When Will Have the Tech to Leave the Solar System?

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mathewballard

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#1  Edited By mathewballard

Today President Obama said that he wanted us to be able to reach and orbit Mars by 2035. 
 
With that being said, when do you think we will have the technology to leave the solar system and sustain life? Right now there is tech being created that would allow a space shuttle/ship to reach Mars in 39 days. Until that gets perfected, there is no way we could even think about reaching the edge of the solar system in a decent amount of time, let alone Mars. 
 
So, what do you think? Do you think we will even be close to a Mass Effect kind of future in our lifetimes?

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meteora

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#2  Edited By meteora

Its likely that we'll get to Mars at some point in our life time; given if there is no apolcaplyse in 2012. A question of exactly when is unknown. 2030-2050 sounds like a reasonable date for us to reach to Mars, not like there's really much for us to do there other than set up a scientific colony.
 
Reaching Mass Effect level of technology is probably impossible. We'll have to hope that when we die we'll be born as new babies in that setting. I'm keeping my fingers crossed, I would absolutely adore being in outerspace. Its just so gorgeous outside.

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Hailinel

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#3  Edited By Hailinel

Technically, haven't some of our earlier probes already left?

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AltonBrown

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#4  Edited By AltonBrown
@bizsumpark182: As an astronomer-in-training, I have to say that President Obama's predictions seem entirely reasonable. However, FTL travel is either purely theoretical or impossible, depending on what theories you subscribe to. Barring radical scientific advancement from an outside source (which is what happened in Mass Effect, mind you), we wont be seeing FTL travel for hundreds if not thousands of years.
 
@Meteora: 2012 apocalypse is bunk. There's also lots of potential for colonisation on Mars. Given that we know that Mars contains some amount of water, it stands to reason that Mars either has the potential or at one time did support life.
 
@Hailinel said:
" Technically, haven't some of our earlier probes already left? "

Probes were launched towards the outer planets of the solar system in the last decade or two. However, the space between galaxies is so large that even if a probe were to find relevant information, it would take hundreds of years for us to receive the information.
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meteora

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#5  Edited By meteora
@Hailinel said:

" Technically, haven't some of our earlier probes already left? "

Yeah, we have four probes out there. Voyage 1 and 2; Pionner 10 and 11.
 
Though those crafts took literally more than a decade to leave the solar system. The closest system is more than 4 light years away. That's light YEARS. Its gonna be helluva long of a trip.
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meteora

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#6  Edited By meteora
@AltonBrown said:
 @Meteora: 2012 apocalypse is bunk. There's also lots of potential for colonisation on Mars. Given that we know that Mars contains some amount of water, it stands to reason that Mars either has the potential or at one time did support life.
 
@Hailinel said:
" Technically, haven't some of our earlier probes already left? "
Probes were launched towards the outer planets of the solar system in the last decade or two. However, the space between galaxies is so large that even if a probe were to find relevant information, it would take hundreds of years for us to receive the information. "
Hey I'm just voicing out a popular voice that we'll die out in 2012. I didn't mean it seriously. Like I really don't see any real immediate dangers that would kill us all on that year, other than the stupid magnetif fields switching off for a bit before reversing the poles. But that discussion is for another day.
 
I know there's lots of potential for colonisation on Mars. Much more than Mercury or god forbidden Venus. I was trying to point out that its unlikely we'll be able to inhabit the colony in numbers more than a hundred for at least a few more decades after 2030 or so. Sorry if I was not being specific enough.
 
