PS3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in sales a year from now?

Seems to be creeping up in units at a pretty consistent rate.  It was like 10 million units behind a year ago, and now its only 4.3 million behind.

Xbox 360 -  40 million - Been out for 5 years 

PlayStation 3 -  35.7 million - Been out for 4 years     
 
Unless Natal is a success the PS3 is going to edge out in sales at some point?    

Uhhh and I care because? Am I going to get a cash prize if PS3 pulls ahead or something?

Close a 4.3 million unit gap in one year in this economy? Unlikely.

After a very successful 2009, and seeming to continue that trend in 2010, I wouldn't be very surprised if that were the case. 

Not with the way Sony can't keep up with the demand by actually, you know, producing the damn things.

  I hope ps3 sales continue to do well so devs have to start doing a better job of porting games to ps3. It sucks that people who don't have both get lazy ports of games but until the numbers improve it will continue.

Only way this information should interest someone is if they are Sony investors or Biased idiots. 

all MS has to do is launch a 360 slim or lower the price of the current one to gain a sales boost, just like ps3 did a few months ago. your theory only works if the prices stayed as they are now, and we all know that's not happening

We all bash the new 3D trend but blu-ray movies sales are sky rocketing, 3D feature on  HDTV's are slowly becoming a standard (as a product) and the ps3 is the most obvious choice if you want to experience that and a lot of awesome first and second party exclusives.

The gap was made up primarily by increased sales from the PS3 slim, and those sales have begun to taper off. Sales might reach parity eventually, but only if Microsoft doesn't introduce a new form factor for the Xbox (which I think MS will do eventually). And it doesn't factor in the Move and Natal (or Wave, or whatever they're calling it). I think there are too many unknowns at this point to make a solid prediction. I do think that over time the sales will probably wind up roughly equal for both consoles. But it's so late in this generation that any benefit to having higher console sales is moot.
 
Either way, it doesn't matter much. The installed base of both consoles is high enough to sustain relatively expensive AAA exclusives, at least for the short term. So why does this even matter? Especially since, as others have pointed out, the Wii has left both in the dust in terms of console sales. The Wii is a great example of how winning the console sales race isn't quite the same as winning the overall battle. Wii sold a lot of consoles, but still can't sell games (unless they're first-party). This gen is looking like a three-way stalemate to me. Which just means that no matter what console you chose, you've pretty much won.
 
Just remember that in previous generations, the losing console (or consoles) tended to get left behind in terms of game development. That hasn't happened this time.

Wow people (ok not everyone) if you're not interested or not constructive just don't post. 
 
I am interested however. I personally think it's good to see an increase in the PS3. I have both systems and try not to be biased but I do prefer the PS3 in the long run. Though I find myself buying more multiplatform games on the xbox simply due to my group of friends. If more people I knew were buying PS3s then I'd certainly have more games on that and probably be happier for it too. Don't get me wrong, I love the xbox too, I just love the PS3 more.

Not that anyone of us should really care about the ''console wars'' but regardless of whether the PS3 overtakes the 360 Sony has still managed to go from topdog by a country mile to battling for 2nd place in the space of one generational cycle.

Healthy compeition is good, if one console was too far ahead then things would get sloppy.

Probally near their numbers at the end of the year, maybe not overtake, however really near.

I dont see why people care, 360 is a better system for me and many others but PS3 has a good ad campaign going and good exclusives coming out (finally) so ya their sales will go up. 

" The gap was made up primarily by increased sales from the PS3 slim, and those sales have begun to taper off. Sales might reach parity eventually, but only if Microsoft doesn't introduce a new form factor for the Xbox (which I think MS will do eventually).

Probably not.
 
Also, this year seems pretty weak for Sony.  Last year (and this Q1) were just insane, with all their big exclusives coming out.  But what do they have on tap for Q4 2010?  Killzone 3?  What else?  I guess we'll see at Electronic 3.

On a interesting side note I seem to remember some industry types thinking that the markets would be split this generation. With Japan and Europe being dominated by Sony and North America being dominated by Microsoft.  Now I haven't seen numbers by region for a while, but last time I did this seemed to be the case. So if Sony can make a run in NA, Microsoft may be a solid third place. But as has been pointed out both are healthy and getting killed by the Wii, so "winning" is less important to gamers than in the past. 
  
Natal, if priced at the rumored $150, will not be the shot in the arm that Mircosoft wants.  Anything over $99 is too much.

