There are some momentous things in life you remember in minute detail where you are and what you are doing when it happens.
9/11 was a day like that for me, so was the day I learned I was going to be an Uncle. Today is going to be one of those days for me and I suspect for many of us here.
I can't say that I knew the man or ever met him (although after consuming what feels like 1000+ hours of media with him in it it's hard not to feel like I do) but it doesn't take a genius to see the massive outpouring of support to see just how great and special Ryan really was.
4500+ comments on the Giant Bomb story, Traffic bursts that have brought the site down so many times it's taken me more than 8 hours to be able to post, Dozens of much better written blogs than mine her on Giant Bomb, Massive threads on Neogaf reddit and other gaming forums, Tribute articles from the biggest names in gaming media, mentions in national media such as Reuters & The New York Times and for awhile Many more that I'm sure I don't know about.
All for a guy who hosted a podcast about video games and random nonsense. On the outside looking in that seems insane. Significantly more famous people don't get anywhere near that kind of notice and especially not this kind of universal acclaim. But if you knew Ryan Davis or even know of him it makes total sense. The man was beloved for good reason.
Because this is a man who lived life the way it should be lived. He was totally unafraid to be himself and totally unafraid to express his feelings positive or negative in a way that very very few people ever do. WYSIWYG with Ryan. He was 100% genuine, if he thought you mispronounced "executable" in a really stupid way he'd let you know it (loudly), if he thought your shit was great you better believe he let you know it as well. But most of all he was fun. He loved to laugh and have a good time. His twitter is 100% full of things Ryan found amusing, and judging by the volume of his tweets Ryan was a very amused man.
The story of Giant Bomb's founding is a well known one now. But Ryan's role in its' founding is perhaps sometimes underlooked if such a thing is possible. Ryan in many ways I felt was the heart/engine of this place, you could really feel his true belief in Jeff and what these guys do. When he hosted podcasts it felt like he was not only hosting but pushing things forward. His feelings and respect for Jeff were palpable in his goodbye blog at gamespot
Would Jeff and the gang even with all their talent been able to pull the greatest comeback in gaming journalism without Ryan's supportive-ness and ebullient enthusiasm? I sincerely doubt it.
And that's the kind of man he seemed to be to those who knew him well from all accounts. Behind the larger than life personality and barbed wit was also a kind, welcoming and loyally steadfast man.
Looking in from the outside he was the validation, the believer that gave Jeff and the rest the resolve to take the risk and be themselves in a way that made them who they are. To cut loose and fuckin go for it. He was the enabler of awesome.
He was the tastemaster, if he liked something it became a thing here. In many ways he subtly set the tone and tenor of the place that became Giant Bomb's community. He was the alpha of energy, his laugh was so infectious that any who heard couldn't help but smile. And when he hated something, somehow his jovial way of doing so also you made you smile. There was no malice in the man. But most of all you couldn't help but enjoy Tuesday nights, when his familiar baritone announced the beginning of three hours playful verbal riffing in the best podcast known to mankind.
Ryan is gone now, but it's us who is our poorer off for it, not him. He S-ranked the time he had here on Earth. I have no doubt he would have preferred to have had more, but what he did have, he lived to the fullest.
Boldness encouraged, Accuracy & explanations not required
Now that E3 is nearly here and the consoles have been revealed but not completely revealed, it is the perfect time to make predictions. We know just enough to make some fun guesses, but not enough to really completely discount anything.
So look into your crystal balls and let loose your mad theories here Giant Bomb!
The theme of this gen will be fragmentation and contraction. Gaming will ultimately be stronger and healthier once we reach the other side of this gen but getting there will be rough.
Each platform will siphon off segments of the gaming population to the point that none will “win”. Xbox will take the mass market, Sony will take the old time console hardcore, Nintendo will reposition the Wiiu as a kid’s toy and take the kids market enough to save the company, Steam and other PC platforms will take the future as they bridge the gap to TV. The Ouya will be a forgotten oddity in a few years like the N-Gage and the 3D0.
But what is unusual this time is that fewer gamers double dip on multiple consoles, which causes them all to struggle (Save for Steam) like they haven't this past three gens.