And yes you have a point on the probes taking forever to send messages back home. To futher reinforce your message, the power supply is limited on probes. We've already lost contact with Pioneer 10 and 11; it won't be too long before the Voyagers suffer from the same fate in a few decades.
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zanzibarbreeze

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#7  Edited By zanzibarbreeze
@bizsumpark182: Are you referring to humans leaving our solar system? Because our satellites have already surpassed our solar system, as far as I understand. As for humans passing the outer edges of our solar system... that's going to take a very long time. I'd say the 2200s or the 2300s. All it takes is one breakthrough, but we're nowhere near even heading back to the moon, let alone other planets. It's too hard to protect our astronauts out there because effective protection weighs too much and costs too much - against the sun's radiation, against space junk, against a myriad of other factors. It is very, very dangerous out there right now, and it's not for man to travel there yet.
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Locky

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#8  Edited By Locky

I'm really hoping we can get a working space elevator within the next couple of decades. It'll be the quickest way for the common man, such as you and I, to be able to go to space. Without it, we're constantly throwing away resources every time we sent a shuttle up through the atmosphere.

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zanzibarbreeze

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#9  Edited By zanzibarbreeze
@Locky said:
" I'm really hoping we can get a working space elevator within the next couple of decades. It'll be the quickest way for the common man, such as you and I, to be able to go to space. Without it, we're constantly throwing away resources every time we sent a shuttle up through the atmosphere. "
And all it'll take is one rock a few feet across to cut through the whole thing. :)
 
I guess that'll be possible as soon as we can find a way to get some goddamned heavy duty materials out of the earth and up there. Unless you want to wait for nanotechnology and something like nano carbon tubes. Unfortunately, these things take a long time. I feel ya, man.
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mathewballard

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#10  Edited By mathewballard
@ZanzibarBreeze: When I was saying "we" I did mean people. 
 
Yes, it is dangerous out there, that is why we would have to have something like an electromagnetic field outside of the space shuttle to protect them from solar blast. But, that and shortening the time it would take the travel are the two things holding us back. 
 
As for the moon, we could go back there tomorrow with the tech we have. But, there really isn't much reason for humans to go back to the moon.
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ArchScabby

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#11  Edited By ArchScabby

tomorrow I would assume.

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Locky

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#12  Edited By Locky
@bizsumpark182: Lunar Amusement Park, ala Futurama.
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Xeiphyer

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#13  Edited By Xeiphyer
@Hailinel said:
" Technically, haven't some of our earlier probes already left? "
Hell yeah, they are wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy gone. The Voyager 1 passed the outermost planet in the solar system 20 years ago. It was launched 43 ish years ago, so you gotta figure its really fucking out there =P
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zanzibarbreeze

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#14  Edited By zanzibarbreeze
@bizsumpark182 said:
" As for the moon, we could go back there tomorrow with the tech we have. But, there really isn't much reason for humans to go back to the moon. "
Maybe, but we don't have the money. And again, I'm skeptical about our ability to protect our astronauts out there (though I don't work at NASA, I don't know what they're doing). The Apollo missions were crazy. They would never be okayed today if we were to use equal technology. The lack of safety was insane. :) But I love the story of Apollo 13. If anything, that team was lucky, not unlucky. I heard somewhere (maybe from Phil Plait) that there was a solar flare a couple of days after those guys came down. They would have been on the moon if everything had went right. They would have been dead.
 
And even if they'd survived that solar flare, they wouldn't have been able to get back. There was a chance that the faulty wiring may not have caused an explosion; it may have just fizzled out, which would have meant that they would have been stranded up there. If anything, as I say, they were some of the luckiest men alive.

In other words, I shall never become an astronaut.
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DCFGS3

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#15  Edited By DCFGS3

Personally I don't see us using spacecraft to travel to different stars, ftl travel is simply too complex. Having said that, the use of wormholes could well be in our grasp, provided we simply work out the physics behind it. Artificial wormholes will be the future of space travel, and what's more we have the resources to make them now, we simply don't have the theory.

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Hourai

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#16  Edited By Hourai

As far as leaving the solar system goes, several probes are already out there. If we're talking humans, I doubt we'll see anything within our lifetimes. 
 
And if you're talking other systems, well, Voyager 1 would take about 30,000 years (rough estimate) to reach the nearest star. I don't think humanity will even exist by then.

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Time_Lord

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#17  Edited By Time_Lord

2235 im calling it

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#18  Edited By Kyreo

400 Years max.  We won't start space travel until we, as a race, are content with the level of colonization of the inhabitable planets in this Solar System.  

