience less support.  Somehow, I can picture the Natal the first time I played the Wii, using the Wii-mote, me exaggerated my movements in an attempt to be more effective at what is displayed on the screen when really all you need to do is flick your wrist.  Of course, not exactly how you'd expect yourself to play with the Natal, but something more along the line of me just lazily waving my hand at things and whatnot to do things.

" @TwoOneFive said:

" im going with sony's controller for sure. that thing is excellent dude. its soooo accurate, the tech demos are ridiculous, i cant imagine how great games will use this: check out this gif, its accurate as fucking hell man! its awesome: 

  versus natal: 

   I think its obvious Sony has the right idea here, whereas MS was showing people talking to a little boy for no fucking reason.  and then some celebrities that clearly ARE NOT gamers (like sugar ray leonard, yeah ill take his word on what the future of gaming is!) playing a racing game where you hold your hands out playing air-race-car-driver. lame as balls.  "

1: Shot in a lab.  No surrounding lights or motion noise. You never know how many times they tried this to get the perfect shot. 2: Shot at a LIve Lauch with flash cameras going off, people thronging around the stage and lots of background motion noise.  Also, Sony's controller looks ugly as sin. "

" And one thing i bet almost everyone, especially fanboys have forgot, Natal can scan objects and use them as interface.  
 
So instead of a wand that supposedly is a riffle, you can scan a toy riffle and have it work with your game. Why do you want a controller when you can use a flexible interface that can become what you need at anytime, even a controller? 
 
If you scan a controller, in theory it can interpret the controller.    
 
If Natal delivers, it will blow all other motion controllers out of the water.
 
That's why i can't really see what's so amazing about Move. 
 

"

" @TwoOneFive:   True the commercial is not a vision of what they want to make with it. But they made a live demo, and it was shown at work, with real games also, at the same summit sony showed move for the first time.   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-443dE5-gk    And there are a lot of serious work on Natal, so i'm confident it will do what they've showed, at will be great!  "