Sony, Steam , Player to be named Later
Microsoft will largely exit the gaming business because they will find the TV entertainment business more lucrative. Nintendo will quit the console business since they realize gimmicks aren’t enough, unlike the wishes of most they will still publish only on their platforms which will handhelds and very underpowered cheap Ouya like min-consoles. They will become the Tiger Electronics of the future, low powered low priced portable gaming machines. Stuff you see in discount bins at 7-11.
Sony will be the last man standing and will try the traditional gaming console one more time with the Playstation 5. They may try to bundle a digital only Playstation 5 inside their TVs
Steam and the other digital PC services will be full competition for Sony as the ease of PC gaming on the TV becomes easier and easier.
Someone else will enter the gaming market, most likely Apple or possibly Google or maybe even Yahoo. And they will be strong enough to make another go in next next gen but they won’t win this round.
After a drastic price cut Sony’s Vita will finally start to catch on with young kids and parents who want to play classic games and don’t have much tv time. The Vita against all odds will battle back to relevance against the 3DS.
It won't be successful, due to lack of clear consumer rationale. But will find niche oddball use as a Fantasy Sports crossover with the X1
Desura brand will be retired, but GoG will continue to operate as a separate brand although their policies will start mirror Steam’s.
The Business of Games
- Activision, Square Enix
Activision will finally overplay its’ hand on it’s mega hits and will be the big shocker. But once Call of Duty and World of Warcraft finally falter and Kotick retires, the publisher will make a rapid descent into a quick chapter 11 bankruptcy as they will fail to replace their money machines. Activision will survive but will be forced to sell Blizzard to a Chinese company to pay off creditors.
While most would assume EA was the one in dire straits, their willingness to change allows them to survive and thrive.
Square Enix will overplay their hand in desperation to save the money pit that is FF XIV and will be forced to break up the company. The remains of Eidos (Tomb Raider, Sleeping Dogs, Hitman) will be acquired by Ubisoft. Final Fantasy and the Squaresoft brands of old will be acquired by Capcom. Nintendo & Sega will acquire the Enix properties such as Dragon Quest and Star Ocean.
In a case of the weak combine to become stronger, the once hated rivals merge to become the ultimate gaming force among young children and pre-teens. Nintendega will focus primarily on being wholesome kid friendly , but parent friendly wallet friendly entertainment. They will make handhelds and Ouya priced mini consoles that are closed environment for TV. Most of the Sega corporate culture and personnel will be jettisoned.
- Gamestop and Best Buy go under
The DRM the publishers mandate will be just strict enough that Gamestop will lose it’s primary appeal to consumers faster than anyone realizes, which causes their major profit center to collapse taking them with it. The digital future is much closer than the console makers realize.
Best Buy will be brought to heel by showrooming and severe mismanagement. Best Buy will survive as primarily as an appliance company, but much smaller than they are today. The twin killing of these two gaming retail giants will cause massive disruptions in the hardware supply chain. The Console makers will scramble to find new channels to get their consoles to people as Target and Wal-Mart start to use their new leverage on themto squeeze their margins for better deals.
Sony will make the transition to digital day1 AAA releases faster and better than Microsoft which will help them survive to the next round, although they will have trouble moving hardware until they sign an exclusive distribution deal with Amazon. Betting on the right horse in the e-commerce race Sony will rapidly take market share. Sony will close their remaining Sony Style stores as part of the Amazon deal.
Microsoft having burned bridges in the indie community who are digital heavy will make the transition as well but struggle for titles in the transition period. They will attempt to get their console in unusual brick and mortar retailers such as grocery stores, pharmacies and Home Depot, their Microsoft stores and a web store of their own, but their refusal to bend over to Amazon’s demands will cost them dearly in terms of install base in the long term as gamers move their buying more or less completely online.
Once the digital only future arrives early due to retailer bankruptcies, consumers balk at 59.99 for something they can't resell. In desperation to lure them back Sony and Microsoft begin a desperate price war and ultimately do win most back. Developers respond by pushing more and more content to DLC initially and trying to use episodic gaming where creatively possible.