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meteora

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#19  Edited By meteora
@Kyreo said:

" 400 Years max.  We won't start space travel until we, as a race, are content with the level of colonization of the inhabitable planets in this Solar System.   "

Don't forget about the countless of moons on Jupiter, Saturn and the few on Uranus and Neptune. =P
 
I mean christ Europa sounds like a promising place to colonize...
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#20  Edited By veektarius
@Meteora: I was interested in the popular idea of colonizing Europa and how that was treated in Mass Effect.  Interestingly, those writers say that colonization of Jupiter's moons is untenable because of the radiation Jupiter itself puts out.  I'm not astrophysicist but it seems plausible.
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asurastrike

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#21  Edited By asurastrike
@bizsumpark182 said:
" Today President Obama said that he wanted us to be able to reach and orbit Mars by 2035.  With that being said, when do you think we will have the technology to leave the solar system and sustain life? Right now there is tech being created that would allow a space shuttle/ship to reach Mars in 39 days. Until that gets perfected, there is no way we could even think about reaching the edge of the solar system in a decent amount of time, let alone Mars.  So, what do you think? Do you think we will even be close to a Mass Effect kind of future in our lifetimes? "
If we get out of our solar system by the year 3000 I will be amazed. Shit is big.
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#22  Edited By me3639

How do you know we havent been to mars, or other planets already?

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meteora

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#23  Edited By meteora
@Veektarius: The writers are correct, scientists believes that is the vast amount of radiation from Jupiter would be fatal to humans on Europa without significant shielding. It is possible that they could colonize underneath the ice surface so it shields them from the radiation. They could use the geothermic energy of Europa to supply the power to the colony. Of course the only problem is being able to build the colony in the first place; underwater. We'd need to try doing that a few times on Earth before we attempt do pull off anything on Europa.
 
Not sure if there's any other moons that are plasubile candidates for colonization. I think the chances on Titan are pretty good judging from the information we got from our previous probes.
 
I'm totally stoked about the future. I want to be reincarinated as a baby in the future. =P
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Alex_Murphy

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#24  Edited By Alex_Murphy

I think we have the technology now, but it would just take so long the people might die of old age before they get there.

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deactivated-5b43dadb9061b

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@Alex_Murphy: Or you know, run out of air and food, those kinds of things.
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#26  Edited By Bones8677

Yep Titan, Europa and Mars are the most likely candidates for terraforming for Human Colonization. Now if we can just introduce an Ice asteroid to the Martian Atmosphere, some say Jupiter has some we can hijack. 
 
Now we have to build a ship that can transport a fucking asteroid large enough to create an atmosphere of an entire planet! 
 
Very scary thinking about all the things that would need to be done in order to sustain Human life. Doubly so considering that none of it is proven.

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turbomonkey138

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#27  Edited By turbomonkey138
@Time_Lord said:
" 2235 im calling it "
I'm going to freeze myself and wake up at that date and see if your right ...
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#28  Edited By Alex_Murphy
@EveretteScott said:
" @Alex_Murphy: Or you know, run out of air and food, those kinds of things. "
lol, yea that's probably something that would have to be solved first.
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#29  Edited By ArcLyte

realistically we don't need to think about leaving the earth anytime soon as we'll be able to exploit Earth's fossil fuel resources for another 200-300 years through the use of the Bakken Formation (google it) and there is absolutely no reason to leave the solar system until we have achieved FTL travel, because, let's face it, a light year is a long way and there are thousands of them between us and the nearest star, and i don't mean the sun.

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meteora

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#30  Edited By meteora
@Bones8677 said:
" Yep Titan, Europa and Mars are the most likely candidates for terraforming for Human Colonization. Now if we can just introduce an Ice asteroid to the Martian Atmosphere, some say Jupiter has some we can hijack.   Now we have to build a ship that can transport a fucking asteroid large enough to create an atmosphere of an entire planet!   Very scary thinking about all the things that would need to be done in order to sustain Human life. Doubly so considering that none of it is proven. "
I don't think a single asteriod could create a atmosphere. Normally you get atmosphere from volcanic activity, don't you?
 