It'll be neck and neck like this for a while - but I think eventually when the next generation of systems come along, the PS3 will have a larger lead only due to Sony's approach to exclusivity, which'll be the true divider between the relatively identical systems. I think it's a smarter move to put money into first party development and ensured IP exclusivity like Sony have been doing with their recent titles; God of War 3, Heavy Rain, Uncharted etc. then to purchase it because as game development costs rise, third part developers are going to eventually release their games as multiplatform.

And this is why this discussion never works, because every time it comes up the PS3 fans flock in to discredit the 360 numbers with assumptions and rumours. I've never seen a discussion on this topic that didn't have at least a dozen posts about how inaccurate the 360 numbers "probably" are.

By the EOL of both consoles, I do see the PS3 outselling the 360. The gaming community at large have already made their purchases (by and large). Now there's "the rest" of the market. And to them, the PS3 does everything a 360 does for a comparable price - but also plays Bluray disks, has cheap storage, WiFi, free on-line access, and a powerful brand name for ex-gamers over the age of 20. There's also the pervasive fact that yet another Microsoft product crashes and breaks all the time. Just from my own experience, many people declined to purchase a next gen console because the 360 was shoddily manufactured and the PS3 was too expensive. Now that the cost of the PS3 is appropriate, they're buying them.
 
But who knows. There's so many factors to consider here. And at the end of the day it won't matter, because before we know it the next generation will be upon us. 
 
Not that that matters much. Shit, the PS2 still sells like a mother.

Who cares unless you work for one of those companies?

" But what do they have on tap for Q4 2010?  Killzone 3?  What else?  I guess we'll see at Electronic 3. "

I dont care what you beleive, it might not be this year but the PS3 will win the "console war". Dont let Sony do another price drop. Even 50 dollars off and sales will go thru the roof.

HAY GUYZ LETS FETISHIZE SALES LIKE IT MATTERS TO US!

" I dont care what you beleive, it might not be this year but the PS3 will win the "console war". Dont let Sony do another price drop. Even 50 dollars off and sales will go thru the roof. "

36.4 of Xbox 360 users bought a second 360 after their first one malfunctioned.  Even taken those numbers into account, the 360 still far outweighs the PS3 in sales.  Seriously, do the math.  It's true.

" 36.4 of Xbox 360 users bought a second 360 after their first one malfunctioned.

1.  I don't care.  I don't check VGchartz weekly and anticipate fucking sales numbers.
2.  As for this whole "omg u bought 3 360's"...the 360 has a three year warranty.  The majority of broken units would have been fixed under that warranty, not replaced with a newly purchased unit.  Also, look at multiplatform sales.  I guess millions of people bought extra copies of MW2 to duck tape on top of their broken Xbox's huh?  Oh...and of course no one has ever had their PS3 break and buy a new one...and no one bought a slim even though they already had a fat. >_>
3.  The 360 still has a huge lead over the PS3 in America, and it's very noticeable.  Considering that I live in America, I would rather play with my buds than Jason Lee across the Pacific or Samuel O'Reilly across the Atlantic.         

" 36.4 of Xbox 360 users bought a second 360 after their first one malfunctioned.  Even taken those numbers into account, the 360 still far outweighs the PS3 in sales.  Seriously, do the math.  It's true. "

" @Brodehouse said:

" But what do they have on tap for Q4 2010?  Killzone 3?  What else?  I guess we'll see at Electronic 3. "

The Last Guardian? "

" Probably not.  Also, this year seems pretty weak for Sony.  Last year (and this Q1) were just insane, with all their big exclusives coming out.  But what do they have on tap for Q4 2010?  Killzone 3?  What else?  I guess we'll see at Electronic 3. "

Awe look at the hamsters fingers.

Back on topic: What if Playstation move is a success? 

 @eclipsesis: It already is.

This news is fucking old. In fact, I was listening to a HotSpot from 2007 were Jeff Gerstmann says "Yeah, by 2010 there could definitly be more PS3's than 360's out there." The fact that we're STILL talking about this just means that Sony is gonna be late.

As someone that has purchased 2 360s and 1 PS3 I can somewhat help backup the statement that there is probably a higher percentage of 360s sold to the same person more than once.  BTW I personally prefer my PS3.

A 360 Slim would guarantee Microsoft staying in the lead.  
 
@LunarAura said:

" And don't forget like um the 360s break and stuff so most ppl bought more than 1 so really the PS3 is ahead if you count household console penetration instead of raw sales. "

~ 3,000  were bought by US government for super computer.

I'm sure that hot 10 dollar a month PSN will help. ;)

" @JB16:  360 fanboys will care.  "