After one too many customers gets burned by a Season Pass left unfulfilled, Microsoft steps in and sets hard mandatory content and pricing guidelines for all DLC. Sony as usual of late gets to play the good guy with publishers but still benefits. Consumers win, and overall DLC is a better experience next gen
Gamera will also have the option of buying just the single player or multiplayer component of games once Publishers feel confident piracy is less of a worry than present.
The console viewing experience for whatever reason just isn't impulsive enough for the F2P crowd. As a result most of the F2P games never pass quality control for the consoles and the ones that do have very sparsely populated communities which kill them off quickly. They remain primarily on mobile and PC and continue to grow rapidly there
The biggest surprise of next gen is the revival of AA games. As games go more digital their prices become more elastic allowing mid budget games a chance to thrive once more now being sold in the 25-35 dollar range. Most Sports and Puzzle games now fall into this realm.
Indie games will lose a lot of prominence as result but will still exist.
Trends and Gameplay
VR and the return of single player gaming.
No surprise here. The Oculus rift and things like it will change the ways games are played. They are something the consumer instantly gets how it makes their gaming experience different unlike the multimedia functions of X1 or the streaming services like Gaikai of the PS4. . But it’s a very solitary experience and one that de-emphasizes achievements and social networking. VR will be very rough at first but will be really getting going by the end of the gen.
Gaming will return to its’ escapism roots.
Partly part on the VR revolution and partly by new AA publishers and new foreign publishers. We will see tons of new titles. Most of the hits of tomorrow will be not be the hits of yesterday.
r – Mutants/Chimaeras/Clones
Gone are the day of the Zombie. As gene splicing and cloning tech improves worldwide, the public’s fascination and fear of them will percolate over into entertainment. Zombies and other supernatural threats will fade from popularity to be replaced by Science abominations. The Graveyard will be supplanted by the Mad Corporate Scientist Laboratory.
– First Person Parkour and Face Reading
Somebody will figure out how to make movement fun in vr. Mirror’s Edge will be a tantalizingly vision of future Action Adventure games.
As visual tech, mo cap and things like it improve we’ll be asked more and more to “read” NPC faces to guess their characters inner thoughts and feelings as a common basic mechanic. Whether it be for Phoenix Wright crime dramas or Bioware/Quantic Dream like character interaction.
Games and Genres
– Survival Horror and Racing, Flight Sim
Survival horror will surprisingly supplant First Person Shooters as the most popular genre. The Oculus Rift and its successors will make Horror games and survival games engrossing and terrifying in a way they’ve never been. VR will be the motion control of its era and will have the most “wow” factor to the average consumer.
Racing will finally get a compelling First Person mode thanks to VR, which leads to a huge proliferation of them.
- Forsenic mystery, Interactive Drama
The oculus rift and things like will give birth to a whole set of new genres we’ve never seen before and will revive ill thought of and nice genres such as Adventure games
A whole Slew of solve the case CSI like games actually become fun and popular as La Noire like improvements to Ai plus VR make crime franchise port over to games off of Tv.
Heavy rain, Beyond Two souls and the Walking Dead are just the precursor to the further fusing of TV and video games. While VR will recruit many casuals into the hobby, Interactive Drama will be what keeps them there.
- Assassin’s Creed, Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, Mass Effect, Call of Duty, Metal Gear
Ubisoft will run that puppy into the ground. They already are. Assassin’s Creed will be the biggest missed opportunity of the gen as the mechanics of the gen will suit it well. Next Next gen it will come back.
Square will put all its’ eggs in the FF XIV basket will backfire causing their single player games to be badly underproduced and will crash the company, taking Final Fantasy and Dragon Quest with it. (for awhile)
Without the Doctors’s leadership, Bioware will lose their vision for Mass Effect and the franchise will drift into mediocrity before going dormant. Dragon Age may or may not go along with it
Call of Duty will suffer Madden fatigue, while it won’t go away it will become stale and significantly less popular. Destiny will lay out a new shooter blueprint that makes call of duty seem like old news. Battlefield will handle the change better as EA will change their formula more readily.
Metal Gear’s death will be a slow one. The endless hype train and non-finale games will eventually wear out even the most passionate Kojima fans. But it will be gradual.