If we wanted to bring an asteriod to Mars, I suppose we could launch a probe that carried some nuclear warheads and fire them at the asteriod to blast it out from its orbit, and hopefully fly into Mars with the mathematical calculations involved. Of course I'm sure there will be some initial concerns that we'd use them to blast away the Chinese or Russians or something. =P
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#31  Edited By nietzsche7

I suspect once we colonize the solar system we will send out a colony ship that would likely be at a percentage of the speed of light. Something like a 100 years to reach a different solar system. This is all theory but the speed of research is improving faster than what practical things allow. For instances if we decide to colonize Mars at our technology level it would take a 1000 years or so. However about 2 decades ago that thought was entirely fictional. In a few decades the idea of colonizing Mars might be doable in 500 years and a few decades after that it would take a lifetime. So I would take any estimate with a grain of salt because future tech is something that is highly unpredictable. With in a few years from analogue we have gone to a digital medium in most of our stuff in a nanosecond if we look at the past's timeline.

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#32  Edited By ninjakiller

I'd say 200+ years realistically to do it in a way where we can go outside our solar system then return within a reasonable amount of time (under 2 years).  If we're talking just going outside of the solar system not caring about a speedy return (any trip outside and back taking longer than 2 years) 60 years.
 
Ungh that sounds confusing.
 
@ArcLyte:   Ungh oil shale?  Dude that's a fucking pipe dream.  Not to mention that it'll turn the entire region into a carcinogenic spewing open wound.

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zanzibarbreeze

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#33  Edited By zanzibarbreeze

Traveling at the speed of light still doesn't prevent you from crashing into shit that might be in your path. I love how every film, book, and TV show of all time ignores this. I'd love footage of a speed of light crash with a ship and a meteoroid. I imagine there'd just be one blip of light and that would be it.

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blaze503

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#34  Edited By blaze503

Space travel will be something that happens rapidly in my view, The time in which it will occur is more complicated but as it stands our technology needs to advance significantly. Our ability to travel through space likely hinges on an entirely new type of tech. I am currently doing a Physics degree and as i understand it space travel outside of our solar system is very complex, essentially we need a way to get close to the speed of light and our current method of creating large explosions to propel ourselves is simply not effeicient and frankly slow.
 
Within the next 100 years we will be able to go all around our solar system just by refining what we have of that i have no doubt, but to go outside the solar system will require new tech and once that is invented the process will be rapid in my opinion.

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#35  Edited By dan168

when you say the solar system do you mean outside the oort cloud? i'm gunna assume it'll be near 3000ish because its not only the great distance your moving.... which is HUGE but your dealing with lack of gravity for long periods of time, solar flares, solar radiation, uncatalogued asteroids or comets, there has to be a way to warp first probably. considering the only human landing site was the moon which is the closest planetary body... also extrasolar planets... we know hardly anything about them... the only way we can find them is thru radial velocity, gravitational lensing, if the planet crosses the front of the star or direct imaging. 
 
it'll take the pluto express... 9 years to get to pluto... pluto is like 39 AU away from the sun?? i think... the oort cloud is up to 5000 AU... out of our solar system... i have no clue how far that is... but just getting out will take along time... 
 
reason why i have this all in my head is.......... i'm taking a class on the the creation of the solar system at my university and finals... are in less then a week ahaha

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sodiumCyclops

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#36  Edited By sodiumCyclops

I wont care about any space travel until we get FTL drives.
 
It's basically pointless without it.