- Mega Man, Silent Hill, Prince of Persia, Burnout, F-Zero, Sports Games
Capcom, finally exhausting the annual Mega Man machine and out of ideas, turns the franchise over to western hands. Mega Man experiences a Retro Studios Metroid Prime-like reimagining to great critical and financial success.
Capcom promptly kills the good feelings by promptly re-annualizing Mega Man and rereleasing versions of it every 6 months
Silent Hill will become a mega hit due to the Oculus Rift’s impact on horror games, it or something like it will be the Call of Duty of the next gen.
After creatively running out of ideas for Assassin’s Creed, Prince of Persia will find new life yet again as a Mirror’s Edge like clone in VR.
As racing Games become in once again thanks to VR. Pretty much they all attempt to come back to some degree as fighting games did this gen. But Burnout will take the cake as it meshes the thrill of driving with arcade insanity.
Nintendo in their desperation to save the Wii-U and love of gimmicks will embrace the Oculus Rift first and use F-Zero and Wave Race as proof of concepts. The Nintenwheel will be their latest neat peripheral that doesn’t have enough good games..
The integration of X1's fantasy Sports capabilities + the lower pricing of Sports Games will help them achieve Mega popularity once again.
- Dragon’s Dogma/Deep Down, Dark Souls,As of yet Unknown Chinese titles, Destiny
Dragon’s Dogma II will fuse the best of Monster Hunter, Dark Souls and Skyrim gameplay into a smash hit. Japanese gameplay plus western design aesthetics creates massive worldwide appeal.
Chinese developers will start to eye the west and will start to port their titles over with little success at first but will improve rapidly. They will have an inherent advantage over Western and Japanese developers as they will be given increasingly preferential treatment by the Chinese gov’t allowing them effectively dominate China free of foreign competition giving a base market and cash flow to outspend their competition. The Chinese gov’t will also fund them, in an attempt to help spread China’s cultural influence.
Destiny is made by Bungie, they will do what Bungie does which is make great games. It will be the redefinition of FPSes we’ve been waiting for.
There will be tons of lawsuits mainly involving Kinect. Whether it be Kinect spying too much (recording sensitive conversations between congress people, recording affairs) or not enough (heart sensor noticing heart attacks in users but not calling paramedics), Microsoft will fight an endless legal and PR war over the device.
Tieing the Age of Lawsuits, VR will actually kill people or rather there will be many more gaming deaths because some people will become complete shut in their virtual world and forget to eat etc.
VR will be blamed for everything from Diabetes to Divorce on the nightly news. Pundits will decry that the youth of today are anti-social conveniently ignoring the fact that Gen Xers will perhaps like the device the most.
as their older games stop functioning enmasse with Windows 10 Steam will not compensate users for it. Microsoft deliberately coded Windows that way to punish Steam as competitor. People will lose some faith in some of Steam's promises as a result.
Chinese developed games will represent 3 out of the top ten selling games if the gen in the US by the time it’s over.
In about a week voting will open for the cover player for Madden NFL 13. If you love your team at all I beg you to vote for a player not on your team's roster. Last Season (likely soon to be former) Cleveland Browns Running Back Peyton Hillis graced the cover as winner of the second ever Madden fan poll beating out Michael Vick.
and I think no one has ever been as Madden cursed as he has been.
So who is Peyton Hillis and what happened to him? Well let me share with you a Cleveland fan's perspective.
From Zero to Hero
After a productive yet unremarkable 4-year career as a Fullback and return man at University of Arkansas, Hillis was taken in the 7th round of the 2008 NFL draft by the Denver Broncos. While with Denver Hillis scarcely played and was riddled with injuries, despite occasional flashes of brilliance. He was unceremoniously dumped by the Broncos to the Cleveland Browns along with a 6th round pick in exchange for under-performing QB Brady Quinn in 2010.
With Cleveland in 2010, Hillis quickly ascended to the starting Hb role in Week 3 after injuries decimated the roster. For the rest of 2010 Hillis put gaudy numbers in Eric Mangini's run centric offense. He won AFC offensive player of the week in Week 9, becoming the first Brown in nearly twenty years to win the honor and ends up being runner up in MVP voting.
In addition to his performance, Hillis' good ole boy hardworking blue collar nature persona (and enormous biceps) made him a fan favorite. For his breakout season Hillis was voted by Madden fans to the Cover of Madden NFL 12.
From Hero to Zero
Almost immediately things started to go wrong for Hillis.
Late 2010 - Early 2011 - His coach Eric Mangini was fired by Club president Mike Holmgren and replaced by Pat Shurmur, a coach who runs a pass heavy West Coast Offense. Going into Camp Hillis was informed that his role was likely going to be changed in the new offense and that he would need to improve his blocking. The NFL players are locked out preventing Hillis from learning the new offense
Early 2011 - Hillis fired his agent Jimmy Sexton and hires Kelly Masters, in July she is fired and he hires Kennard McGuire, making McGuire Hillis's third agent in 2011.
Summer 2011- Once in camp on the advice of McGuire, Hillis begins to grumble on and off the record about the Browns not offering him the extension and raise he wants. Club president Holmgren claims he is trying "like crazy" to sign Hillis. Hillis who makes $500,500 in 2011 is believed to be asking for $12 million in guaranteed money. When another Brown gets an extension, Hillis starts to go public with his feelings about being "disrespected" by The Browns. Reporters start to cover the Hillis story closely. The Cleveland Plain Dealer quotes him as saying later on- "You feel unappreciated because you want to get something done and nothing has gotten done at this point. As far as that goes, you don't know the ultimate feelings in the end of what's going on up top. You take it with a grain of salt and you keep moving on." http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/10/cleveland_browns_rb_peyton_hil_6.html
late Summer- Hillis struggles to pick up the new offense due to the NFL lockout shortened camp. The new offense requires more blocking and outside the tackle running for Hillis, neither of which are his forte. Hillis tweaks his chronically weak hamstrings late in camp.
Weeks 1-2 - Hillis is largely ineffective in his limited appearances, his effort is questioned by Browns beat reporters. Head coach Shurmur reduces his workload in practice on concerns Hillis is over working himself.
Week 3 - Hillis sits out of the Miami Dolphins game at the last minute on the advice of his agent, due to fear of him getting hurt since he was recovering from "Strep Throat and Flu-like symptoms". The Browns narrowly win a close game against a perceived inferior opponent and some of the team internally blames Hillis. Hillis tells the media it was his agent's fault.
After Week 3 - Qb Colt McCoy and the offense hold their first intervention team meeting with Hillis about his attitude and commitment to the team.
Week 6 - Hillis pulls his hamstring early in the Oakland game. Browns PR personnel fail to report this to the tv media covering the game and announcers mistakenly conclude on air he has been benched. Hillis is inactive for several weeks, ultimately he misses 5 games throughout the season. During one of the weeks he is "rehabing" he secretly goes to Arkansas to get married. Browns mgt is not pleased.
Mid October/Trade deadline - Browns Gm Tom Heckert and head coach Shurmur hint that they are no longer certain they want Hillis Back in 2012-2013 season, Browns first deny and then entertain to trade offers for Hillis. Hillis is not traded.
Early November - Hillis skips a Halloween charity fund raiser for the Cleveland Boys & Girls Club with no explanation. Co-host and Former Cleveland browns Center LeCharles Bentley strongly criticizes him publicly. Hillis blames his brother Kyle Hillis (and business manager) for not telling him the correct time.
Early December- In a press conference stating that he wants to return to Cleveland and retire as a Brown, Hillis instead talks mainly about endorsing Ron Paul for president in 2012 which cause more angst in parts of heavily democratic Cleveland.
Late season - Hillis seems to reforms his attitude, refuses to talk about his contract issues any further and performs well in the remainder of the season, including a 100+ yd game against Baltimore. The Browns finish 4-12. Despite early in the season denying the existence of the Madden Curse, Hillis now blames his poor performance in the season on it. The Cleveland Plain Dealer quotes him as saying- "No doubt about it," Hillis finally admitted Thursday. "Things haven't worked to my favor this year. There's a few things that happened that made me believe in curses. Ain't no doubt about it." http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2011/12/cleveland_browns_peyton_hillis_11.html
Post season- Browns pass on franchising Hillis for 7.7 million, Heckert say Hillis is welcome back at "the right price' (I.e. a lot less less money than the franchise tag). Hillis fires agent Kennard McGuire. [UPDATE 3/1/2012 - Hillis apparently has contemplated retirement (and may still be) to pursue a career with the Central Intelligence Agency- no joke]
Change from 2010
It's been a circus for Hillis and Browns fans for a year now. For most seemingly affected by the Madden curse usually one aspect of their career suffers a setback. In Peyton's case not only Hillis' on the field performance suffer, his health suffered, his wealth suffered as the likelihood of him getting a big money contract from the Browns severely diminished and his reputation among fans and peers was severely tarnished.