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dan168

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#37  Edited By dan168
@Veektarius: yeah jupiters megnetic field is 20,000 the earths. that plus europa is suspected to be ice on its top layer than an entire ocean underneath before you hit a silicate mantle and finally the iron core.
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meteora

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#38  Edited By meteora
@ZanzibarBreeze said:

" Traveling at the speed of light still doesn't prevent you from crashing into shit that might be in your path. I love how every film, book, and TV show of all time ignores this. I'd love footage of a speed of light crash with a ship and a meteoroid. I imagine there'd just be one blip of light and that would be it. "

Yeah man. The International Space Station always gets hit by space debris oribiting around Earth and that fucks around with their solar panels and shit. These debris aren't really traveling all that quick, maybe a few hundred miles per hour? Now imagine hitting even a small object at the speed of light or faster. It would be total catastrophe.
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#39  Edited By Savage
@Meteora: 
 
There's roughly a half-million pieces of debris in Earth orbit larger than 1 cm, all traveling at an average of 22,000 miles per hour.  Satellites, space craft, and the ISS get hit by that stuff pretty routinely and risk serious damage.  The ISS, at least, has shielding on its critical areas to blunt the impact of the smaller, untrackable debris and the station is boosted out of the path of the larger pieces that can be seen coming. 
 
That said, the space between stars is way, way more empty than our planet's orbital landfill, so it just might be statistically safe (enough) to blaze from star system to star system at near light speed...  Though, at over 600 million miles per hour, all it would take is one bug on the windshield to put a (spectacular) end to that trip.

P.S. Here's a little info from NASA about micro-impactors.  Check out the small video at the bottom to see the slow-motion impact of a relatively tiny 0.6 cm object at realistic Earth orbital speeds.  Imagine that times 30,000.
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natetodamax

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#40  Edited By natetodamax

Why hasn't anyone mentioned New Horizons? It's the probe that's on its way to Pluto right now. Once it reaches Pluto it will continue forward and leave the Solar System in 2029.. I wrote about it on the Pluto page.

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TomWhitbrook

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#41  Edited By TomWhitbrook
@Bones8677 said:
" Yep Titan, Europa and Mars are the most likely candidates for terraforming for Human Colonization. Now if we can just introduce an Ice asteroid to the Martian Atmosphere, some say Jupiter has some we can hijack.   Now we have to build a ship that can transport a fucking asteroid large enough to create an atmosphere of an entire planet!   Very scary thinking about all the things that would need to be done in order to sustain Human life. Doubly so considering that none of it is proven. "
Well, you wouldn't just get one asteroid, and you wouldn't use a ship either. You'd use fairly simple rocket boosters to set the asteroid on an appropriate course, and Robert is the brother of one of your parents. 
For those who are interested in an easily digested but fascinating set of ideas on this general topic, I heartily endorse the GURPS: Transhuman Space line of books. Yes, alright, they are roleplaying game books, but the information contained therein is a pretty realistic assessment of our near future deriving from a variety of sources, helpfully listed for your own further exploration, and provides an interesting set of possibilities for how the future of man might well go down. Anyone else read these, or am I just the saddest nerd in the room?
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Jeust

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#42  Edited By Jeust

Possibly never, since like previous posters said it's still faraway, and it's far more likely that we will reach a human cataclysm in the years before the possible discovery of those technologies. There are far more important realities, than space faring, and those, as life is going, are probably going to weight down and make traversing beyond the solar system impossible.  
 
No Mass Effect or Star Wars beyond fiction possibly.

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singular

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#43  Edited By singular

As long as we, as a race, fight and compete among ourselves for the supremacy of making the most money, we won't go anywhere.
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#44  Edited By TomWhitbrook
@SinGulaR said:
" As long as we, as a race, fight and compete among ourselves for the supremacy of making the most money, we won't go anywhere. "
I understand the ideological basis behind this comment, but I don't feel it really displays an accurate grasp of human history. Competition drives man and has always done so. It's what got the space race going in the first place.
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#45  Edited By singular
@Linkyshinks said:
" @TomWhitbrook said:
" @SinGulaR said:
" As long as we, as a race, fight and compete among ourselves for the supremacy of making the most money, we won't go anywhere. "
I understand the ideological basis behind this comment, but I don't feel it really displays an accurate grasp of human history. Competition drives man and has always done so. It's what got the space race going in the first place. "
 Sadly, your right. History has shown us the most productive spurts of technological innovation have been in times of war or turmoil. However, there needs to be a better way, because SinGular is right also. Until we as a species work collectively with common goals, this system we have at present, will only lead to us to the brink as a species. Our environment wont be able to capacitate all that we may need to do one day. That's the sad reality. The biggest irony of all is that population growth is destined to be our closest downfall as a species, creation itself going to be our downfall as things stand now. You only have to look at the figures and consider the ramifications to know that a whole lot of shit is heading our way. Wide spread ramifications that make for painful thought, maybe not for you, but certainly for your children and their children. There are far too many people that think that harnessing the clean energy will give us all that we need, that it will propel us into a new age of mankind. I can see that happening, but not without further turmoil in an age when the stakes are even higher.  "