If nothing else this season probably cost Peyton Hillis tens of million so dollars in potential lifetime earnings. I think most expected a come back to earth season for Hillis, but this is incredible.
And that's why in my opinion no cover player of Madden has yet suffered such a complete collapse in prospects and reputation as Peyton Hillis has in their cover year.
...We’re getting a demo of using the “Kinect” controller to interact with episodes of Sesame Street. The young assistant on stage demonstrates using a throwing gesture to help out Grover by “throwing” a coconut that appears to land in Grover’s box of coconuts I the episode playing on screen.
Ballmer announces Kinect will be coming to Windows on February 1st.
And that’s pretty much it. I closing, Seacrest asked Ballmer what he thought the future would bring. Ballmer, in a spoof of his legendary boisterous style, remarked “Metro, Metro, Metro,” referring to the name for the Windows 8 user interface. Then he added, “Windows! Windows! Windows!
Molten lava is nothing like water. Sure, everyone thinks that liquid rock (magma) is going to behave like any other liquid (e.g., water), but there are some key physical properties that tell us it just isn’t the case. Let’s compare!
Water has a density of 1000 kg/m and a viscosity of 0.00089 Pa*s.
Lava has a density of 3100 kg/m and a viscosity of 100-1000 Pa*s....
Do you suppose throwing yourself into lava would have the same effect as falling into a lake? Probably not. The average human has a density of ~1010 kg/m, so a little bit more dense than water.....If you are less than one-third the density of basalt (and you are, admit it), it is going to be next to impossible to sink into that liquid.
This is going to bug the crap out of me now every time I see something like this
Now this, this is very cool research work being done on Starcraft 2.
Apparently somecognitive scientists are reviewing SC2 replay files to see how players learn and how it affects their cognitive abilities. One scientist in particular, Mark Blair from Simon Fraiser University has a study ongoing called "Skillcraft". Seems like early indications are that high level sc2 play could actually be pretty beneficial in improving multi-tasking function and staying composed in a crisis. Not all studies show this though, so jury's still out on what the cogntiive community's consensus will ultimately end up being.
most studies like this that I've seen have usually focused on FPS games, so it's neat to see someone look at an RTS. Given the competitive play, replay, and sheer number of players SC2 does seem like a fertile ground for this kind of thing.
my favorite parts of the SciAm story
“From the perspective of the cognitive motor system, StarCraft is the most interesting thing you could do online,” Blair says....
In the last decade, however, some experiments have begun to suggest that video games might indeed teach transferable skills. Cognitive scientist Daphne Bavelier at the University of Rochester and her colleagues have used video games to investigate what kinds of learning humans are good at, and along the way they’ve turned up some promising, if modest, examples of brain training...
Early results suggest that gamers may have faster visual reaction times, enhanced visuomotor coordination, and heightened ability to visualize spatial arrangements. They may also be better at rotating an object in their minds and may distinguish more deftly between the trajectories of moving objects. Players might also have an edge when paying attention to several objects at once.
One of the studies mentioned in the article (this one by Josh Lewis at UC San Diego), also concluded that having high APM is one of the essential factors to winning.
They tracked several measures, including how many actions players took per minute and the distances between the locations where actions occurred across the map. Not surprisingly, they found that players who made the most moves tended to win. Of more interest was the second calculation. Distributing actions more widely across a map, which the authors argue reflects a player’s ability to distribute attention, also correlated highly with winning.
Alright, I thought the thing about dudes being into the new My Little Ponies was funny at first, but this is taking the joke pretty far. Man I don't even know what to think of this fan project by (or how much time they must have already put into it)