And competition won't bring us any farther as a race. It's true that it gave incentive to those who probably wouldn't have any of it otherwise but it costs more resources than the human race could afford on the long run. It's just a logical fact that cooperation brings one farther than competition.
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DEllen

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#46  Edited By DEllen
@Linkyshinks: I do not think that population growth will be as large of a problem as is thought. The Malthus Theory from the 1800s stated that we would run out of food and resources within a few generations, the theory was produced with precise mathematics. However it was soon proved wrong as the ingenuity of man kind was not taken in to account. With the industrial revolution came new ways of gathering food and resources.  
Doomsday predictions today may not be taking in to account how innovative mankind can be. It may take a few technological leaps to get there, but along the way more time can be bought by other advancements. 
 
Back on topic to space travel. I do not think that space travel will be viable until we find the way to bend space allowing for us to jump between places. Similar to folding paper. Two points at opposite edges on a piece of paper are at a distance form each other, if this paper is folded so that the paper forms a circle the two points are at a much smaller distance. This is the only way I can see space travel becoming a speed that is viable as lightspeed is far too slow for large scale exploration.
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penguindust

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#47  Edited By penguindust

I firmly believe that the only way we are ever going to make any real progress in the conquest of space is through the private sector.  Government funded agencies are just too vulnerable to the whims of politics and the yearly federal budgets (not only in the US).  We were supposed to be back on the moon by 2025 and now we're supposed to be on Mars by 2035?  Neither will happen as administrations change and new department heads are positioned every few years.  The private sector, big business, is going to have to find a way to profit from space and that's how progress with be achieved.  We won't get out of the solar system in my lifetime and probably none of yours, but maybe in the lifetime of your children.  I'm going to guess and say somewhere around the turn of the next century, 2100 AD.   That being said, I don't think we'll go far until we come up with a way around the speed of light.  Kind of like walking to where the beach meets the ocean, we'll skirt along the edge of the solar system, wade into the water if you will, but be unable to swim out because we don't have a boat able to make the journey to other stars.  I can't even begin to figure out when humanity will circumvent the laws of physics as we currently understand them.

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nail1080

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#48  Edited By nail1080

As long as there is religion and delusion in the world, we'll just keep killing eachother until there's no one left.

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halberdierv2

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#49  Edited By halberdierv2

we need to make/find a perpetual fuel, and utilise it. also, the ability to travel faster than light or to manipulate wormholes would be useful.. because with what we have, we aint leaving here anytime soon... it takes 248 years for light to reach Pluto alone!

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#50  Edited By Geno

Heh, I read a National Geographic a few years ago (2002-2003 maybe) that said we would be making a  manned voyage to Mars in 2009-2010. Oh Bush, you did so much for your country. 
 
I don't think we'll be making manned voyages outside of our Solar System anytime soon, certainly not within our lifetimes or even within the next few lifetimes of humans. There's just nothing there. First we need to find a planet that is almost completely identical to earth in atmosphere, gravity, proximity to radiation, containment of life sustaining resources etc. which is a feat by itself almost impossible. Then we would need the technology to get there, which at the moment an inkling of how to transfer humans at close to light speed is beyond the grasp of even the smartest minds using the most powerful technologies. Then if you're talking about aliens as well (on a level in which they are not too superior or too inferior to us), the odds are simply pushed infinitely high against this scenario's favor.